Member Info for Boyobach

If you know what you’re doing you could make a lot of money trading this share ......
The current demand uncertainty caused by Omicron plus the downward political pressures on OP inevitably mean that RDS isn't heading up right now. So 'making money' will depend on acquiring at, or near, the bottom. Many traders will wait to see signs of a reversal. If Omicron proves to be highly transmissible yet relatively harmless then it may mark a turning point in the Covid 19 story.

That's an interesting table Larry, not that I have much clue about the process. I guess that the WTI futures prices for the return dates become rather significant together with the premium charged in terms of volume. To me the offer appears to approximate to a 'free loan' provided it is managed correctly. I think it equates to about five days of US production, so not a magic bullet in terms of reversing the nineteen month trend. Supply and demand will ultimately rule but the difference this time will be that US producers seem very unlikely to fight OPEC+ for market share, which has proved to be highly counterproductive since 2014.

The consensus here seems to be that it would be good for Shell Energy to attract Bulb's customers but not at any price. So, as NSS says, there's potentially a deal to be struck with the Regulator. On the issue of hedging - I hope that RDS' expertise and resources will have mitigated the damage but, equally, I'm not expecting stellar results from that division this year. I think that people like me who have come to the end of their contracts and are now on the standard tariff will be looking hard at all the options when the cap gets raised next year. There's no guarantee that punters acquired now will stay with Shell - so the cost of taking them on needs to be strictly minimised: the time for 'offers' and 'discounts' to retain them is further down the track.

Hi Neversell...Are there any low gaps to fill?
Well interestingly the early trading today seems to have taken out the gap that appeared on 27th September (circled). There's a tiny discrepancy which is probably insignificant. https://invst.ly/wq2d9

A significant day for oil, with the discount of WTI to Brent increasing to nearly $5 - can't be soon enough for Biden:
https://invst.ly/wq232
Have they released their strategic reserves yet? Now may be a good time to do so for maximum effect…. pushing against an unlatched door.
Meanwhile Brent is testing the nineteen month recovery trend since it fell to $20 (blue). Will the trend hold or will Brent level off until Q1 22?
https://invst.ly/wq25z

Shell follows Brent except when it doesn't. And when it doesn't things get interesting - spot the point divergence: https://invst.ly/wq1t2

RDS has hit an interesting support level at nominally 1560 (give or take 20p) and ended the day about 50p up on what might otherwise have been expected. Whether it holds on remains to be seen - it's like a shock-absorber that's averaging out the bumps.

Currently every customer that they add on price capped standard tariff will lose them money......

Currently every customer is losing them money.

Well £30 seems a bit far fetched NSS - not currently on my chart horizon - but today RDS hit one of my re-buy targets at 1540.
Let's just check how it's tracking Brent today:
https://invst.ly/wpwuh
There's a lovely gap up to 1640 which I wasn't expecting, so that's £1 in the bag in the not too distant methinks.

.... with Brent today and, just for a change, here’s a 15’ 'trading' view of Brent with RDS as the comparison line (in red) over the last few days. It’s useful because it shows the ‘out of hours’ OP movements and the ‘catch-up’ that occurs with RDS when the London exchange opens. It also indicates what RDS might do tomorrow if Brent holds onto its gains or rises further… https://invst.ly/woz70

Absolutely agree with your points Bald_E.
I also believe that the US political influence over OP has diminished since the Trump years - KSA less likely to play ball these days. Western Politicians have clearly been unable to control gas/oil prices as they would like. US Shale producers have finally learned that pumping furiously just to pay down debt is less profitable than pumping less for higher margins (doh!!) etc etc.
OP may well peak in the $80s but I suspect that the days of sub $60 Brent are gone for the foreseeable, which paves the way for RDS to trade above a minimum of £18 once it recovers its 30x ratio, with £22 a realistic target when Brent is around $75. Q2 next year should be interesting in terms of OP, I reckon.

The market may be down but ITM gapped down, and was hit harder than many.
https://invst.ly/wowqp
If the blue trend holds (the dashed line represents a lower limit) then ITM should not fall below 375 - which happens to be an historic support level.
I’m underweight at the moment, after taking some profits, so looking to top back up - I guess that sets out my personal interest and target area….

L3T Query: So, the {override} repayment GENL gets back could be higher or lower than the amount in arrears?

The overrides were a deal struck with the KRG in lieu of outstanding receivable at the time (August 2017), which were cancelled, - so there are no arrears associated with the payments and there will be no further monies due if they fall short of the debt that was cancelled:
https://genelenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/genel-agreement-re-receivable-final.pdf

Yep = and they both have a gap to fill - more of an issue for RDS as it's at 1536.
BP has been tracking Brent rather more tightly: https://invst.ly/woiko

Yes caipi65 - it's swings and roundabouts with BP and RDS - a bit like an arbitrage opportunity sometimes.
BP has tended to underperform RDS of late but was well ahead during April and May:
https://invst.ly/wohon .

....and going green needs renewables to compete with fossil. Cheap oil disincentivises transition.
The politicians know they can't have it both ways.

What's bad for some is an opportunity for others. RDS is beginning to offer attractive buy-back levels for those that took profits around £18. A 10% profit is neat. I’m showing it here in comparison to Chevron: https://invst.ly/wogqf . Both are dropping back along with OP but RDS has been the more volatile of the two over the last two months and, if Brent continues to weaken, the low-mid 1500’s look possible for RDS. For its part, Brent seems likely to test the blue trend here: https://invst.ly/wogmm in the region of $75 in the next week or two.
It hasn’t touched that line since late August and a visit looks due. It’s a 19 month trend so breaking through it downwards would signal a significant change in direction and a levelling out at the very least. Of course a bounce upwards off the line would send a different message. It’s interesting to speculate on the likely direction of OP as we move beyond the seasonal winter lows - with January potentially marking something of a low point. We may not have seen the top for oil yet.

This is how RDS has tracked Brent recently (last couple of months): https://invst.ly/wntxn
So it could have been worse for the sp - around 1570 - if it had been following it closely since the 27th September.

Thanks for all the posts here about voting - I'm with ii : so very helpful, I'd wrongly assumed I couldn't vote. It really is a no-brainer despite my slight concern about morale within the organisation. Good video link too NSS!

Yes Chilting - that's Ballard in the Wrightbusses being deployed.
https://www.ballard.com/about-ballard/newsroom/news-releases/2021/03/09/ballard-announces-follow-on-orders-from-wrightbus-for-fuel-cell-modules-to-power-50-buses-in-the-u.k
No mention of Ceres in connection with this knowledge base for FCEB suppliers either, which is disappointing: https://www.fuelcellbuses.eu/suppliers#31

....but I find them quite profitable on a solid underlying upward trend....
https://invst.ly/wlp53
Hopefully FBT will stay above the nominal 30p support (with a 29p minimum)