Member Info for Boyobach

char - I did say that, for me, it's a flip of the coin. I'm sure others may also have said the same.

Interesting times indeed Barrie and Tom -
Just two years ago today the sp closed at 2265 but the dividend was twice the current level (from Q3), there was an OP war in progress and covid was yet to make an impact. So Shell is on firmer ground but will the divi be enough ? There's clearly lots of expectation and therefore room for disappointment too. Meanwhile Brent is indeed challenging the $86 barrier and Shell's sp has arrived at the first of two gaps which might speed its climb to the lowest rung of 2019 levels - there's little doubt they'll get filled but how soon will that be? https://invst.ly/x4zc1

Cheers Nomad - got it!

This chart shows CWR against the NASDAQ CELS index from early 2020:
https://invst.ly/x4m2q
The NASDQ CELS index is designed to track the performance of companies that are primarily manufacturers, developers, distributors and/or installers of clean energy technologies. I’ve chosen the re-base point so that the chart doesn’t ‘normalise’ the bubble that formed with CWR’s sp when it rose to over 1600 a year ago and it also matches the index with CWR’s lows during 2020 - before the market swept it up dramatically. In this undemanding model, CWR’s sp could be expected to be above 820 at present.

The chart also indicates that growth in the ‘green’ sector stalled in April last year and, apart from a boost during November (presumably due to COP 26), the sector has been broadly flat for nearly a year. The red line is a continuation of the least optimistic trend that CWR’s sp followed through 2020, which would have placed it at just 930 today. Bearing in mind that CWR is also subject to poor sentiment affecting the Tech sector as a whole, Friday’s low sp does appear to be broadly based rather than company specific. A reversal at 770 would fit CWR’s recent trend, as would an overshoot to 720, unfortunately : https://invst.ly/x4mov

Ah - you're dealing in $ on the NY Exchange, Nomad? - OK. My comments about the ratio of sp to Brent being around 21.3 x etc etc obviously relate to the UK LSE price in pence. My numbers may not work very consistently with a further conversion back to $ - although the general principle should be equally valid ATB.

Nomad: we've seen a near 20% increase in Brent since 20th December, Shell has nearly matched it but not quite.
The market is going to keep an eye on the dividend yield isn't it? So that’s a potential limiting factor IMV.
Brent has hit $86 overnight - things will get interesting if it continues from here

Yes Chilting - both Ocado and Ceres have had a similarly bad day today, with very similar key levels breached on their respective charts. Being unable to sit by a screen this morning, I decided to add some CWR at 800 without waiting to see any sign of reversal (that's always a pure gamble).
On my return I found there had frankly been no sign of the anticipated support or reversal and we the knife continues to fall for now, and increasingly dangerous to grasp. There are a few potential landing zones . It's often the case that the faster they rise then the faster they fall. https://invst.ly/x4b6s . GLA

Good points by chilting and diamondlegs.
Having dropped below the 1550 support level it must be conceded that there's little historic evidence of further support until potentially around 1330 (previous resistance and untested as support) and more significantly tested support near 1066 (quite appropriate for a battle) https://invst.ly/x4av9 . It's not looking great for now but maybe that red dashed trend will hold? I'm not counting on it.

Hi Jim and all on this thread.
When I started it, I was simply posing the question I ask myself.
TBH Jim, if the other variables with CVX are significant now then they obviously weren’t up until March 2020. Pokerchips pointed out a long way back that the US companies are under less political pressure in respect of climate issues. I recall (but have not researched to confirm) that they may now be better placed in terms of long term O&G reserves. The dividend cut was the main significant factor IMV. So I broadly think that Shell may not catch up with CVX for a considerable time because of these factors. Which leads me to regard the CVX sp as representing something of a ceiling target for Shell for the foreseeable future.

Looking at the last five trading days, Shell has tracked Brent very tightly - so there’s been no company specific news or activity driving the price. BP has been strengthening in price - so the market has viewed BP more favourably this week, as mehmeh pointed out. Chevron has eased off during the week, which is presumably a US market influence. I think Chevron represents a gold standard in Oil Major sp performance - so not a bad reference to check how Shell is doing week by week.
https://invst.ly/x4alx

Hi Rangor: I added today at 800. It's a punt as far as I'm concerned; my current average is just over £9 this time around ( I've made good profits here previously though) and, thanks to gains elsewhere, I'm prepared to stick with CWR for now. As Chilting says, cash is leaving Techs. It seems to be heading into Fossils, banks and others at the moment. With inflation, reliable divi paying stocks are attractive , of course. It could head lower, of course - I didn't wait for the reversal - so the slide could continue to the next support around 740: https://invst.ly/x4697
I gave up on TGP. Cheers.

There isn't a gap to 1620, btw.

Shell continues to be on a good run but how well is it really doing?

For much of the past decade, up until March 2020, Shell’s sp kept pace with Chevron. This changed dramatically when Shell cut its dividend. Here is a chart rebased to August 2011; the date has been chosen purely because it provides a convenient start point for a direct comparison. It shows how Chevron’s sp has now recovered to a level surpassing its average level of the past decade and that Shell would be 2580 today if it had performed as well as its US cousin. Can we realistically expect Shell to reach this level again?

https://invst.ly/x44i0

OliverTheHardy asked: ‘Does anyone have an idea what the share price will be on Annual Results day at the beginning of Feb?’
Well....
1 ‘Is the market getting ahead of itself again?’
I think it probably is (no doubt encouraged by Shell’s ‘at pace’ comments). It’s a bullish environment for Oil at the moment - so I’m not currently betting on Brent or Shell falling back significantly whilst the signs are positive. The sp could easily remain strong as the results approach, IMO, but what happens immediately before or after they are published is another matter.
2. ‘Do we know what the price of Brent will be tomorrow, let alone in three weeks time?’ OP seems to be in control of the sp at present, and January is often a weak part of the seasonal cycle. But who knows?
3 Where did you get that P/E ratio? Most places give it as around 40 (which I’m not saying is correct).

Investing in a mature organisation which is producing for an established market is totally different to investing in a new technology which aims to be transformational. The latter is obviously highly speculative so P/E is not a useful or relevant indicator. Looking at genuine development and prospect improvement as the cash is burning is rather more important - but a lot harder. Meanwhile, it has to be said that the gravitational pull of 800 seems to be in control: https://invst.ly/x3vfe
We are in fourteen month low territory now - excluding an intraday spike back in July: https://invst.ly/x3vd2 and many potential buyers (like me) will be holding off to see what happens as that support level is approached.

Gaps may seem to be a bit of chart mumbo jumbo but they do have a good track record of getting filled, so I don’t ignore them.
There are now four gaps in Shell’s chart that are of interest - two above today’s sp and two below, as circled: https://invst.ly/x3r3u Convention has it that gaps always get filled but there are some caveats - or excuses - for when that doesn’t happen. Basically, if a share is rocketing or plummeting then ‘continuation gaps’ can occur due to the sheer speed of movement - they may not get filled if the price gain or loss is large and is maintained indefinitely. My own feeling is that gaps ordinarily do get filled if/when the price moves back within trading range of them, say 10% or 15% . The lowest of Shell’s two gaps is down to 1630 - and, for me, it will be in play whenever the sp is below 1800. The other is from 1771 down to 1760. Above, we have a gap from 1846 to 1872 and another from 2085 to 2124, which are becoming targets as the price moves up towards them.

Unfortunately, although 838 has held up to now, the price continues to be squeezed this morning: https://invst.ly/x3pp2

Yes, it's a fair point Nomad. The problem with comparing the two is where do you start?
It's a lucky person that can hop from one to t'other and take advantage. This chart compares them from the end of 2019:
https://invst.ly/x3kw4 . BP (yellow) was certainly ahead during the first three quarters of 2020 but it's been a tighter race since. I can see why some like to hold both!

Well the breakout that started at the end of December continues at pace, to use Shell's new word of the month. It seems to be fueled more by OP rather than anything Shell specific and the ratio for sp (p): Brent ($/bbl) at the close was 21.3 , which is very consistent with recent days. The tracking is very tight as can be seen in this 15’ view from 9.15 on Jan 4th: https://invst.ly/x3kee .
As anon1 points out - predictions about sp are next to useless. The trick is to spot changes of direction which, as most investors know, is still very challenging. The task is even harder with a volatile commodity like Brent dominating the movements, as it is currently. Suffice it to say that Brent has only wobbled a couple of times since Dec 21st on its climb upwards:
https://invst.ly/x3khc
We all know that $86 is a rather critical level for Brent - it hasn’t gone onwards through it to $88 since 2010, when it continued to $100+ and stayed above it for over three years. It looks like it might be about to have another go at $86, although this time it has the additional challenge of the orange ‘ceiling’ here:
https://invst.ly/x3kmw
Interesting times! GLA.

It was hardly a noteworthy breakout but CWR did make a tentative start today by walking sideways out from underneath the latest (January) trend : https://invst.ly/x33kv .

Buybacks aren't necessarily a bad thing - if the shares are undervalued - but don't kid yourselves that when they are linked to a significant asset sale they are not part of a reduction in company size, even if it is small in the big scheme of things: Permian is gone and there'll be fewer shares in issue as a consequence, therefore the company is smaller. Whether the market cap correctly adjusts to account for the $7Billion of assets coming off the books is up to the market. As there'll be fewer shares then the sp would need to increase proportionately to maintain the market cap at pre-buyback levels.
If the distribution had been in the form of a special dividend then the sp would have fallen on ex-div day. However, with buybacks the effect will be spread and less obvious whilst other factors (like rising OP) may mask it further.
I get it - some here obviously don't. And I'm done with explaining the obvious.