Member Info for Boyobach

'Wow' indeed chilting! 'It seems that the consensus is that CWR remains a strong hold.'
The market consensus seemed to indicate otherwise to me today and, regrettably, I felt the need to exit for a while to see how this goes. I think CWR will do well ultimately but dipping down to last March's placing price is not good. The dominant trend through September has been downward https://invst.ly/w6hqf and today's statement accelerated rather than slowed it down. 1060 has offered support in the past but, without some news to put the brakes on, I think the sp could well drift further down towards the 900's.
I'm out until the dust settles.

People with solar panels may find this interesting - clearly their electricity is their own property and may be used as they wish.

That’s a useful update, Casapinos. Thanks.
As far as I’m concerned there’ll be zero net effect of the already announced buybacks on the sp in the future -either immediate or long-term.
I’m very sceptical about the benefit of buybacks in terms of raising an sp. This is mainly because they should only have a positive influence if the market is significantly undervaluing a stock and, if the market hasn’t already recognised the undervaluation, why would share buybacks prompt it to change its mind? So I think that the positive effect - if any - is probably quite short-term and only really evident when they are first announced and are effectively ‘priced-in’. When they are being implemented, cash is leaving the company at the same time as shares are being cancelled - largely nulling each other out. Any residual effect is then, in my view, largely due to distortion of the daily supply/demand balance.
I don’t want to get back into the ‘distribution’ debate - but I do think that dividends are much better for most investors than buybacks because, whilst in both cases the company shrinks in book value, with dividends the shareholders are directly given their fair share whereas with buybacks the cash is spent to reduce the number of issued shares with less tangible and quantifiable benefit to remaining holders.

Yes, I agree bunks.
Jim: I described that ‘accumulation’ model very sketchily. I’m adding identical tranches - simply because I want to ramp up reasonably swiftly if things look good and then stop well short of my LT target- it’s not an indefinite process and, in this case, I imagine adding only two or three more tranches to the two I’ve added this week. I also said 10% intervals - in G’s case it’ll be 10p intervals and the theoretical ‘stop’ level- which is only a guide during the risky accumulation phase - will notionally be near the previous ‘buy’ price, bearing in mind that I’ll only be adding if the chart indicates the price is likely to continue rising. Ex div might indeed need a stop adjustment - but remember what happened last time!

The theoretical accumulation from 130 with tranches of x shares would be:
1x, market sp 130, av cost: 130, theoretical stop loss:120.
2x, market sp 140. av cost: 135, theoretical stop loss:130.
3x, market sp 150. av cost: 140, theoretical stop loss:140.
4x, market sp 160. av cost: 145, theoretical stop loss:150. Etc. etc
I'm hoping to improve on those figures in practice but my average cost per share should theoretically increase at half the rate of the market price whilst I’m accumulating. My target gain with G would be 50%, so that will determine the level I’ll stop accumulating. If the situation changes at any point I’ll switch to trading (or bail out). The stop losses are an emergency brake if I'm not at the wheel - I don't like using them.

I agree with Gav about buying too far into a breakout.
Looking at RDS’ last buyback programme, which ran through the end of 2019 until April 2020, they were quite happy to permit buying at £21 for the B Shares. RDS had been slipping since May 2018 and was struggling to stay above £21 before covid hit.
In terms of dropping back from the current rally, rather like last year’s pattern in November, the most likely path is that the current steep rise will overshoot and drop back eventually to a new floor. The top of the overshoot and the new floor are matters of speculation but trends provide some clues as to likely possibilities, always remembering that recoveries from sharp and deep falls, like RDS in March 2020, are often achieved in less dramatic stages: https://invst.ly/w6902

Interesting moves today, especially with OP easing back a bit. The best rally over the last week since the post 20th Aug bounce.
I wasn't expecting to add this soon, but I have a new strategy with G: subject to chart indicators I'll add equal amounts at 10% intervals and chase it upwards, with a stop loss set just below the previous 'add ' to limit the damage if/when they issue an unhelpful RNS and the sp tanks.

I've always thought that gaps in opposite directions cancel out?

https://shell.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/transaction-own-shares-396

Despite the lack of RNSs here on LSE, they are continuing.

Was that re-acquiring the ones you sold yesterday or did you add NSS?
I sold a few myself yesterday but am in no rush to top back up yet. Having got my net cost per share below a tenner I'll happily sit on the rest without trading given the yield I'm getting and the LT prospects. I'd probably top back up below 1550 but otherwise I'll wait to see where the baseline settles.

When did you close that short Darren?

Looking at this morning’s pullback, which actually started when the US market opened yesterday afternoon, we can see that it is largely (entirely?) in proportion to the easing of OP:
https://invst.ly/w5tnc (15 min view)
The underlying gain made by RDS during the rally appears to be intact.

It's a pity that some of the tightening is due to Shell's GOM assets being off-line.

This RDS rally has certainly got some legs, stoglyons. It fell so sharply in 2020 that there’s not much evidence of resistance for the return path there but 1700 does stand out as a sticky region if you go back to 2015.
https://invst.ly/w5ic-
A week or two ago I was saying that the Q3 results should boost the sp, the question now is whether the Q3 results and statement will live up to today’s raised expectations. Hopefully they will, but as the sp continues to fly, the risk flips the other way.

Having done well elsewhere (just guess where exactly), I decided to dump one risky 'going nowhere' share (TGP) and take a punt on G instead. The trigger for me was the lowest G:OP ratio I've ever recorded on my pathetic spreadsheet. There's obviously no guarantees but I did estimate G's potential income for the next 12 months (including receivables and overrides) and compare it to the current mark-cap and discovered they may not be much different if OP holds around $70. I don't expect fireworks but I think 150-160 should be achievable with 180+ if prospects improve.

Check out RDS this week, hydraides.

Could it be that Shell Energy can't expand customer numbers too quickly because they wouldn't be able to supply enough energy from renewables? This might make sense if they must limit the carbon intensive sources they use in order to their green promises/credentials. I'm just looking for excuses for the lack of drive on the website.
Even with the boost of customers from GreenSupplier, their share of the market is still really small compared to the main four or five UK Energy suppliers - it appears they'd need to double in order to match EDF, for example - although the OFGEM website charts I've seen aren't particularly easy to read or very recent.

Yes indeed, triumph. It poses something of a dilemma for top-slicers/traders:
That pullback at around 12.30pm today followed by a renewed attack in the afternoon, hitting 1600, was - as you say - textbook. Is the stunning rally over for now? Logically, it should have been - if 1600 doesn’t stop the advance then the red trend should: https://invst.ly/w59wi but RDS clearly has some wind in the sails. Hmmm.... either an interesting day tomorrow or all over by 08.15 perhaps?

just out of range: in 2022..... (vital missing words!)

Can’t wait for £22.....
I think you might have to Bimmer - these things don't go up in a straight line and, based on this year's rate of progress, 1900-2000 is just out of range: https://invst.ly/w57it Also, bear in mind that if (big if) there's a one-off special dividend of any magnitude then the price will pull back down by the said amount upon ex-div.

Correct, quelfromage, a comparison site would be the norm for many and I did run a check using USwitch. Shell didn't show up amongst the deals - although they are covered by Uswitch, which basically told me to sit tight and not look for a better deal at the moment. However, that doesn't mean that Shell should not have a market leading home page offering a really slick 'user experience'- which it frankly does not. As an investor I was shocked at how bad it was - not in terms of content quality but in terms of slick functionality. We all know a clunky or hard to navigate website when we see one and Shell's web offering looks good until you realise it isn't going to pull in the business. It headlines 'Broadband' on the home page, then Boiler Cover (FFS!!)
You have to scroll to near the bottom to find any mention of energy switching - and then it doesn't take you anywhere useful. Utterly hopeless - Shell better not give up the day job of drilling for O&G if this is the best they can do.