Member Info for Boyobach

I know we are all pleased with the way the sp has rallied recently but, just as a reality check, it’s worth noting how a top Oil Co has performed. By 'top' I mean a US super major. Here’s Chevron v RDS since the pre-covid days at the back-end of 2019:
https://invst.ly/w9xld
Exxon produces an almost identical result.
If and when RDS restores the divi would it catch up with its US cousins?
I suspect they mark the absolute top of what RDS might achieve, which would currently set the ceiling for RDS at 2050 at today's OP.

I added a few today because it finally made it down to the 'last' support level and trend:
https://invst.ly/w9wlt
The current level strikes me as significant decision point: Below the blue trend there's historically not much support until around 1250, although there should be some around 1400 but it's never really been tested. I'm accumulating in small chunks at £1 steps as it sinks.

Well I'd have to agree that we don't know quite what happened around the 23rd, bunks. It appears to have been a sector thing: here's a chart of RDS with G (in red) for the period: https://invst.ly/w9td-
(Because G is more volatile than RDS it's easier to see the comparison with RDS as the main chart).
This tends to support your view that Sarta wasn't the entire reason for the drop on Thursday because the RNS landed on the same day as a more general pull-back . Overall it's a bit weird though - RDS has had a brilliant run recently but partly due to some company-specific news (sale of Permian assets).
G has recovered to 150 level today, apparently on the back of OP. My guess would be that if oil pulled back to $70 (which seems very unlikely at present) then G would drop back to 130 ish . So, I think that, until there's some news about Sarta or QD, G is, largely a play on OP: https://invst.ly/w9tqa

from a traders view its better on the aim, no 0.5% stamp duty.....

So tending to cool down the day-day volatility maybe?

Maybe, bunks but something knocked G back on Thursday morning and it wasn’t OP. https://invst.ly/w9be0
Sarta is in the pilot phase of production and there was some disappointment in the H1 statement, but the real potential is yet to be revealed. Seeing the numbers drop back - rather than the actual volume - was the main factor for me. Hopefully it isn't indicative of the field's ultimate potential. From the H1 statement:

At Sarta, while pilot production has not reached the levels that we had hoped in H1, it is providing valuable information regarding the future development of the field while generating meaningful cash to support the funding of the appraisal campaign. The three well programme is a key focus this year, and we look forward to the results of the campaign, which is now underway following the spudding of Sarta-5. The wells will help give us an understanding of the potential of the field, as we work with Chevron to ascertain the optimal field development plan.

For all the reasons outlined in the excellent posts here, there are reasons to suppose that the rise in RDS will cool off over coming days. Market over-expectation regarding the Q3 results is now a risk too. Whilst Bimmer sees the chance for $100 OP, others will see the potential return of oversupply and the volatility that goes with it. So far, the supply side has been restrained, which is uncharacteristic for US Shale.

Chartwise, there are signs of some cooling off plus a hint that RDS has been moving a bit ahead of OP over recent days. https://invst.ly/w9apm . So 17.20 is starting to feel near the top of the current phase to me - even if there are greater peaks to come further down the line. Much will depend on OP, of course. I’m hedging my bets and sold a few Friday. It was irresistible, frankly - the net cost of my RDS holding is now down to £6 per share after my trading gains are taken into account. I could happily sit on that forever at the current divi level.

That's good, Halma - if you've been successfully trading this on the way down then I understand. Unfortunately, although the pace of descent has eased over the last week or two, it's still in a falling pattern and seems destined to test 1580.

A combination of factors I'd say, Lampedusa - majors peaked on Tuesday and have drawn back a bit. G would have followed that pattern but I think the Sarta figure very possibly exaggerated the effect. It was disappointing but small beer unless it points to something more significant in the long term.
Selling on Monday was purely based on G's 'spikey behaviour', bunks. In fact I started to think I'd got it wrong because it looked like G was going to recapture 150. Indeed, had Sarta been over 3.5 I'm jolly sure it would have done. I wouldn't have looked so smart then. The good news is that it hasn't dropped back below 133, so it's back to levels seen before the BB RNS. Hopefully will build from here.

Well individual tranches of 1000 at around £16 would be a bit rich for me - but I wouldn't be adding at this level anyway because it's on something of a knife edge, with 1580 looking possible. I'm not a fan of averaging down except when it's to optimise the price within around 10%. More than that indicates I've probably made a mistake and should be viewing the exit.
Interesting times here.

Yes, I've taken a small punt on it. I'd obviously like to see it testing the red rather than the blue here: https://invst.ly/w8na1
Bit of a chasm below the blue - as always with this kind of pattern. It is in something of a decision zone. GLA

Good to see payment confirmation.
Not so good to see Sarta slipping back to $2.6m
Still on track for nearly $320m for the year, including December's payment (which will probably arrive in January).

Cheers - thanks for clarifying. Let's hope that support level holds.

Excuse me for asking - totally new here -
We have strong support at this level ? I guess you meant around 1650 Kslonee? : https://invst.ly/w8gng
I'm thinking it might get pushed to 1600 but it does show signs of levelling out: https://invst.ly/w8gop
Halma - I didn't understand 'Just sneaked in at the death for 1000' ... it was 1658 in the auction and 1652 just prior.

Let's hope it clings onto 145 even if Brent slips back to $78 (possible but not likely IMO).
https://invst.ly/w8e3f
Much as I'd like to buy back at a low price, G needs to start building from around 150 rather than just spiking up from 130 every now and again.

Well made points Bilbo & Toneman. Thanks.

It's ultimately solid arguments that win the day. With O&G prices high, now is the time to push for green alternatives. Cheap fossil O&G discourages transition and the political will to pursue it.
I guess the roll-out of hydrogen to replace NG would be a rather more complex task than, for example, the transition of individual vehicle and industrial process - which can be achieved more piecemeal and would ramp up naturally as more supply becomes available. Changing over domestic heating (and cooking) would presumably need to be done as a switch-over on an area by area basis (I'm assuming that even street by street would not be practical?) so unlike vehicles, it would requires all householders - at some expense to themselves - within a relatively large zone to change in synchronism? Would that be the main difficulty? I must remind myself of the process when coal-gas was replaced - although I'm assuming that moving to H could be less straightforward?

Tackling his arguments rather than the person would be rather more compelling, Bilbo.

Dropping below the blue here was not a good sign: https://invst.ly/w88tv
A classic chart indicator that things might well get worse before they get better.
There has been talk of a bubble hasn't there? ITM needs to make progress with revenue generation methinks.

Everyone expecting bumper news.....
Market expectations with RDS are running high as we approach the Q3 results. Long term, RDS is looking good but the market has a tendency to get ahead of itself in times like this. Just saying.
https://invst.ly/w88ku

Both CWR and ITM are down this morning by similar percentages, although ITM has broken below a rather critical trend - equivalent to the blue line on this CWR chart:
https://invst.ly/w87c4
Here’s a wider view which puts it in context: https://invst.ly/w87ci
The drop is not entirely unexpected but It would obviously be best if CWR stays above that line as a break below it would signal the possibility of a more significant downward shift.

Cheers Pokerchips, that OTT thing is interesting. IBC and NAB rather dominate world audio-visual tech shows - NAB has been cancelled twice now but should be back in April 22. Very expensive to attend/exhibit but all major customers of kit attend one or the other or both. Press releases roll out every day of the show, so companies will often time announcements to coincide with their presence at the event.