Member Info for Boyobach

Let's be blunt about this: the current fall in sp, ie the trend from end December , won't be over until the sp rises above the red line here: https://invst.ly/x2yy9 , which means getting to and staying above 875.
And the falling trend since the end of October won't be over till it crosses the orange line here: https://invst.ly/x2y-i , which means getting to and staying above 930.
And the falling trend since January last year won't be over till it crosses the blue.
It's about £3.50 short of that last target currently so let's not worry about that just yet.
Until it crosses all three it's technically going down.

The buybacks mean we own a larger share of the same size company......
Sorry but that's very obviously nonsense.
When Shell buys $10m of shares and then cancels them the company is obviously $10m smaller in value.
Shell does not now have the Permian asset and, after buybacks, it won't have the cash either: therefore it is smaller!
This does reduce the number of shares for dividend distribution but it proportionately reduces the net assets that generate the profits from which those dividends are paid.
As Getafgrip rightly says, once cash leaves the company it is gone.
A dividend shares it out between all investors whilst a buyback (where the shares are cancelled rather than held in treasury) simply shrinks the company and the number of shares in issue. It's not rocket science.
Taken to the extreme, Shell could theoretically sell the entire company and buyback every single share with the net proceeds.

'Buy-backs are an excellent way of keeping that capital invested in Shell plc. .....'
Unfortunately I don't think that is the case.
If the acquired shares are cancelled - as I believe is the intention - then, no, the capital simply goes into the pockets of those that sold them and the company gets proportionately smaller. Remaining shareholders then simply own a larger percentage of a smaller company. In theory, if the sp truly reflected the net realisable value of the company per share, buybacks would have nil value to the remaining investors. A buyback 'distribution' has no material value to shareholders unless the buybacks are made when the shares are undervalued and the process results in an enhanced sp.

Interesting background and points Chilting, thanks. I particularly noted your comment about having more confidence in Ocado - which makes sense given the broader technology and range of potential applications.
It prompted me to do a more direct comparison between Ocado and CWR sp's over the last 12 months and I was even more struck by the similarity in price moves, although the two companies are vastly different: https://invst.ly/x2rk5 . CWR is more narrowly based in terms of its underpinning technology - and I can understand why you have more confidence in Ocado. Hopefully both will prove to be winners!

Ocado is not very different to CWR in terms of sp chart and vulnerability today eh Chilting? I hadn’t realised that you’re also into this one. I’m much less exposed here and also have a better margin of protection but, even so, it’s looking fairly bleak in the short term if 1560 gives way:
https://invst.ly/x1-iu
ATB

A nice little lift provided by the end of day auction... despite Brent dropping back in the afternoon - and Shell surprisingly ends on its highest closing price of the week AND above the 1725 line. Will 1720 now provide the support to keep it here? : https://invst.ly/x1-ii

Hi NSS: Regarding 'at pace', I was making a rather general comment about companies seeming to make buyback policy decisions without paying particular attention to the sp movements after they've made them, leaving the trading in independent hands. I also believe there are rules governing the daily rate of acquisition of shares - so the pace is necessarily limited. I'm also assuming this next buyback programme can't start until the current one has run its course (28th Jan?). ‘At pace’ may imply quickly but the ‘pace’ can be anything from slow to fast - I just take it to mean ‘without undue delay’.

Meanwhile, it strikes me that, this morning, Shell is levelling out whilst Brent continues on its merry way - which implies that, given all the news it out there for now, Shell may have found its ‘top’ for the time being. It’s a bit early to say with certainty, of course!
https://invst.ly/x1w6q

True enough, Chilting and well said.
Just taking a closer look at the chart: https://invst.ly/x1vup
That trend line in the bottom right is ‘red’ in both the literal and meaningful sense of the word. It marks a line that we really don't want to see CWR cross. Although a brief spike to 820 might just be tolerable, there’s a slippery slope beyond. Above all, investors want to see what has been achieved from the cash raise last March (date highlighted in the chart).
If things do get worse from here, then it’s time to buckle in IMO.
GLA.

I never thought hydrogen was a contender for consumer EV's - always a more likely prospect for heavy vehicle fleets etc.
Having said that, the mineral requirements for batteries needs to be taken into account - efficiency data needs to include the manufacture of the engine, including mining the raw materials. That said, CWR currently burns cash with little substantive news emerging, which doesn't seem very 'green' or encouraging. and drifts ever lower against CELS index: https://invst.ly/x1vao

NSS: AT PACE.....Do they see the price going much higher so want to get in quickly.....
From what I've seen, once companies decide to proceed with buybacks, rather than using the cash to reduce debt or invest in the future, they farm the job out and don't pay much attention to the actual share price.

When it comes to Shell and Brent (or BP and Brent for that matter), it’s not always obvious which one is leading (anticipating) or lagging (reacting). Here’s Brent against RDS in 15’ steps since the market opened on Tuesday - bear in mind that Brent trades for many additional hours overnight, so the 8.00am moves can look a bit sharp or go in opposite directions: https://invst.ly/x1n-a
In reality, Shell does not influence Brent directly as much as the reverse, whilst Brent itself is under global market influences which are common to both. As I’ve observed in the past, it’s when they diverge over a significant period that something interesting is happening. Even as I’m typing this, Brent‘s breakout from Tuesday is continuing - if it breaks $86 then I think sparks will fly: https://invst.ly/x1o4z . Will Shell keep pace with it if it does?

Jim800: I do agree that PR has to be handled right (just look at Djokovic for a lesson in how not to do it) but I'm not sure that Shell can hide away success, or failure, completely. You might miss an elephant in the jungle... but in a brightly lit room ...
I think the SP reaction to Q3 was mostly about the market getting ahead of itself plus OP hitting a significant peak and pulling back.

pastyc: Shell peaked at 1813, with Brent at nearly $86 on October 20th. https://invst.ly/x1930
It's marginally stronger against Brent today. The Q3 results seemed to fall short of investor expectations - which I felt had ramped up too steeply beforehand. With results it's often a flip of a coin. However OP also fell back after Q3 - so the two factors were in play.
I decided to take profits on one of my trading tranches (acquired at 1578) today as I felt the prospects for further gains in both Brent and RDS were cooling off after the EIA figures. However OP remains firm and has itself broken out as I've previously pointed out, so it could continue to head higher. As the Q4 results are still a month away, I think OP will continue to be a main influence on the sp in the meantime - unless there's some company specific news (concerning distributions, for example).

... meanwhile, Brent is also in a breakout pattern. Is it sustainable? https://invst.ly/x13bv

With today's further rise, Shell is now 'spot-on' the relationship it had with Brent at the close on Christmas Eve: https://invst.ly/x1377
For now the sp appears to be tracking Brent - the EIA weekly report comes out later today...

Perhaps today’s jump in SP should not be a complete surprise given the movements in Brent that have occurred over the last week whilst the LSE has largely been asleep. Here’s a 15’ view of Brent, Shell, BP and Chevron rebased to Boxing Day - when Brent trading resumed at around 11.30 pm:
https://invst.ly/x0t9t
It would be fair to say that, despite today’s boost, Shell and the other majors are all slightly weaker against Brent than they were immediately before Christmas. In Shells’s case to the tune of about 30p (The 30 day MA of the Shell:Brent ratio is about 21.6)
So there could be a bit more ‘in the tank’ for tomorrow’s ride…although profit taking seems likely to hold the price back for now and the 1715 resistance may not be breached just yet

.... and have you noticed how BP is flying? even more impressive so far today.

If this surge continues then the next obvious resistance is around 1715 but 1750 comes into view as a credible target region (red circle) https://invst.ly/x0q9k

The chances of topping up below 1600 are narrowing, Char. I'd also take that opportunity if it presents itself. The gap to 1630 needs to be filled at some point though, so maybe....
In the meantime, RDS is following the general trend in OP: RDSv Brent over the last 14 months: https://invst.ly/x0oee

Nice breakout this morning - shame about the 30p gap!!
https://invst.ly/x0o1x