Member Info for carpymick

Peter. No offence taken mate, I don't have account ts experience and have never run my own business but eager to learn and understand. If I'm understanding this rightthen, we may take quite a hit on our cash when the valkyrie go out to customers?! We had £269m in deposits at the full year results and I would guess a sizable chunk of those were valkyrie. Is my understanding correct or am I being a bit slow on the uptake lol?

C26. In Q1 results under the section headed OUTLOOK UNCHANGED FOR 2021, it states the CAPEX is £250-£275m therefore I based my calculations on £262.5m.
It also states that interest payments are £245m.
https://amsc-prod-cd.azureedge.net/-/media/corporate/documents/results-centre/2021---results-centre/q1---2021/aston-martin-lagonda-q1-2021-results---presentation.pdf?rev=ff5132c7c1b9438ca2178aa4beae3257

Thanks Peter. So what C26 is saying is correct. As I said, I'm not an accountant but I do like to try and understand the figures. I've also noticed that I said the debt was "245m not 260"...I obviously meant to say it is "145m and not 160". Hopefully people understood what I was getting at if they've read the results.

C26. I know I'm splitting hairs but at the FY results, CAPEX was cut to between £250 and 275m so call it £262.5m. Also the interest is £245m not 260. So the annual outgoings are £27.5m less than you have shown.
Also there will be 175 valkyrie of which 150 are road cars and 25 are track only.
So there's approx another £19m profit (25 x 2.5 x 30%)
So in total that's £46.5m more profit than you showed in your calculations.
I did have it in my head that the price for valkyrie was £3.4m but it looks like I was wrong on that one because others seem to agree at 2.5.
I also thought that deposits were kept separate to working capital and therefore shouldn't be deducted from the profit the cars make, but I'm not an accountant so maybe I'm wròng.
A point I would like to make which I and others have made before, is that the revenue from these mid-range cars added to that from DBX and sports cars, showing profit over a number of consecutive quarters, will enable us to renegotiate the debt to a much better interest rate.

Economically should read 'ecologically'

Agreed Richard. Every time a new version of the DBX is unveiled it will guarantee more sales, but can you imagine the excitement that would be generated if Top Gear put the high performance DBX head to head against the Urus and it beat it!! It would be euphoric, not to mention the media attention...I think we'd definitely get the biggest lift from that version!! The hybrid will of course bring in extra orders too, from people who are economically aware. Also, a 7 seater was mentioned soon after the DBX was launched, so I'm sure this is still on the burner and will again bring in orders from larger families. So within a couple of years there will be lots of choice to suit people's needs and desires. By then our DBX sales will have increased significantly!

Thanks for the link Tiny. Pebble Beach is definitely a date to note in our our diaries :-))

I think you're right Jack. We may get a correction or two but nothing major like last year and we'll just bounce straight back. Economies are going to have a period of sustained growth following the last 15 months of recession. Inflation will have to be kept in check but it wont cause a major crash IMO.

The regulator. Global stock markets are dropping due to inflation fears in America. AML is just following the markets and the2res nothing whatsoever to worry about. Everything will bounce back again in the next few days IMO :-))

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxPhGnzb4rE

This looks like a new DBX advert that has popped up on my phone.

Absolutely Jack. All good managers have an edge to them, they have to. If they are too nice they don't make the tough decisions and that's when things are allowed to continue at second best and things dont get done. We don't want that!! Thankfully that isn't what we've got, there's no way TM could have got so much done in 9 months without being extremely tough. He came to us with a reputation and he's living up to it 100%.

As Vorloch says, Moers has to make tough decisions. One of those is recent redundancies, so not everyone is going to like him, but what is important is respect, which I am sure he'll earn in bucket loads if he hasn't done so already, as the staff start to see all the benefits from the changes he has implemented.

Doyezee. I was typing at the same time as you (I'm painfully slow lol). Anyway, I've said pretty similar to you, we're definitely singing from the same hymn sheet. :-))

I agree C26 that the debt is what is going to hold us back, but as we drive up sales and the ASP we will surely be able to renegotiate the debt for a substantially reduced interest rate. We also know that Stroll and Moers forecast conservative targets and Moers mentions aiming for 10 - 12000 sales in one of today's articles. If achieved, an extra 2000 sales will make a big difference in paying off that debt. I dont believe that Tobias Moers would take on this challenge at such a late time in his career if he wasn't confident he could achieve it. Why risk his exemplary reputation on what will probably be the concluding part of his career? You've said it yourself..."he's the best man for the job" and he absolutely exudes confidence. You just need to get on board and share some of his confidence.

Well Tiny, I finally found time to read all the Moers articles you posted earlier, 6 from you and 1 from me...he certainly has been a busy chap! He is definitely turning the ship around and you can feel his positivity jumping out at you! Just a few of the many things he said that stood out for me were as follows:-
Article 1 - "It's about the people at Aston Martin -to get their belief back"
Article 2 - "Ferrari makes a profit from 6k car sales"
Article3 - "Expect a faster version of the combustion DBX in with a good shout of proving itself the fastest SUV on th Nurburgring"
Moers mentioned in more than one article, that he was building strong teamwork which I believe is vitally important in any organisation. He talked over and over again about efficiencies via Horizon, which the company is probably only just starting to reap the benefits from. And he made a point of stating that Ferrari start making a profit at 6000 car sales and by making that point he obviously thinks that in time, we can do likewise. He definitely thinks our mid-engine cars can be competitive against Ferrari too!
Great articles from Moers and this is why we are invested in AML. If you still don't have faith, or the patience to wait for the plan to work, you need to think about moving your money elsewhere IMO.

And another great article from Moers.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/aston-martins-new-ceo-talks-electrification-hypercars-and-more/
Quote "We are in the middle of a facelift for vantage, DB11 and DBA we are an engineerinering excercise to bring these cars to life on a new level".
This is the future of Aston that us LTHs are talking about.

Jack, I think you write some fantastic posts putting forward all the positive points for AML going forward and doing well and as a LTH I'm totally on board with you.
C26. I think you put forward lots of factual based arguments why AML may not do well which give people lots to think about. However, I do think Jack is right in what he I saying in his last post...we expect more sales and for the debt to be renegotiated. Think about it... we are getting new cars, advertising through F1, new technology including pathway to EV and expansion of distribution network through Mercedes. And as sales improve and we become profitable, we will be able to refinance our debt for a much lower interest rate and start to pay it off. Try to fill that glass back up again C26 :-))

So, Mansion now makes a reappearance with this rubbish about DBX sales slowing down! Clearly it will be quite the opposite and sales will increase when more DBX are seen on the open road, the rich crowd see their mates have one and want one for themselves. Then there's all the advertising that we've only just startedcto get from F1... millions of people seeing the advert during F1 intervals and the DBX medic car running round the circuit. Then of course we've got the new hybrid in Q3 and another variant early next year so don't talk rubbish anout sales slowing down...they will acccelerate, and I'm not even going to say IMO because anyone in their right mind can see that!!

I cannot believe the amount of negativity there's been on this BB today. All that is happening is the traders who thought they could make a quick killing on the results are now taking their money back out. The results today were absolutely solid and according to expectations and if you are disappointed then IMO your expectations were unrealistic. If you are truly a LTH, I dont know how you can be disappointed because we got everything we could have wanted today. Wholesales comfortably exceeded 1st quarter sales for 2018, 19 and 20 and DBX is once and for all confirmed its success so any doubters saying Q4 figures were fudged now have their answer...bearing in mind that Q1 is normally the weakest quarter. I think if you have listend to those results and you feel so negative, then IMO you really are in the wrong share and should be putting your money elsewhere. This is and always has been a long burner...Stroll himself has made that clear. If you can afford to leave your money invested for the next 4 years and you have the patience, I believe youll be rewarded handsomely. But if you're wanting to make money fast, I'm sure there are much better shares to trade on. All IMO of course.

Yes she's rising now as people get on board at the last minute. Tomorrow looks likely to be a good solid set of results which will set the tone for even better to come. Subsequent results will go from strength to strength with the intro of the mid engine cars headed up by valkyrie and we will of course get new variants of DBX and sports cars. Stroll loves to surprise us too, so there may be other good news for us tomorrow, for example another car...exciting times ahead! All IMO of course. Good luck to all LTHs :-))