Member Info for chilting

Fantastic 26 hours - HK topped 13.3 on ballast - on her way to an STS with Eurochampion 2004 in Scapa Flo - not to Greece this time - although they did win in 2004 - but all the way to Singapore.

I think that its true to say that out of control production by US shale producers has done more to hold down the price of oil over the last three years than anything else apart maybe from Trump's leadership and his anti China actions.

The price action since March has been mainly as a result of Corvid but if the US hadn't grabbed oil market share like it has over the last three years I don't think we would have been in such a mess as we are now.

The justice of the situation is that its the US producers who will take the biggest hit and it might even contribute to Trump loosing in November - cheats never prosper!

This snippet from West Sussex CC gives a good idea of UK traffic numbers -

"Before “lockdown” was announced, the county’s traffic counters recorded a daily total of about 165,000 vehicles on weekdays. In the first three weeks after 23 March, that figure was frequently about 60,000 vehicles a day. But the figures since last Monday (20 April) show an increase to about 72,000 vehicles a day."

A question for the shale industry watchers -
How many of the small producers do you think will survive this oil price slump?
The point being that the big players are likely to match output to demand in a way that hasn't happened in the past and if they are producing most of the US output then oil price stability will follow.

25.5 hours and counting.

Welcome to the new era Jan2 - its all up-up-up from here!!!

Just when we need our politicians to show some leadership and pull us out of this mess we get this from a man who has totally no regard for anything else than being re-elected.
This is no time for recriminations - all Trump will do is delay the recovery.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/dollar-up-asian-stocks-slip-as-u-s-pins-blame-for-virus-on-china-idUKKBN22G001

History will judge just how ludicrous it is to switch to vehicles powered by a relatively scarce recourse like lithium - a real dead end technology - the Chinese and the Japanese are already looking at alternatives.

Oil will be around for a while yet, plenty more opportunities for boom and bust.

It will be hydrogen and steel cell batteries that will eventually power vehicles and the grid but any change will be gradual with an interchange between natural gas and hydrogen paving the way.

Hook up was around 16.00BST this afternoon.

It looks like whole communities could disappear in the Permian such is their reliance on the oil industry.
Reversing that decline will be much more difficult than just starting up a few drilling rigs again when the oil price rises again.
A very good article from the NY Times.

It looks like HK is starting to move into position for a hook-up.
She has been moored to the north of AK but unless AK rotates the hook up will be from the south - maybe this afternoon.

Its working out the effect of those traders and hedge funds that are shorting oil at the moment - their level of influence on the market and how long they will influence the market that is the big unknown.
With excess supply in the system how long will their dominance last beyond the end of the coronavirus outbreak.
Only time will tell but at some time the bulls will win - this year? - next year?

What me - I hate the sea and I could never work in an office.

The marginal assets are not actually being decommissioned - as I read it - but just being stood down - presumably when Brent bounces back for what looks like a prolonged period we could see them being exploited again and more importantly profitable.

One of the keystones to Enquest's success has always been exploiting depleted assets - hopefully those day will return.

The last load that HK took to a STS with the tanker ORPHEAS has now reached the Med and is close to Malta but the destination now is Kalamata in Greece - so it looks like there will be another STS - most of the tanker movements to Kalamata are STS - presumably the load will then continue thro the canal to Singapore - just as we have seen before.

This shows I think that the normal routing for Kraken bunker crude is still very much in place - just as it was last year.

I just looked at Orkney Harbour info for Scapa Flo - HK is due there on Tuesday morning - so I guess hook up could be later tomorrow if they keep to time.

No sign of any action yet - NK seems to be just waiting is a AIS dead spot to the north of AK.

We are just 10 days since the last tanker left so there no urgency.

Gilead have apparently been manufacturing Remdesivir at full pelt for the last couple of months.

The latest test results concluded that a 5 day treatment was just effective as a 10 day treatment - therefore that doubles the number of patients they can treat with available stocks.

So it could be that, if effective, Remdesivir could make a big difference in the coming weeks - we shall see.

This is one of those situations where private investors have the edge - we can see the drift to online and have experienced just how busy Ocado are at the moment just by being customers.
Those in the corporate world have to wait to see the actual figures on paper.
Grocery Retailers around the world will be assessing online now in the wake of Corvid - many will find that during the outbreak although their turnover was amazing that didn't show in profits because staff costs were so high.

I will admit to being very negative recently - it is I think pointless saying that in a few months time everything will be back to boom time - it clearly wont - although I think this will be a fairly short recession and hopefully we will get over it much quicker than in 2008.

I still stand by my prediction - based on supply and demand that we won't see Brent rise above $40 until 2021.

But there are green shoots of a recovery, the only problem is will they be dashed by Trump - he is clearly thinking about trade tariffs against China again - so the green shoots could be taken off by a late frost.

This latest tweet from Trump increases the anti -

Concast (@NBCNews) and Fake News@CNN
are going out of their way to say GREAT things about China. They are Chinese puppets who want to do business there. They use USA airwaves to help China. The Enemy of the People!