Member Info for Boyobach

It’s interesting to note the differing response to OP movements by Chevron compared to RDS over recent days. https://invst.ly/w-iw3
RDS has been the more volatile of the two majors over recent months and, having surged ahead after news of the Permian deal, is now limited by a falling trend (red) which pushed it down yesterday (circled), For Chevron there was no such barrier and it has continued its steady rise, regaining the lead. The logical conclusion is that IF OP continues to remain firm then RDS will eventually breakout from under the red, chasing the Chevron line shown here. This would put RDS back at about 1700 at the current Brent price level.

Interesting to see RDS’ reaction to Brent movements today. Here’s a 15’ view that shows today’s moves and the reaction to Brent’s rise whilst the market was closed for Xmas: https://invst.ly/w-b-w . It nicely demonstrates that RDS has effectively softened by 70p in relation to Brent since last week. As I hinted earlier by reference to BP, the market didn’t seem likely to pursue a breakout - quite the reverse as it turned out when all three dropped back sharply around 4pm. Will the market have second thoughts tomorrow? Not judging by the way today ended....

Some understandable profit taking this morning but is RDS poised to break out from its two and a half month limiting trend (red)?
https://invst.ly/w-7k5
BP is lagging in that respect, which may indicate that the time hasn’t come:
https://invst.ly/w-7li
Much probably depends on Brent (note the similar breakout potential between the three): https://invst.ly/w-7ow .

The $7bn Permian 'distribution' ($ not £ btw) has so far been announced in the form of share buybacks rather than dividend. I suggest you keep an eye on RNS's and the company's website, which currently includes this information :
Royal Dutch Shell plc (the ‘company’) announced the commencement of up to $1.5 billion of share buybacks on December 2, 2021. This is the first tranche of the $7 billion shareholder distributions from the sale of the company’s Permian business in the United States. The form and timing for distributing the remaining $5.5 billion (together with any unpurchased amount of the $1.5 billion of shares under this tranche) will be announced in early 2022.
https://www.shell.com/investors/information-for-shareholders/share-buybacks.html

Yes, NSS, after a break for Xmas Eve and Xmas Day, Brent has been trading since late Boxing Day and has put on nearly $3 since I posted my notes about Brent at mid-day: https://invst.ly/wzq87

The four months of November through February tend to be the seasonally weak months for OP. In early 2020 that was compounded and extended by record high inventories, a price war between OPEC+ and US Shale and the ‘last straw’ presented by Covid-19. The pattern also seems to be present for the current 2021-2022 season. The implication being that Brent may have already hit its low for the next nine months and, unless the current wave of Covid delivers an economically more disruptive outcome, Brent in 2022 could continue to average over $70 and ‘bulls’ will have a reasonable basis for anticipating even higher prices as the year progresses.
This chart covers the last eight years, the latest two of which have been disrupted by both covid and the third (or was it fourth?) US Shale ‘bust’:
https://invst.ly/wznd8 The significance of $86 is rather apparent.
As Shale producers are now largely free of the need to pump in order to service spiraling debts, the supply side of the market is surely more in control than it has been since 2014. With the lack of investment in E&P since then, continuing global demand, the ecologically counter-productive influence that ‘cheap oil’ would have and as life with covid normalises, there seems only one logical long-term direction for Brent. All of which points to the significance of $86: is it a ceiling or a likely breakout level?
As discussed many times, RDS follows Brent except when it doesn’t - and it’s the times that it doesn’t that determine the underlying sp: https://invst.ly/wznjo
(RDSb v Brent over a similar timespan). 2018 saw RDS’ all-time peak sp with Brent near $80, it has a long way to go in order to match that performance again.

Is there ever good news from Prelude?
Maybe it's in the nature of the Beast that good news= normal operations= boring news...

Ah! - the balance between ‘nanny state’ and ‘personal freedom’ can keep two old dogs gnawing at the same bone indefinitely. I think we’ve past the point where prolonging this debate was useful, although we do seem to agree that mandating vaccines would be a mistake. So it’s purely about how greater take-up should be encouraged? I think that needing medical care due to covid is an adequate consequence in itself and that applying a charge at that point would be inconsistent with the role of the NHS and too late to influence the earlier choices made by affected individuals. I also think that, by that late stage, the reality of Natural Selection might not be perceived by them as a joke. The US approach, in some places, is to pay people to take the jab: I don’t approve of that but would have to concede that it’s more likely to be effective as an incentive than NHS charges.

Ha! Cheers Kenj.
I was joking about the cardboard but I'll give Adblock Plus a try.
I use this site on laptops and PC's (very rarely on phone) and it's noticeable how much resource it consumes on a device, as well as the irritatingly intrusive ad-content. This has recently got much worse with the video running bottom left. I now visit LSE less frequently and close the window when not actively viewing it.

I think we are chasing semantics BE, as well as shifting the subject to other behaviours - it's a slippery slope !!!
When something is ‘recommended’ (rather than mandated) then there can be no penalty for declining to do it. If the NHS were to charge some patients because they declined vaccination then this would effectively be a penalty. Being vaccinated to comply with terms and conditions of employment or to travel etc. etc. are entirely different matters, of course.
As for ill equipped numpties climbing hills etc… do we really want strict H&S legislation governing where we can go and how we dress? Accidents can happen even to the most experienced and well prepared. I think it would be a disproportionate curb on our freedoms. We need the emergency services for genuine accidents - so the cost is embedded. As someone else here said, Darwinian selection has stupidity covered.

Looks like RDS might have some difficulty breaking above the red trend line this time around: https://invst.ly/wz44d
Closing above 1660 would be encouraging.

People who jump off buildings with a parachute pay a higher insurance premium than the average person...
Surely that only applies to optional private health insurance. How does that increase their personal contribution to the NHS?
I'm not aware that the NHS gets additional funding directly from individuals who engage in hazardous activities.
Regarding 'accepted norms of behaviour': We are free to act (or not act) as we choose provided we do so within the law - which is where our democratically elected law makers have responsibility. Vaccines are recommended in the UK rather than mandated, a change in that policy would be significant and require legislation. Introducing charges at the point of health treatment would be rather 'wild west'.

As Brits do we not support ‘freedom of choice’ ? This includes the right of people to be idiots if they so choose. Like many things of value, it comes at a high price. After all, people can choose to smoke, drink, eat junk food ….
https://youtu.be/BwaQRTo1Efo

Char does at least talk about RDS... I seem to recall that MsSutton never does, apparently preferring to troll people on this board. Speaking of annoying stuff on LSE - even more pop-ups nowadays so less than a third of my screen is now stuff I'm interested in. At least I've got a good and free pop-up blocker - a used piece of cardboard with a frame cut in it.

OP (Brent & WTI) have moved higher on the back of a large drawdown of U.S. crude stockpiles… The previous long term OP trend (blue dots) was killed off at the end of November but the needle has only moved a small amount it seems, with the ‘new’ trend (solid blue) potentially just a few degrees less steep:
https://invst.ly/wyw8n
It seems a bit early to say either that Oil has levelled out or that it is about to make a further attack on $86 but, on the other hand, it does not seem to be retreating, continues to remain firm and is in a generally upward path from a long-term perspective.

This is how BP and RDSb compared with each other over the last 12 months (chart rebased from 22/12/19): https://invst.ly/wylc0
Flipping from BP to RDS at the end of May would have been a good move but, apart from BP’s lead during April-June, they’ve been in close harmony for much of the rest of the time.

I occasionally wonder whether GNL is worth revisiting - trying to view it from an entirely new perspective, rather than with the historical baggage. It’s not easy to do. I also try to put KRG issues aside and look at what the company is achieving in its own right.
The last payment RNS looks a bit disappointing - Sarta was pumping more back in March (earning $3.4m when Brent was averaging about $9 below September’s level, so it was presumably producing about 2/3rds as much? ). Assuming that's a wrap for 2021 payments, I reckon they totalled a little over $280m. 2022 should be better, given the first two months of this year’s payments were just $13.9m and $23.9m respectively. I reckon 2022’s total could reach $350m (allowing for the last override payment due to be received in October and assuming no improvement at Sarta, nothing from QD and Tawke still performing). But, with overrides finished, will 2022 then mark a peak from the revenue POV?
Here is G over the last 5 years compared to RDS, Brent and Chevron:
https://invst.ly/wyfus . It has offered very good trading opportunities over those years but, of course, LT holders probably didn’t maximise those opportunities because they expected Miran and BB to eventually deliver. The upside does not look so enticing to me now though. From a chart perspective, 110 looks like a fairly solid base provided OP stays above $65, whilst the sp now needs to break the orange trend here to get to 160 again:
https://invst.ly/wygzi
Beyond that, the red dashed line represents a limit on the price going back 3.5 years to the heady days of 295p. It crosses 160 around the beginning of March, as the FY results etc. approach. So the upside looks increasingly limited to me unless Sarta and QD start to make an impact.

Not exactly a Head Fake but, nonetheless, RDS moved back up rather swiftly after opening at 1544 - I had to move smartly to buy back my 1680+ sale at a good price. The bounce was quite possibly due to re-investment of today's dividend payment by some investors- for once it may not have been a bad day to do it, although it may well slip back again over coming days, especially if Brent continues to slide. I'm now 'equal weight' - so not in a hurry to add more unless there's a very convincing trading opportunity. https://invst.ly/wxtid .
There seems to be good support around 1545, although today's bounce may have exaggerated the strength of it.

Looking at tonight's Brent price of $72, I'm anticipating around 1550 tomorrow for RDSb, which would be fine from my buy-back perspective. https://invst.ly/wxinc (chart is up to Friday's 16.30 close, so weekend fall in Brent is not shown)

Well, yesterday’s RDSb rise (along with the rest of the market and Brent) did buck the trend that I originally posted on Wednesday (dotted line here), causing me to think my buy-back opportunity in the 1500’s was gone. However, the downward trend has resumed today with a couple more points ‘refining’ my earlier view of it : https://invst.ly/wx4gb (Brent - rebased - in Green)

I hope Getafgrip is right about 1600 being near the floor - I certainly agreed with many of his comments earlier in this thread and there does seem to be support in this region. Maybe self-interest is causing me to think that the price has further to fall - we often see what we want to see - but I do think RDS could drop further before ultimately revisiting 1800 on the way further up.