Member Info for chilting

gkb
Its simply a matter of matching supply and demand - when the main players get their act together that is what we will see - cuts all round - we wont see Brent at $70 anytime soon but it is in every ones interests to get the price to at least $40.

Can we try and be rational here - Brent has only been at these levels for a few short weeks - the whole oil industry needs higher prices - as soon as the Black Swan flies away and the main players get their act together and cut production we will see a return to Brent at $40 - $50 in no time.

The hook-up lasted until about 03.00GMT this morning - 19.5 hours.

The stormy weather has come earlier than forecast, so it looks like IK will have to wait until conditions improve before the loading can be completed - if the forecast is correct this won't be until Wednesday afternoon or even Thursday.

11.5 hours and counting.

It looks like the hook-up should be finished before the weather takes a turn for the worst tomorrow, but it will be tight.

https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/viking_north_sea

Yes, but what is the alternative - no players can survive crude at these low prices for long.

As I have said they have to balance supply and demand just enough to stifle US shale production and enable survival - that would be Brent at $40-45?

The thing is that things always seem much worst than they actually are - this is always the case with black swan events.

Looking back for example - who would have said the Braer wouldn't have caused devastating damage to Shetland when she released 85,000 tonnes of crude into the sea - we always overreact.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-42577914

I think the situation is reversible - its only a few weeks since Brent was trading at $50 - MBS and Putin have had their shock and awe - providing they sort things now the damage will be minimal but the effect will be desirable - but it will need some big cuts by all.

It does now seem increasingly likely that we are going to see some sort of agreement between OPEC+ and the US to cut production.

Not because any side wants to, but, the reality of their predicament with the black swan and looming recession is now their only option. Also they can only fill up their storage capacity once.

So we could see some sort of getting together - hopefully over the next 10 days - and a real effort to balance supply and demand. However, these are political decisions, so logic may not rule - if they only do enough to get Brent back to $40 that would make all the difference.

Hook-up 07.30GMT

IK is less than an hour away from hook-up.

That's just nine days from when the last tanker left [actually 8 days - but the last load had weather delays].

There should just be time to complete loading this time before the weather turns stormy for a few days.

Presumably promotional activity has been reduced - not just by Ocado but by other supermarkets as well - so margins have improved - that could add significantly to the bottom line.

$334,000,000,000 profit for the shorts from US market sell off.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-shortselling/u-s-market-sell-off-brings-short-sellers-344-billion-profit-idUKKBN21811E?il=0

AK has now rotated around for a northerly hook-up, so IK is now well positioned for a hook-up.

But that doesn't look as though its going to happen today.

No sign of a hook-up anytime soon - IK is 16.4 nautical miles to the north west of AK and currently hook-up would need to be from the south.

MBS must be thinking - isn't it great when a plan starts to come together.

Don't forget - what we need is for the US to cut production - if that happens quickly and OPEC+ follow the lead and also cut then Brent will quickly push back to acceptable levels.

The only option for the US oil industry is to fall into line and cut production - other than that they face oblivion.

Sorry that's 7.9 nautical miles to the north WEST of AK.

Ingrid Knutsen is just 7.9 nautical miles to the north east of AK - so we could see a hook-up tomorrow morning.

The weather is set fine until later on Monday.

A hook-up tomorrow would be 8 days since the last tanker left [calculated less one day because the last hook-up was weather delayed twice, part way through].

ShrewdDude
Just in case you haven't noticed - CCL has no income at the moment - just expenses - the Black Swan is going to make a massive dent in their finances - to suggest this will be back to £20+ by the end of the year is bizarre.

Yes, it will be a buy when the dust has settled but it will take 2 or 3 years to show a good return.

Yes, to early to come back in here yet - but when the time is right this will certainly be a great buy if you are content to hang on to your shares for at least 2-3 years - recovery here will be very slow.

One way that oil companies can protect themselves from fluctuations in the price of oil is to diversify.
Total Oil are using their expertise in the offshore oil industry to develop a floating windfarm off the Pembrokeshire Coast.
Something that Enquest would be very capable of emulating in the North Sea I think.

https://theenergyst.com/total-plans-floating-wind-turbines-in-celtic-sea/