Member Info for chilting

Todays bounce back is very welcome - lets hope something concrete comes out of OPEC+ and the US and that this is the first step back.

Tom
Please don't think that we are deramping Enquest we are simply facing the reality of the current situation and looking at the most likely way forward.

Tom
Like I said - one step at a time - first step Brent back to $38 - Enquest can cover its costs - hedging is doing that job at the moment but that won't last forever.

Tom
Enquest doesn't have a future with Brent at these levels.

The country and the world is already in recession as a result of corvid.

Oil demand is at an all time low.

You have to face facts.

gkb
We have to take this one step at a time - Brent back to $38 Enquest breakeven has to be the first target - hopefully by June when the corvid virus effects begin to recede.

romaron

This might be what Trump wants - he was goading Iran on twitter just a couple of days ago -

"Upon information and belief, Iran or its proxies are planning a sneak attack on U.S. troops and/or assets in Iraq. If this happens, Iran will pay a very heavy price, indeed!"

I am not sure that is correct Tom - gkb is a realist - this is going to be a long haul.

A few observations from yesterdays shop-
All promotions have virtually disappeared - most products are being sold at full price.
There are obviously supply issues on lots of products but substitutes can be found for most things.
Ocado are restricting the amount of product that you can buy on a whole range of products.
Its very easy to run up a big bill very quickly!!!

The point is gkb that Putin cannot be seen to backdown - that is not the Russian way.

All the backing down will be done by KSA - Russia will be the victors.

The outcome will be the same - cuts by all - lets just hope Brent rises at least towards Enquest break even - that might be a tough ask.

I just managed to get a slot and ordered for delivery tomorrow - the first time in about three weeks - I have a midweek smart pass.

Having said that I am not selling - although I reduced my holding some months ago.

Kraken
I am sure that there will be a big spike eventually but with a recession looming and the big fall in demand for crude I think that it is a long way into the future - not 2021 - more like 2022-23.

Set the clock back - not to 2016 but to 2014 - that is the recovery timescale I think - look at the charts and you will see what I mean.

I think that its fairly obvious that corvid 19 has massively enhanced Ocado's prospects.

Ocado are the world leader in internet grocery solutions - retailers around the world have seen that online is the best option - consumers around the world have seen that online is the best option.

The only failure has been lack of capacity - Ocado now have the solutions ready to fill that capacity.

China stocking up now means that the oil price will be lower for a much longer period - especially if they increase their storage capacity.

In the long run it has to be China that pulls the world out of recession - cheap oil will help them do that but it wont help the oil industry for quite a while.

I can see Brent below $40 right into 2021 and maybe even longer.

It looks like the three main players are now positioning themselves either for political and economic conflict or compromise.

Trump seems ready to go to his normal default option of sanctions - Russia and Saudi now have to give a bit.

We have to hope that Russia and Saudi have gained their objective and that they now cut production to match demand - its pointless for them to continue to produce at current levels anyway because there is no place to store the crude.

Concerted action would obviously help prop up Brent and hopefully move it towards Enquest's break even of $38 but this is going to be a very long haul. The only short term way out is war in the Middle East.

Yes, EP will just fade away in Alang - just like Navion Britannia.

I guess the Indians are going to be busy over the next few years.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:370032/mmsi:-9145188/imo:9145188/vessel:NAVION_BRITANNIA
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000gjyz/disclosure-series-2-7-a-deadly-trade

I wonder if removal of the FPSO to shore for recycling is just another way of saying that she is heading for Alang.

I am sure that w will get a chance to order at some stage - maybe every three weeks?

This gives an excellent overview of the development of the pandemic in different countries.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-52066105/coronavirus-us-death-rates-v-china-italy-and-south-korea

Alongside servicing the vulnerable customers on their database, Ocado do seem to have a strategy to service their smart pass customers.
At the moment they are inviting anytime smart pass holders to order in manageable sized batches for a fixed period by email.
Hopefully this will be followed by customers with mid week smart passes - this process may have already started?
I have a mid week smart pass but have so far been unable to order.
If you have been invited to place an order you can log in via a dedicated link.