Member Info for chilting

Tesco could be running into the buffers with inflation and higher staff costs pressing down on their margins.
Also any increase in click and collect and home delivery also cuts into margins because they involve extra staff costs.
Directly competing against the discounters also reduces margins.

M&S have their more efficient Ocado Retail operation and higher margins, therefore, even with lower turnover on food they will outpace Tesco on gross profit.

The only update I found on the US Patent Board site was that an important technical witness for Autostore is due to make a disposition remotely tomorrow to the court.

Booster now attached to MKS and ignited!

I think the biggest headwind next year will be a dramatic fall in value by the big US Growth Stocks.
Investors have been pilling in to the likes of Apple and Tesla with no real regard to the actual value of their investment.

Ocado's SP is at a much more realistic level going into 2022, but could still be pushed back by the market.

However, with good news there is high probability that OCDO could buck the market trend, although it will probably be seen as a rather contrarian investment in 2022.

2021 underlined the importance of having a well balanced portfolio of shares - during 2022, I think that will become even more important with diversification into Value Shares necessary to provide a good balance.

Investing in 2022 could be a case of focussing on your own portfolio while all around you falls apart.

The big losers will I think be the highly overpriced big US Growth Stocks and Cryptocurrency.

Inflation is obviously a problem, as will be the property market in China and the US.

Any predictions at the moment depend on how quickly the Black Swan flies away.
Boris has attached a booster rocket to it, but so far it hasn't fully ignited.

The only company with any real conviction for Hydrogen powered motor vehicles seems to be Toyota.

I guess other companies such as Hyundai, may share the enthusiasm for Hydrogen powered vehicles but take the view that they may be a non starter simply because of the infrastructure needed to refuel. Although local Buses are likely to be the exception because they will only need one refueling point.

However, there are now good signs the Japan may take the plunge with Hydrogen and develop a refuelling network, obviously good news for Toyota, and other Asian companies such as Hyundai could also benefit if they have an active development program in place - hence the intention to still keep research ongoing, but on a reduced level.

Looking from the outside Kraken, there is a very simple answer to build it and they will come that all potential investors will consider.

Its back to the two green lights - good production levels and high Brent.
If one of the lights is red then Enquest is a no no - like it is at the moment after the last two trading updates.
But if both lights turn green and debt is paid down then Romaron will be right.

Just to mention Berkshire Hathaway have now sold their stake in Axalta.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-axalta-51629223275

Lots of small sells - if you look at todays trades you will see what I mean.

OWLS
No actual evidence but the stock out on loan for November was 10.97% - we get the December numbers next week.
Also the way that the SP is moving about during the day would seem to show a level of manipulation in a fairly slack market.
Not that it really matters - just a few shorts taking advantage while things are quite.

Yes, happy new year everyone and good luck with you investments.
2022 looks set to be a good year for value shares - M&S is very likely to be the trailblazer as it surges back into the FTSE100.

I think there is very active shorting - lots of small short term positions - affecting the SP at the moment - they have control.

I guess the expectation is that Autostore have little option but to settle - hence the rise in their SP.

Any settlement would be heavily weighted in Ocado's favour.

A windfall tax would probably just result in decommissioning delays, it therefore makes little sense, but politicians who only think short term may be tempted???

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/government-revenues-from-uk-oil-and-gas-production--2/statistics-of-government-revenues-from-uk-oil-and-gas-production-july-2021

This is the last instalment of this years Christmas ad campaign - Percy Pig has been put to bed for next Christmas - aah!

Now we just need to see the results - hopefully, the best bit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWciSnQ_q7s

Kraken
The crucial info you will get in the next update is the production guidance - this has to be in line with, or above market expectations or there seems little point investing - especially with other commodity stocks expected to carry on doing well in 2022.

Page 4
"That probability has to have increased based on what we know now, which means risk has increased alongside the drop in valuation. The biggest reason we don’t feel comfortable going long AutoStore right now is the uncertainty.

Conclusion
The lawsuit documents state that AutoStore is Ocado’s only competitor in the cubic automated storage and retrieval system market. If true, that means both these firms have a massive blue ocean total addressable market they should be focused on instead of legal battles.

With so much uncertainty surrounding AutoStore’s future, the share price will react in a volatile fashion as more information becomes known. It’s more important for investors to know the outcome – whether good or bad – so that the uncertainty can be removed."
Credit -
https://www.nanalyze.com

Page 3
"The same document also makes mention of a feature AutoStore touted which was specific to grocers. In other words, Ocado may just be focused on keeping AutoStore away from their sacred cow – online grocery and retail automation – which only accounts for 10% of AutoStore’s revenues. Maybe now it’s time for AutoStore to negotiate a way out of this mess so that both companies can focus on doing what they do best – building and deploying warehouse robotics solutions.

Should We Go Long AutoStore?
Here’s the dilemma. Shares of AutoStore have corrected meaningfully upon news of their initial legal loss. Furthermore, we figured out how to purchase shares of AutoStore on the Norwegian Exchange using Interactive Brokers, something we recently received approval for. We can now buy shares of AutoStore, but we need to step back for a moment and consider the risks.

AutoStore hasn’t elaborated on any potential economic damage that may take place from this spat aside from their ongoing legal costs which are not trivial. Here are some numbers to put things in perspective.

AutoStore Legal expenses Q3-2021: $11 million
AutoStore Losses YTD: $53.5 million
Cash on hand Q3-2021: $56.4 million
Our first concern surrounds the ability for AutoStore to continue shelling out money to defend themselves while also covering their losses. They could take on more debt, but that defeats the purpose of their IPO which was to reduce debt. They can sell more equity, but that dilutes existing shareholders. With a great deal of uncertainty surrounding what happens next, we’re hoping that AutoStore gives shareholders some assurance that they’re ready to move past this, even if it means giving up some concessions to Ocado Group.

The IPO filing prospectus from AutoStore provides some color on what possible outcomes might take place in a “worst-case scenario” as follows:

In the event Ocado invalidated all of AutoStore’s asserted patents (a “worst-case” scenario), Ocado would be permitted to continue using and selling the Ocado Smart Platform without concern for AutoStore’s asserted patents.
AutoStore would be required to limit sales to the Red Line systems in the U.S. and Germany (impacting approximately 6% of AutoStore sales based on the current pipeline) and to pay damages which will need to be determined for past infringement.
If AutoStore is unsuccessful in its infringement case in the United Kingdom, AutoStore would likely be liable to pay the other side’s legal costs as agreed or assessed, but under the current pleadings, there is no risk of having to pay other financial compensation, such as damages, to Ocado.
If AutoStore is found to have breached antitrust laws in the United States as a result of its patent infringement actions against Ocado, they may be subject to governmental penalties and court-ordered penalties.
This worst-case scenario is currently viewed as low probability,"

Page 2
What to Do?
AutoStore attacked Ocado in a manner that appeared to be unprovoked, and they lost. Now, they need to go on the defensive. Ocado Group is firing back with a lawsuit in the United States that seeks to “prevent AutoStore from continuing to use its Blackline robot and its Router software system, as well as certain other aspects of its storage system that infringe Ocado’s patents.” They also filed an anti-trust complaint against AutoStore in the U.S., and then filed applications at the US Patent and Trademark Appeal Board for reviews of all AutoStore’s asserted patents. In other words, Ocado has retaliated against AutoStore in a manner that seems to far outweigh the claims initially brought against them. This is akin to a bitter divorce where the attorneys line their pockets with fees while both parties involved lose wealth over time.

Perhaps now is the time for AutoStore to eat some crow and sit down at the negotiating table. With just 10% of revenues coming from Retail & Grocery, AutoStore could forego that focus entirely in exchange for Ocado Group dropping their claims.

AutoStore revenues and clients
Credit: AutoStore
We believe AutoStore made two big mistakes. First, they went after a competitor in a very aggressive manner when only 10% of their revenues were in direct competition with said competitor. Second, they did so with what appears to be a very weak claim. AutoStore’s press release concerning the decision notes that “today’s decision has no impact on AutoStore’s ability to sell its product in the U.S. or globally,” and that the outcome was because “certain of AutoStore’s patents were invalid based on a narrow legal issue.” With a great deal of time and money wasted already, it could only get worse as AutoStore now deals with the much bigger problem of having to play defense.

The most tenured lawyers on this planet can’t look at a court case and predict the outcome, so there’s little point in trying ourselves. However, we can try to speculate as to why AutoStore ****ed off Ocado Group – aside from trying to bar them from doing business in the U.S., of course. One clue can be found in a memorandum filed in response to AutoStore’s motion to dismiss which was denied.

Ocado alleges that AutoStore released a “new” product, on an accelerated timely, that is suspiciously similar to Ocado’s technology, after meeting with Ocado representatives about a business relationship and touring its warehouse facility, which suggests it deliberately copied Ocado’s patented ideas and designs."