Member Info for Boyobach

We should note the background to the dramatic fall, as outlined in the Independent quoted below. and also spare a thought for poor Bezos, Musk etc etc.:
"It was the worst week for the stock market since the crash at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. At Friday’s close, the tech-focused Nasdaq was down 7.6 per cent for the week, its biggest decline since March 2020. This is also the fourth successive weekly drop for the index, the longest decline in nine months. "
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/elon-musk-crypto-stocks-jeff-bezos-b1998797.html

A 15' view of CWR shows this month's price squeeze leading up to Friday's close. My tip would be to watch the lows (red trend) because they track any upward pressure (there isn't any yet) whilst the highs (blue trend) track downward pressure (plenty of that). Where they meet only one can continue unbroken: https://invst.ly/x6ubj .
Also, beware of the 'averaging down' trap. The truth is simply that once a share is bought at a given price you can NEVER make a profit on it until the price goes above that level. You might offset the loss by making a profit on tranches subsequently bought at lower levels but each time you average down you should treat the new tranche as a separate investment in its own right. Averaging down can be a good method of optimising the price whilst initially acquiring shares but it can be a dangerous tool when an sp takes a dive and the bottom has not been established. My advice would be to not to think of the 'average price' that will result from adding but whether you seriously think the new tranche alone is really going to deliver the best prospects for a profit.

Yes Fira - £16 last January was rather absurd. But the 'overvalue' point is somewhat hard to determine. On the way up it was widely regarded as a nominal £10 share and the cash raise rather underpinned that perception - would the big subscribers to that have done so at a hyped-up price? I don't think so. They'll have done some serious sums to justify their investment. Since 5th Jan, CELS index has taken a 14% hit and it's hard to see the justification for CWR falling more than double that - especially as performance has been in line with guidance and therefore totally in line with normal expectations. ITM, also shown here and arguably a riskier case, has fallen by around 20% in the same period. https://invst.ly/x6kap

Hi Hasiba - yes, quite correct. CWR's fall has much to do with Tech stocks in general as Chilting has pointed out consistently. It just so happens that CWR has reacted rather more than many, perhaps due to shorting by Marshall Wace. Today may well have offered the best buying opportunity - so good luck to you! If cwr closes around £7 again on Tuesday the bottom may just have been reached https://invst.ly/x6k72 ATB.

Hi Getafgrip.... ' it does look like a natural pull-back, but maybe the shares had a touch of altitude sickness'
Yes! A touch of the usual trading cycle sickness? Ha!-we've seen it all before haven't we but it still seems to take people by surprise. Shares go up and down - that's never a surprise - it's whether their peaks and lows are going up or down that is important. Smart folks will have sensed a reversal on Wednesday and set a stop loss to offload a few or even taken a punt on selling a few on the day.
I'm about 50% of where I was (was overweight - now underweight) and will probably 'stick' if it reverses too sharply or pile back in if the opportunity arises. A £1 downward swing in RDS represents only 5.5% off £18 - not a killer for the LTH but a tidy potential cash gain over a couple of weeks. https://invst.ly/x6jxz
Thanks to trading, my average book cost for each remaining Shell share is down to a stupidly low level so, although I could exit completely and take the remaining cash now, the divi and prospective gains in 2022 do look very promising - especially as inflation is set to take a heavy toll on cash.
ATB

It’s always tempting to call or assume the bottom a bit prematurely when there’s an ‘up’ day, like Thursday was for CWR. However, breaking out of the latest falling trend, red in this case: https://invst.ly/x6jr1 , should give a more definite indication, although nothing is ever certain.
The brutal truth is that CWR has now moved into a long term falling rather than a long term rising trend, as marked out by blue here: https://invst.ly/x6jqs . The green, which previously dominated, died when the sp broke down through 895 on Jan 6th.

Trends come and go - they reflect what has happened, not necessarily what will be. It’s when they get broken that they deliver their most useful message. When the upper red trend line gets broken we can start to hope that CWR is starting to reverse from this month’s decline. And only when the upper blue trend is broken can we start to think of a resumption of decent upside prospects. In the meantime it’s heading down, with 634 looking like a potential baseline - heads it reverses before that and tails it plunges on through.

I think getafgrip was joking, Briton.
Meanwhile, it's interesting to see two opposing forces at work: a natural pull-back in sp being offset by a hardening OP - the former currently taking more control: https://invst.ly/x63s4

I don't follow BP closely but, for Shell, I think £19 may be for next time.
Today's signs of trend reversal (15' chart):
https://invst.ly/x5x-j

Yes indeed NQM.
Brent v Shell today: https://invst.ly/x5qg4
Shell dropping back this afternoon despite Brent putting on nearly $2 since yesterday’s close.
BP also easing off.

That 'possible' lower limit is around 634 - here's a better view of it: https://invst.ly/x5q6a

The knife is still falling - no hint of a reversal, not even a levelling out. Volumes appear to be a little lower than yesterday but still well above the recent average.
The day started off with a gap down from the previous close but, although this was quickly filled, the rest of the day saw downward pressure (the highs progressively getting lower) until the pace accelerated in the last hour of trading, ultimately breaking below 680. In terms of trends, it's to be hoped the lower blue here will mark the limit but there are obviously no guarantees: https://invst.ly/x5pyq .

Yes - apologies. It seems the article I referred to was an old one from Morning Star that mentioned a possible move to the main market in mid 2022 and an unrelated cash raise . Clearly the comments I made about the cash raise should be disregarded.
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1616006456651422000/trading-updates-ceres-power-eyes-move-to-main-market-by-mid-2022.aspx

Many thanks if correct E_AL - I was repeating a comment posted here in the last few days. I need to check the source.

An overshoot to the lower trend line here was on the cards
https://invst.ly/x5blx as I mentioned a few days ago. It seems PI’s have indeed been bailing out - as some have said here today. A pretty grim day indeed.
To the extent that 930 represented CWR’s baseline until a week ago, it seems that it has suffered a much sharper fall than ITM or the wider CELS index: https://invst.ly/x5bxc
It’s not clear why CWR would be disproportionately affected, although there have been comments here about shorting activity, with Marshall Wace’s interest, particularly from early October, running through COP and progressively increasing, illustrated here: https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BG5KQW09/
It’s never smart to bet against Hedge Funds - let them play and, if you are still interested, pick up the shares when they’ve ground the price right down. Perhaps they are interested in participating in the cash raise that has been mentioned here?
A cash raise is usually at a discount and will presumably require more shares to be issued the lower the price - so dilution might become more of an issue for existing holders? Meanwhile, the main market listing would presumably mean that more funds will include CWR in their portfolio and that would tend to drive the price back up. If you were shorting CWR then it seems there would be a natural window of opportunity.
It’s perhaps also worth noting that very recently arrived posters who introduce themselves by discussing a Hydrogen Bubble and the inappropriateness of CWR products for private vehicles (they never were targeted at such were they?) possibly have an interest in influencing sentiment. They'd quite possibly like you to pack up and go home.

Thedon1903: I did say 'be prepared for', in other word's, 'don't be surprised' - sp's do not ordinarily continue in straight lines. Shell has had a very good run since late December and so has Brent. The market has some history in getting a little ahead of itself - will Shell fully deliver on those expectations in February? Those who have been buying at recent prices are either betting that it will or they are riding the upward trend with the intention of making an exit prior to publication, and taking a quick profit. It's an increasingly fragile situation largely underpinned by OP - not the most predictable of commodities. It's all fine - but don't be surprised if the path to £20+ isn't a straight line. That would need Brent to be around $95 on current performance. OlivertheHardy points out a potential shortfall in OPEC+ supplies from Russia but I'm sure others in the group will be keen to 'help out' at the current price. In fact Brent has been easing back from $88 during today. I think the chance of a continuous and uninterrupted rise in Shell to Q4 and beyond is a coin flip at best - so it seems worth being prepared for whichever side it lands.

Correct Pasty - a divi increase seems more likely than a significant drop in OP. Some pull-back in the sp should probably be prepared for - it has strengthened against Brent since October but the background is rather different now.

It may be tempting to think that Q4 sp moves will be a rerun of what happened at the Q3. This chart provides an indication of what that might look like but Brent has a part to play - and there’s no guarantee that history is about to repeat itself in the global oil market with a drop to $69 as happened in December! Indeed, that seems very unlikely this time around: https://invst.ly/x59wn

You are right, it seems, MrG. Certainly 'green tech' shares like CWR are having a pasting.

Well, with the gap to 1871 filled, that just leaves the one from 2085 to 2124 remaining on the ‘recovery path’. Trendwise, there’s a potential barrier in the form of the red line here: https://invst.ly/x590p which is currently at about 1950.
As others have said, this is very ‘déjà vu’ Q3 and there’s still just over two weeks to the Q4. Will the market blink? RDS appears to be near a natural peak but Brent’s continued rise seems to be driving it further for the moment.

I thought volumes had been picking up this month? https://invst.ly/x56xg

Well it seems you do ignore a break below the old ‘cup and handle’ pattern at your peril. CWR unfortunately providing a text-book example since it fell below 930 . It’s still hard to see where the sp will land as it heads towards half price territory. https://invst.ly/x56p8
I guess PI’s are bailing out and stop-losses have been triggered.