Member Info for Boyobach

they’re probably the supplier for some of these companies going bust …..

In this context I believe Shell Energy is a trading division of RDS, acquiring gas and electricity on the wholesale market and selling it on to consumers. They are an ‘end of chain’ distributor rather than a generator of electricity or producer of gas. I guess some of their energy may come from other divisions of Shell but, in general, I think they will be as subject to wholesale market prices as the other ‘downstream’ suppliers.
Their renewable electricity, for example, is supplied by matching the electricity directly consumed by their customers with ‘the equivalent amount of units from 100% renewable sources in the UK.’ (piece in quotes from their website).

..... and making bigger losses presumably. Let's hope it's worth it in the end.

Why is NEL sinking? https://invst.ly/wcam8 (ITM v NEL & CELS index)
For over a year now, ITM has generally tracked the CELS index (green) albeit with a fair amount of volatility thrown in. Meanwhile its Norwegian counterpart, NEL, has steadily sunk. I should add that CWR, by comparison, is doing best of the bunch: https://invst.ly/wcaol
But why is ITM’s Norwegian rival faring so much worse in terms of sp? It never did reach the heights - highly premature in retrospect - that ITM and CWR hit in January. All three suffered a knock-back at the end of April but, from the end of July, NEL has drifted ever lower whilst ITM and CWR appear to have found a floor, for the moment at least.

For £5 it needs to break this red first: https://invst.ly/wc8ee

Thanks Casapinos - worth a read. Here's the link again as it got trimmed somewhere along the way:
https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/understanding-the-spike-in-oil-prices?e=46e8066dd8
My only comment is that they seem to imply that OP crashed entirely because of covid although, as we know, there was a price war going on before covid really hit. Doesn't change the central rationale though.

It’s easy to assume that OP is driving RDS currently but there are a number of factors in play. Here’s a 15’ view of RDS v BP and Brent since the Permian RNS gave the sp a kick - ie from 08.30 on the day after the RNS:
https://invst.ly/wc52p
A pink 50p (relative to RDSb) measuring stick provides a sense of scale to the widening gap between RDS and the other two, with a step of about 50p occurring on the 28th September which lasted through to around 8th Oct, since which point the gap with Brent has progressively doubled.
Is RDS getting ahead of itself? Possibly - but some would argue, with justification, that RDS has been lagging OP and has some catching-up to do. Clearly there’s pressure of anticipation building as the Q3 approaches.

Boyobach...your post on 6th Oct :" ITM has broken below a rather critical trend "

I think my exact words were: 'Dropping below the blue was not a good sign….A classic chart indicator that things might well get worse before they get better. '
‘Indicator‘ and ‘might’ are key words, of course and a lot can happen in seven trading days.
Fortunately ITM clung on to the knife edge for a couple of days until the sector got a boost on Tuesday and the cavalry arrived in the form of some positive news.
I still sold yesterday but bought back on today’s deep dip and the apparent news that ITM may finally be getting some orders. It still has to get over the red and isn’t out of the woods just yet, although things are a lot more positive than they seemed a week ago:
https://invst.ly/wbis1
CWR has been through a similar set of cycles and has also sent out warning signals at times. Both are ‘risky’ until the cash flows get going.

Bearing in mind that ITM closed at 387 on Monday, the placing price was entirely appropriate in my view. I took profits yesterday (a 20% rise over three days cannot be ignored) and was delighted to reacquire early this morning. It's a volatile stock and comes with no guarantees - especially with no real profits and cash flow as yet.

As RDS rolls towards 1800, it’s worth keeping an eye on Chevron in order to assess what RDS might be capable of achieving. RDS and Chevron tracked each other closely prior to March 2020 and the dividend reduction by RDS seemed largely responsible for separating them. Also bear in mind that the trend lines here are parallel to each other - so the trends for Chevron and RDS are virtually identical: https://invst.ly/wbe13
Had RDS performed the same as Chevron from March 2020, then it would have been around £23 at today’s op.

High O&G prices are a necessary economic actor in reducing carbon emissions. Cheap oil disincentivises the transition to green energy.

Well there was a clear agenda, wasn't there?

For the record: RDSb during April-November 2018: https://invst.ly/wb62d
It made 2800 for five days (falling on the last of them) and never quite made 2850.
Brent peaked at $86 over four months later on 3rd October: https://invst.ly/wb64i

LTI: Don't know why yesterdays buyback has not registered on this sites rns link.

RNS reporting on this site is very unreliable, best to check here for RDS:
https://www.shell.com/investors/news-and-filings/uk-regulatory-announcements.html

Bimmer: I’m predicting RDSB at £22 when oil hits $100
RDSb’s sp relative to Brent has averaged 20.63p per $1 so far this year according to my notes, but is currently running at 21.05p per $1. Bearing in mind that this year it has peaked at around 25p per $1 (according to my notes - DYOR) then 2200 is not an unreasonable target if Brent hits $100.

Although it started five days before, the latest breakout in Brent got seriously underway on the 22nd September and still continues: https://invst.ly/waw04 , with the RDS breakout currently following along: https://invst.ly/waw6n with a gap up at the open this morning.

You were lucky to get nearly 28 quid LTI - Well done! - RDSb has only made it to that sort of level for a few days in its entire history. https://invst.ly/wapo4 , at a time when Brent was similar to today’s price. For most of the last decade RDS was below £25, even for the four years when Brent was $100+.

Obviously, for a given target the upside diminishes as the sp rises towards it. Interestingly, by way of demonstration, when the sp fell sharply by £3 in late July 2019 it left a significant gap to £26 that’s never been touched since: https://invst.ly/waq-l . Gaps like that inevitably do get filled unless the company in question is permanently in decline from that level. So it’s not an entirely unreasonable target and the upside from today’s £17 would be £9 (53%) , a year ago the upside from £10 was obviously greater at £16 (160%). There’s no guarantee, of course, that RDS will recover to that level - it just helps illustrate how the upside diminishes unless the target moves up with the sp.

Yeah bunks- having sold I'm stuck outside 'cos the current price is too high to be attractive and you are stuck inside 'cos the price is too low to make it worth exiting. QD is a risk but I was persuaded by your logic that the market has probably priced that in. It's all very bullish around OP at present - had I not sold near 150 (expecting a pull-back that didn't happen) I would now be holding to see what happens next.

I was lucky, Halma. Very nice bounce today but not out of the woods . As a minimum, we need to see it regain 1760 and stay solidly above it for the next few months , effectively a mirror of what has happened since March: https://invst.ly/wa8t7
I'll add in stages as it progresses - much prefer averaging up rather than averaging down as I can usually escape with at least something to show for it. ATB

Yes, NSS. All the indications are that it could continue upwards which causes a new set of calculations for investors. This piece states the fairly obvious way the market is thinking:
(Sharecast News) - Morgan Stanley hiked its target prices for European oil majors' shares, telling clients that they were set to generate "high" levels of free cash flow, deleverage their balance sheets "fast" and in turn to increase their shareholder distributions.

So the first question for us is 'To what extent is all the good news already baked-in to the sp?'
Which leads to the next question: 'Have the market got it right or is it an overestimate or an underestimate?'
A tricky time for investor strategy and something of a coin-flip in terms of protecting recent gains whilst also participating in the strong possibility of ongoing growth. Direct distributions in the form of dividends will lead to ex-div drops in sp that, in the case of one-offs rather than periodic pay-outs, will not automatically recover. Buy backs will have a much more nuanced and difficult to quantify effect. Improvement or complete restoration of regular dividends would arguably have the most sustained and measurable effect. Meanwhile, investors who have seen nice capital gains from £10 and below will be wondering whether those gains might now see more upside if moved elsewhere because, as RDS gets nearer to the top, the potential for further upside diminishes and the divi yield also reduces. Sometimes a middle path is best - if a suitable one can be found. There's never a right solution for everyone, which is why sellers are coming forward despite the prevailing bullish sentiment.

Quite right char - I did not anticipate the sharp rise to 1700+ before the Q3 results. Initially stimulated by the Permian sale (and announced 'distribution' ) the momentum has been sustained by O&G prices: https://invst.ly/wa4oz
Whilst global energy supply remains tight, an immediate pullback seems unlikely and RDS may well consolidate its position above 1700. I'm currently interested to see where the new baseline and trading range will settle after the Q3 results bring some clarity. In the meantime I've taken care to lock-in recent gains.