Member Info for chilting

I guess no one's selling at that price and no one's buying - hence the price collapse - if no one wants WTI at any price the price will collapse simply because the market isn't there???

Is WTI really below $5 or am I seeing things!!!!

No hook up as yet - 13 days since last tanker left - NK is a large shuttle tanker so the load could be larger than average especially if its on its way directly to the bunkering fuel blending facility at Rotterdam.

No action as yet.

Smile spindok - ITX are up 25% - could it be this time - or is it another false dawn.

The question is - what wouldn't Trump do to get re-elected - he sacrificed his wife's reputation last time so what does it matter the fate of a few hundred thousand Americans - most of them would be ethnics would have voted Democrat anyway - maybe its part of his re-election plan.

A loan could be US Government could be the best news - maybe enough to plug the gap before the cash from orders comes in.
Not sure how that would work though as ITX hasn't reached the commercialisation stage yet - these loans are usually to bale out profitable companies - unless its different in the US.

Other than that an accelerated bookbuild seems the most likely outcome.

I have been so frantically busy lately that I have only just looked and seen that Heather Knutsen is just 11.5 nautical miles south east of AK - she arrived this morning - hook-up doesn't look likely at the moment.

Weather is almost flat calm and staying that way.

e121
Its a relevant point - will Trump sacrifice thousands of peoples lives by opening up the country to early so that he can get the US economy moving quicker so that it boosts his chances of re-election in November.
More to the point - will the Democrat Governors play ball.
The reckless actions of Trump - for pure personal gain - could save the world from recession and we might even see Brent over $40 by the end of the year - now that would be ironic - however it makes me feel sick in the stomach!

That was beautiful Pele.

There is certainly a sense almost of normality returning to home delivery - delivery slots every 7 days - which is amazing considering the current circumstances - even some of the promotions are back with a vengeance - they are still going absolutely flat out in Christmas mode - fantastic stuff!!!

I must say BTFATH - you might not have the patience of a proper investor but you do seem to have this trading lark sussed.

And more good news - this is from the latest email sent to customers -

"We have some good news. You can now book Ocado deliveries more frequently (one delivery every 7 days). You’ll now also see slot availability up to 21 days in advance.
This means you can book up to 3 deliveries over the next 21 days.
We’ve been able to unlock some extra capacity because:
• We’ve limited the number of weekly deliveries to each customer, and the number of items in each delivery.
• Our amazing IT and logistics teams have come up with solutions which have enabled us to run more efficiently in these demanding circumstances.
• Every corner of our operation is working at maximum capacity, powered by our incredible warehouse staff and drivers.
Thank you for shopping with Ocado, and for your continued understanding and patience at this time.
Ocado Customer Service team"

e121
I don't think that you are factoring in the effects of a recession enough and how that will dampen demand for oil - not to mention the d word if this carries on into Q3.
That is the principal reason that I don't think Brent will top $40 again this year.

It won't just be the oil price that decides the fate of the US shale industry - it will be who wins the White House.

Looking at a map the majority of shale oil is produced in Republican controlled States - many of them solid Republican - Trump won't concerned that he could loose these states but he will continue his support for the shale industry.

But looking to the North east states there is a significant shale industry is some of the states that swung to him in the last election - so shale could make a difference. He has to therefore do the same for shale as he did for coal in the last election.

Biden on the other hand will I think largely follow the environmental line to push the shale industry into line - particularly gas flaring - and cut production as a consequence - this has to be good news for us.

The media will as always play its part - expect stories of how shale is trashing the environment - especially for the Democratic controlled media.

I think the only way to look at the current situation is by using logic.
1. This is probably the bottom - countries are still in lockdown - oil consumption and confidence is at its lowest.
2. As oil consumption increases and traders can see through the crisis a bit of confidence will return and the oil price will start to slowly rise.
3. High supply levels will mean any rise in oil prices will be slow and with recession looming demand will stay subdued.
4. Money supply has increased dramatically in most economies that will lead to inflation and higher interest rates - probably hindering economic recovery and depressing demand for oil still more.

Personally I don't think that Brent is going to breach $40 again this year and it is difficult to see it doing much better in 2021.

Although at some stage the fall out of all this has to be - using logic again - that demand will eventually dramatically exceed supply - simply because of a combination of company failures, lack of investment and high interest rates.

So if you are investing in oil fancy hanging around until 2022 anyone?

It is as I have said all along there is no feud between KSA and Russia this is an OPEC+ strategy to use the virus and their actions to crash the price of oil, knock out the competition - especially shale - and then when they see the time is right they will develop the strategy to bring the oil price back up again - how long that will take during a recession is any ones guess.

It has to be seen as a KSA Russia feud otherwise they would have been openly guilty of price fixing - doing it in this under hand way was their way of getting around that and screwing Trump - just like the US using their laws to resist their own cuts for the last 3 years or so - revenge!!!

romaron
I think that there is a good case to suggest that everyone who has invested in NS oil over the past 5 years or so is a contrarian investor.

However if you diversify your investments into other sectors this is not a problem.

We all know that at some stage the oil price will spike - its just that none of us know when.

Basically follow a contrarian diversification method of investment and you cannot go wrong - if there is such a phrase.

The trouble is that even when demand does pick up there will be so much crude in store that that will have the effect of holding down prices until it starts to be used up - that process could take a long time - especially with the shorts playing the supply is still high game.
Also what happens if Venezuela suddenly gets its act together - more cheap crude floods the market.

Personally I think gkb is a realist - we all have to face the economic facts at the moment - until the Black Swan flies away we are all stuffed - there is no clarity.