Member Info for CaveatEmptor

To be honest, I am not too concerned with this quiet period as many small cap companies go through a 'slow-burn' period whilst getting their ducks in a row.

The main point, from my perspective, is that the company has huge potential and it is on the right track to unlock it.

Based on the expected news flow I expect the SP to at least double in the current quarter, and I am happy enough to sit and wait.

That is why I have been using this period to slowly increase my holding - I'm up to about 15M shares now and will continue to take advantage of any on-going weakness in the SP.

Of course this is only my personal point of view, and is not intended as investment advice for anybody else - as always, DYOR.

ATB

It sounds to me like the model has just about been completed and that our own Geologists are giving it a once-over before release to the market. CB seems to be pleased with the result...

True, Andrew - but I thought that referred to the post-drilling 'phase 2' part of Kalengwa?
The last I heard was that we could send 10% concentrate for processing from the existing tailings dam - and that could be fast-track?

Perhaps, now that CB seems to be in a more communicative mood, he will bring us up to date on Africa as a whole?

I agree completely, Andrew - which is why I think that the real driver of SP in the short term will be confirmation of first income from GF/ BE and commencement of commercial production from FB and Kalengwa - with these three ducks in place we should be immune to any dilution in the foreseeable future - you might even call it Xtract's triple vaccination...But it is of course the FB jab that will give the greatest immunity.

ATB

Not sure there has ever been a single CB interview that has covered all of his companies?

It would certainly be a marathon interview if it were ever to happen...

Not sure what you mean?

Only just over a week since the last comprehensive update on most fronts ( see the link posted by Stevemocal at 18.06 last night) - from which we can expect an update on Eureka drilling in the next few days.

Not sure it is realistic to expect weekly updates - I don't know of any other AIM company that has been more communicative over the last 6 months or so? - Yet CB gets slated for a few days silence!!!

Maybe AIM is not the best place to be for some of the more impatient posters here?

Perhaps CB wants a 'real' AGM for XTR rather than a 'virtual' one, so is delaying as much as possible in the hope that covid restrictions are lifted?
With the company being on the threshold of a potentially transformational 6 months, I would not be surprised.
However, all will become clear soon enough.

Contrast this with the same paragraph from last year's Final Results:

"Upon reviewing those cash flow projections for the forthcoming twelve months, the directors consider that the Company is likely to require additional financial resources in the twelve-month period from the date of approval of these financial statements to enable the Company to fund its current operations and to meet its commitments. Furthermore, the Group incurs corporate overhead costs on an ongoing basis. In the going concern review, the Group has reviewed further cash savings which may be made if required.

The Directors would then expect for the funds to be raised through further equity fund raising which has been successfully achieved in prior years. As is common with early producing companies"

It would seem that CB has been perfectly honest, and accurate, with his previous assessment of the company forward-finances; even when not what the shareholders wanted to hear. So no reason to doubt CB's current assessment?

Agreed, Jamie,

It would seem to state that it is unlikely that there will be more dilution through issue of equity "The Directors would not expect for funds to be raised through further equity fund raising"

However in the same paragraph it says that it is likely that more funding will be needed - so CB must have alternative sources of funding lined up - not difficult to do if you are a company with significant income and proven assets...

I guess this means that we can now buy shares with reasonable confidence that the rug will not be pulled out from under the SP?

I would like to think that the annual report has been delayed so that it can contain a comprehensive update on all fronts, including several revenue streams that are now on line, but I have been known to be over-optimistic in the past, so it could simply be because the lock-downs in Africa have brought everything to a halt...

Let's hope that the delays are being caused by an overload of work on CB's part - and not variant D.

Hello EI,

My understanding is that mineralisation along extended strike and at depth is needed to exceed the 2MT AA buy-back requirement - however the more mineralisation that is found near-surface the better, as an economically viable open pit operation greatly increases the price that AA would have to pay ( much lower Capex and Copex).

So both mineralisation at depth and open pit potential is the fastest and best way for XTR to capitalise on the deal with AA.

As far as I can see from what has been published so far there is a very good chance of triggering the AA buy-back deal following the phase II drilling programme, and at an increasingly lucrative selling price - so definitely going in the right direction IMHO -but the only way to find out for sure is to wait until Q1 2022 - and I expect the SP to be very different by then...

True - can buy at 4.4849p - so a little less than ask...

Can buy 500,000 shares with no problem at all - so plenty of shares to go around, if you want to buy...

...Unless there has been an "unavoidable" delay in the production of the annual accounts ( covid seems to be the current excuse of choice), in which case the AGM may be put back into Q3?

The reality is that flippers have not had much choice other than to hang around, Iceberg.

They paid 5.6p for their shares and the SP has rarely been much above that price since the deal was brokered.

Even the most flighty of flippers would have wanted at least 6p - 6.5p to make the most meagre of margins.
That being the case there are probably around 80M placing shares still waiting to be flipped at a little more than 6p - so even 7p seems a long way off at current daily volumes.

Bottom line is that CB needs to demonstrate that he has been doing his job and that means announcing that we are cashflow positive as he as often promised that we would be!

Companies in general that have any respect at all for their shareholders and purport to be well positioned in a bull market should be ashamed of themselves if they issue cheap warrants.

That goes doubly for a company like XTR that claims to be in a pole position at the centre of an industrial revolution!

Few have been more positive than myself about XTR prospects, and I have not changed my point of view, but the time has now come to demonstrate the true quality of the company management team and to test their commitment to the restoration of shareholder value IMHO - and I will do all that is within my power at the AGM to realise that goal.

Current SP is not bonkers if you are flipping warrants at 1.2p a pop! Whilst cheap warrants are still available it is like having a placing at 1.2p, so no wonder the SP Is so low.

Once all the existing warrants have been exercised and flipped then we may see the SP increase - but only to the point where recent placing shares are in sufficient profit to merit being flipped (6p?), then there will.potentially be another 50M warrants being sold around 9p and so on... So we could be waiting a long time to get into double figures and those that bought at 8 or 9p may not see a decent profit any time soon, unless we stop this constant dilution and the upcoming issue of more cheap warrants.

We have the potential to be self- funding and we were promised that it would be in.place by now, so there is no excuse for what amounts to abuse of current medium and long term shareholders!

Whilst open pit mining is the most profitable method, block cave mining is not far behind for the deeper mineralisation, as described in very simple terms here:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.geoengineer.org/news/block-caving-a-new-mining-method-arises%23:~:text%3DBlock%2520caving%2520is%2520a%2520new,version%2520of%2520open%2520pit%2520mining.&ved=2ahUKEwjSh4ehzPPwAhX-CWMBHbsPD1EQFjABegQIBBAF&usg=AOvVaw1M_IZFhXP-Q4ImATdzbz1u

Of course the decision to mine does not necessarily mean that XTR will be the operator. The open pit mining could be operated by a third party at their expense, with XTR retaining a percentage of operating profits ( similar to Fair Bride) so the decision to mine need not cost anything and it would then be up to AA to decide whether to exercise their purchase option or to give up the opportunity to a third party contractor.

Either way, XTR shareholders would be in a very happy place...

As the AGM needs to be held by the end of June, I would expect to get an annual accounts and comprehensive corporate update RNS very soon now, together with a notification of the date for the AGM.
One of the motions at the AGM is likely to be authorisation to issue 50 million warrants at 8.5p for the participants of the recent fund raising.
If we expect income from Africa to fully fund BR exploration up until the point of sale then the £4M income from the sale of warrants will not be required and their issue would just result in unwarranted dilution to the rest of us.
However, if income from Africa is expected to be less than originally hoped for, or if even more delays are in store such that there is a danger of running out of cash before the LE in Australia, then I guess the issue of warrants would be a necessary evil - assuming, of course, Colin does not decide to issue another 100M shares at 4p, just to be on the safe side.
The next RNS should be interesting...