Member Info for chilting

There is only one way to look at the world oil market - totally oversupplied.

There is only one way to look at storage capacity - more or less full.

Simple law of economics when supply exceeds demand, price falls.

So until demand starts to pick up again we are in the sh*t.

Yes, deal on oil done.

World markets will focus on other issues now - US Banks reporting this week - could be bad or very bad.

Time for oil to follow the market rather than lead it - very unpredictable - nervous time for traders - could spin anyway - no judgement call just luck - might as well put everything on the 3.00 at Doncaster - if they were running.

I am a Ocado investor - I don't have a stake in M&S.

Ocado have certainly benefited from the Coronavirus crisis - sales have been phenomenal - a sort of extended Christmas - consumers want home delivery like never before.

The point is that there was no way that Ocado could cope with the demand - the scale of the business just isn't there but the demand is - not just for the time of the coronavirus - but throughout the year.

I think that there is a very valid case for a major expansion by M&S of the Ocado home delivery business in the UK - a real chance for M&S to get back to being the major force in UK retailing.

The delivery service is much more up together now - at least in our part of West Sussex.

I was able to book another slot yesterday to get my second slot in two weeks - availability is good - most items are available or a good sub - promotions are still mainly absent so margins have certainly improved.

I think that with M&S participation there is now a very valid case for a major investment to ramp up the Ocado home delivery service in the UK. This would obviously benefit Ocado but to M&S it could be a major game changer for the direction of their business.

From my observations that is certainly the case since at last summer when I think the last load went to the US.

Up until then most loads went to the US - since then non.

NO now unloading in Rotterdam at the dock that refines bunker fuel.

A good solid RNS - Enquest is as well positioned as it can be for what the market throws at it.

The reduction in break even is welcome - hopefully in the long term that will yield more profit rather than just ensuring financial survival.

Focusing the business on the three core areas - Kraken, Magnus and Malaysia is a bit of a reversal, brought about by market conditions - depleted assets seem to be off the agenda. Probably a good thing.

gkb
Only time will tell - certainly agree that tomorrows meeting won't provide any respite - maybe a modest recovery - hopefully to cover Enquest's break even - though that might be AB's new break even of $35 after the cutbacks.

RNS - Results tomorrow - a real make or break day!!!

The OPEC+ strategy of squeezing down the price of oil with the help of the downturn created by the coronavirus has clearly worked and had the desired effect of knocking back other producers especially shale producers in the US.

But to win this war and knock out other producers for the long term it will be necessary for OPEC+ to develop this strategy - otherwise they would have endured financial pain for no gain.

So they have to fix their own oil price - a price where they are happy to sell crude at to gain some income but where other producers cannot produce enough profit.

They can easily do this now because they have control of supply - to keep this control they can simply flood the market when the oil price starts to rise beyond their target price.

This strategy of low price control will last until OPEC+ consider they have knocked out enough producers to cut available supply. Only then will they release the oil price to surge up towards and beyond $70 and probably top $100.

They will have a big ally as time goes by - inflation and the resulting rise in interest rates created by the rise in money supply as a result of the coronavirus.

How long it will take for the OPEC+ strategy to pan out depends on so many factors that it is impossible to predict but it must be years rather than months.

The predictable fall ahead of the OPEC+ meeting - a sort of commission for those in the know.

I guess Enquest will continue to follow Brent - especially if there is some downside - the volatile traders shares like Tullow will make or break a few traders over the next few days depending on how the cookie crumbles.

The hook-up finished soon after I looked this morning lasting about 29 hours in total - NO has a draught of 12.9m - so I think we can put this down as another 500k load - she is now well on her way to Rotterdam - probably to the part of the port that mixes crude for bunker fuel - will confirm that later.

28.5 hours and counting.

NO is hooked up again to complete loading after a weather break - it looks she hooked up at about 16.00BST - so in total that's about 15 hours so far.

No weather problems at all now.

An accelerated book build is the most likely - they don't need much more than working capital - fund raising is over in a few hours.

Maybe even one of the big name customers will take a stake.

Both options would mean a bit of dilution but I think the SP would certainly rocket.

A slow rise for Enquest is totally normal - it can linger for weeks or sometimes months when it is clear it should be rising - very frustrating - low volume is usually the problem but this time its all down to Brent - it has to be just about the most lacklustre stock on the market - but the potential is there and eventually it will come good.

Yes, there are some amazing trading opportunities at the moment but you can just as easily get badly burnt.

Take a look at this chart for example -
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/charts?epic=CCL&period=MONTH1&compareTo=&type=line&filtersubmitbtn=Draw

Market optimism improved this morning as virus cases fall in Europe - Equities up in Asia, expected to follow in Europe - Brent was down after news of postponed OPEC+ meeting - now recovering towards Friday close.

Market optimism improved this morning as virus cases fall in Europe - Equities up in Asia, expected to follow in Europe - Brent was down after news of postponed OPEC+ meeting - no recovering towards Friday close.

NO pulled away from AK just after I last looked so the first hook-up lasted 13.25 hours.

It looks like the weather will be ok again by around 16.00 BST tomorrow for round two.