Member Info for CaptainSwag

"When the cold snap passes sad things will happen"

when the cold snap passes the west will put more squeeze on oil and gas. russia delib attacked whilst cold and west is more vulnerable. china wanted them to delay

walt mitty now saying covid was always a risk?..lol
i suppose gold commanders can't admit to being wrong....was all in the plans....long term invest ..blah blah
double down perrin

contract savy - lol

i suspect the pro tests will have already been dumped in spain. however i suspect the dam contract is game over - should they need any more tests in future they can still get via colin at alva but labelled OG

i think both putin and ukraine have to work out what the minimum they can give away is

i suspect it will be

recognise crimea
no nata
2 russian areas

if this is ultimately the end game - and i think it will be. there is no point continuing. more deaths and the destruction of ukraine because both sides are being stubborn. ukraine has done well so far. but i think they will start to lose international support if this goes on to long and starts affecting the whole world

"These sanctions are solely aimed at ab and others to freeze their assets not company’s"

oil sanctions? that is a whole industry

"I say war is over in several weeks at most. Sanctions much much longer."

i would agree on war being over very soon. i suspect the israeli peace talks could be pivotal especially if russia take Kiev.
the general sanctions against companies/industries will be lifted soon - it is not in the interest of the west to accelerate a global crash no matter how much the west wants to punish putin.

i think the oligarchs will continue to be hunted down though. the world has been their playground and all bets are off

"If there is a crash it'll be the continual impact of inflation and interest rates rising, not Russia. I'd wager crash will not be epic in any case.

the trouble with sanctions is that it will affect the west as well.
look at BP - they virtue signal about getting out of russia. now if they really mean it - they have lost billions. not just existing assets but future revenue.
their sp is going to crash big time in the future when the realisation happens.

any company that pulls back on russia will face the same. the stock market will crash once companies update their accounts

red - i agree. though i think we are going for an inevitable global crash anyway.

we were on the cusp with covid. the war the black swan event that was all that was needed. the longer the war goes on the more pain there will be.

dollar shortage ? surely biden will just print some more

walter mitty - blah blah

Still all going to plan with your "long term" investment?

large spread is to put off buying - as you will be immediately down a considerable percentage.
opening up prices look to me as if we will have a blue day...shake been done and now a gap up to be filled

poly was on a roll yesterday prior to evraz suspension. evra suspension was always on cards due to RA. Poly so far looks like escaping due to ownership and production outside russia.
was always the safest bet of the ruskie trio

GLA

just mentioned resignations on sky news....

"Not sure he cares about China also. "

agreed. but it is the old "enemy of enemy is my friend". or the alliance between stalin and hitler.
neither the russians or the chinese trust each other or would hesitate to stitch one another up come the right time - but they will be driven into each others arms further. china wants the nukes and russia wants the cash

"But I sense a whiff of Ruskiphobia too"

you could well be right on that. lets face it russia has imploded itself with the help of the west and apart from nuclear capability has weakened itself considerably in this conflict.
if we avoid nuclear war then this will have been a victory for the west without them firing a shot

" He wants to denazify Ukraine. "

I am not convinced on that. i feel his "nazi" rhetoric is an attempt to get the woke west on side - he probably sees the reaction on twitter and thinks that by being seen "fighting nazis" that he will get us on side.
he did not count on that the west are not really interested in real nazis but only on "twitters version of nazis"

there has been no genocide of russians in ukraine from my conversations with anyone who has contact with ukraine. yes there are "nazi" groups - but in reality this war will bring about a lot more - and they will make the irish seem like boy scouts. this could haunt him for years to come

i agree on your observation of the russians...and they are a people used to suffering - so the sanctions may take longer than we in the west would put up with

i think the gig is up with putin - if russia does want to integrate itself back globally after this has ended

moex won't open until the war is over in my opinion. it would be carnage and bring putin down faster than anything else

at that point war is over it will be a very different story. yes some companies will still want to exit but they will want to do it in an orderly fashion and get the most they can back. others will have done their virtual signalling and will realise that people will no longer care if they stay or go...do you think macdonalds will hesitate to reopen?

besides chinese companies will be waiting to step in and buy at bargain basement prices for any shares that get dumped.
some companies and people do vey well in war

i suspect the LSE took the gov report at face value that evra have been supplying steel for russian tanks and felt they had to act by suspending evra. in today's woke world they would have been crucified if they hadn't.

the gov have not sanctioned evra - probably no actual proof of this claim - and so the decision lies with LSE. if it is not true then evra should be threatening legal action and get the suspension lifted asap. if ra is sanctioned presumably he cannot sell his shares anyway so he is locked in anyway. punishing a uk based company and 1000s of uk investors is not fair and they run the risk of legal action by shareholders

if lse have no reason to lift the suspension - ie no legal threat - then i think they will just leave it and we could be locked in for the duration of the war.

if the company keep plugging away and the conflict is over soon - all should be good. though evraz may struggle to remove the stink that has been blamed on them. it may never be quite the company it was but should still see a considerable re-rate.

if suspension is lifted tomorrow then that would be a very positive step on the road to recovery - but my gut instinct is telling me it wont

prion - my view is that putin saw a weakness in usa (afghanistan) and the west generally (covid) - he wants ukraine back to russia and thought now was the ideal opportunity.
he expected to be greeted with open arms or minimal resistance and never expected the extent of the resistance or economic sanctions. unfortunately his stubborness has taken the double down path.

he is not going to get ukraine back in the fold - the extent of the resistance should have told him that by now. he clearly feels giving up would weaken russia on the world stage but runs the risk of weakening russia permanently by destroying her economically. he will end up selling her to a foreign power much worse than the west...china.

whether we can avoid the mother of all recessions is a good question. after covid it is not looking good.

the russians have gold but as has been said a lot of the russian wealth is held overseas - so they will not be able to access it. no way of propping up the rouble. interest rates at 20%.

it surely must be only matter of time before he sees sense or goes all in

he looks like he might gamble with chemical weapons but that will potentially bring the west into the fight.

lse said they suspended evraz to protect investors - i think it is unlikely they are going to cancel knowing that it would destroy investors holdings.
i can't see the moscow exchange opening whilst it is still at war - it will crash and then how will putin explain it away?

either we will get a quick lift on the suspension - threat of legal action- as RA has been sanctioned by the gov and not EVRAZ...or it will remain suspended for the duration of the war.

putin is stubborn ..ukraines are stubborn....but eventually the global community will weigh up a global recession against a few cities we can't pronounce.

i invested in evra / pog / poly with the knowledge that there was a very good chance of the share getting suspended. personally I want to be in this if/when the war ends as it should hopefully re-rate to part of its original value.

now it is just a question of waiting and hoping for the people of ukraine that the war ends soon before too many more lives are lost.

I am hoping putin can't afford for the war to drag on - rouble worthless / no moscow stock market / rinsing prices and interest rates/ sanctions biting hard etc.
the longer he goes on the more the destruction of ukraine - and the less popular russia will become on the world stage.

it will be hard for china to support him without getting tainted ...his generals will start to fear being charged with war crimes..so unless he has some quick fix up his sleeve he is going to have to try and save face. his best bet is to take the 2 areas he was supposed to be protecting - though now they may be anti russian? and recognition of crimea and no nato guarantee.
end this madness before the world goes into a global recession

hopefully all gets resolved soon. GLA