Member Info for Boyobach

Ha! It's a dragonfly but not as we know it Jim....
I hesitate to say it but G had a good day today and, after being asleep for most of September seems to be finally awake to the price of Brent: https://invst.ly/w7-3i
Maybe it will take a firm grip on the 150 level and 'build back better' from here!

Cheers GAG - I agree with your underlying point which - I hope I'm correct - is that the buybacks will benefit remaining investors because other factors will significantly outweigh the loss of the Permian assets.

The boost in early May has eventually faded back, leaving a residual 4p lift in the underlying sp, which continues to rise at a steady and slightly accelerated pace with periodic spikes of around 8-10p: https://invst.ly/w7wv0
These seem to be mainly triggered by news of deals struck by the company, with perhaps the next obvious news opportunity being at IBC, which takes place in early December this year, having been postponed from its usual slot in September.

Good points GAG. So the question would be what, if anything, is next for the sp in relation to the $7Billion from the Permian proceeds? This is presumably already priced-in by the market but, somewhere down the track, we've been told that the cash is due to leave the company as a distribution. If it's a 'special divi' there'll be a corresponding ex-divi drop in the sp but if it's in share buybacks the cash will still exit the company, shrinking its book value and, proportionately, the number of shares in issue, thus leaving the sp at the current market level plus/minus any non-related factors like the forthcoming results, O&G prices etc etc . Does that strike you as correct?

Sorry - wrong chart!
https://invst.ly/w7v34

I have re-acquired the shares I sold on Friday, even though the dust may not have entirely settled yet. It did mean I've reduced my book cost for CWR by over 60p . But was 994 the bottom? Possibly not: https://invst.ly/w7uk9 . I'm anticipating that an add opportunity may yet occur.

GKP, meanwhile, continues to benefit from the strength of OP. I can't quite figure out why G had such a dismal month in September by comparison - the bad news was all out by then: https://invst.ly/w7uk9
Even allowing for the BB news, G should be around 180 according to this.

Ha! True enough H. I was just trying to be a bit more positive.

GKP have announced payment for July’s oil sales so G should hopefully announce soon. It’s evident now that, compared to May, June and July, payments have effectively been pushed back into the next month. With no payment received during the month of August, and December’s now set to slip into January, G seems likely to receive just 10 of the 11 monthly payments that were due in 2021 under the KRG’s own revised schedule (February was also devoid of a payment). It’s not a game-changer but it doesn’t help.

This solar project fits well with Shell Energy's (UK utility) ' green' supply credentials.

...then nothing will:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKgS8YNy2qA
Goldman raises Brent forecast to $90 (posted by mehmehmeh over on RDSB)

Yes, Larry, historically (2016) and again in 2020 there’s been some signs of resistance around 1700-1720 and there was also a tiny gap to 1690 which filled today.
https://invst.ly/w7lv3
NSS: resistance forms where sellers are increasingly coming forward so that the price stalls. Some people will therefore choose to sell and take profits which causes the price to drop back. However, there’s the obvious risk that demand will overwhelm them and take the sp to the next level, leaving them behind without a chance to top back up. As Jim says - it might or it might not! Once the price passes a point of resistance then it often becomes a support level- slowing the price if it drops back.
Now that I’ve taken sufficient cash profits to get my book value down to £9.75 per share, I’m personally not interested in risking further trades with RDS, especially whilst it’s potentially heading back towards £20 and with the effective yield for me over 7%.

sorry - that doji might not be a positive indication - best to read the link I provided for a proper explanation.

I must confess to selling near the top today. I hinted at an elephant in the room when I mentioned the presence of spikes in G’s chart and the ‘note to self’ in a post yesterday. I think if I’d said more at that point it would have been deramping because the sp may well cling on to its recent rapid gain, especially if today’s dragonfly doji turns out to be a correct indication: https://invst.ly/w7l3n
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dragonfly-doji.asp

Truth is that G was going up quicker than I’d anticipated for my ‘accumulating plan’ and I couldn’t ignore the swift and profitable trading opportunity in front of me. When it failed to keep going today despite Brent heading towards $82 it was a further signal to me that it might otherwise have dropped back.

Cheers Dartron. I haven’t used the pitchfork for a while but it does have its benefits - setting the pivot point (the ‘origin’ in your note) is always interesting - I used to adjust it very finely so that the lines matched the trends I’d come up with. It was a bit of a fiddle but often worth the effort. I’m a bit lazier now and tend to hop between a simple ‘trading’ 15 minute chart and the long term ‘daily’ ticks. The way CWR was moving I just felt the odds were more in favour of dropping further rather than bouncing - it was going to be one or the other. I hate averaging down - so tend to err on the cautious choice. ATB

yes Jim - 'prediction' and informed guess are two different things!! if I can avoid obvious risks and give myself a better than 50/50 then using the chart has paid off. The chart ain't going to predict a nasty RNS, that's for sure, but it may give a clue as to how steep and deep the sp is headed afterwards. ATB

OK Jim - First thing to say is that I think of the charts as indicative not predictive - they should reflect, subject to some minimal interpretation what happened in the past and how that might continue, which helps me spot whether the price is continuing in that pattern (trend) or whether it is starting to deviate and move in a different direction. As they say with kings, the 'trend is dead long live the trend'. In the example you mentioned, the blue line would have got broken later indicating that the price was likely to keep going down (which, as it happens, it did) the blue line would then get redrawn when the price reached its next minimum and so on. But, as you can see there comes a point where the price starts to reverse leaving the line intact - essentially the trends are just markers which help me judge if the price is continuing or changing direction. I don't believe in 'prediction' as such, just trying to gauge the odds of one outcome against another and the potential direction that the sp is likely to be taking. I avoid buying a share which is in a well defined downward trend - ordinarily wait to see a credible sign that it's reversing - so I invariably don't catch the very bottom. Sometimes I'll take a chance on the support level holding though.

Here's my homework Rangor.: two charts which cover the period from 6/3/20 to today, one for G: https://invst.ly/w6yjw and one for GKP: https://invst.ly/w6yjl to allow comparison.

Whereas in the early years, G was regarded by many as a safer bet with good management (questionable in retrospect) and a strong balance sheet, GKP tended to be seen as a riskier proposition with a cowboy at the helm. The latter characterisation seemed to be proven when GKP eventually collapsed financially and had to be restructured. However, although the phoenix that then arose didn’t always match G, it has more recently flown ahead and appears to be the stronger of the two, having almost risen back to late 2019 sp levels (unlike some majors).

The red and blue ‘wedge’ on each chart comprises the extreme top limit (red), which originates at the respective sp’s peak of around 300p in 2018, and the lowest limit (blue), formed within the period (allowing for an initial overshoot in G’s case). GKP has recently broken above its wedge and is currently levelling out. Because of this, G should now have more upside potential than GKP but the companies are far from identical. The major difference is, of course, that GKP has a single massive resource and simply needs to keep pumping and get paid, whilst G has a mix of producing resources, some of uncertain size, and has recently advised that it may well lose two of its most promising non-producing assets. The market always prefers certainty and consistency, which GKP has in spades but which G has never demonstrated convincingly. Secondly, GKP seems to have rolled with the common issue of KRG payment delays whilst G has been more deeply undermined by them, perhaps because they have hampered funding to develop assets like BB or diversify

G’s chart is more volatile than that of GKP these days, featuring noticeable spikes of 20-35p, So, it seems that without big and solid future prospects (like BB and Miran) G may be more of a trader’s toy than a LT holder’s nestegg. (note to self: Why am I currently re- accumulating here?)

In terms of sector comparisons - here’s G v GKP, the FTSE O&G350 index and Brent over the same period: https://invst.ly/w70lq which serves to show how G’s relative decline in sp following the 2020 results has been worth between 30p and 60p compared to its performance up to that point.

Hi Dartron, I’d hardly call what I do ‘analysis’ - it’s really just gazing at trends etc and trying to spot changes in direction and likely channels.
I’ve added a dashed line here where I suppose a trend could be squeezed in - but I couldn’t make it fit convincingly, which is usually a sign that I’m skewing things to fit with what I want to see (daily ticks):
https://invst.ly/w6u0c
I haven’t changed my mind today because there’s nothing on the 15’ chart that indicates a change of direction to me. https://invst.ly/w6u1t
I always watch the highs on a falling trend and, for me, CWR will remain on a downward track until it breaks through the two trends in that last chart - at which point it’ll either bounce or level out for a while. The main problem for me is that, coming on the heels of the results - which weren’t bad IMV - what is going to drive it up? I think it could well drift and, in the current climate, I think it’s more likely to sink than float, in which case I think 930 (which crosses that blue ‘bottom’ trend at an interesting point on the first chart) will exert a gravitational pull unless something comes along (like a lift in the CELS) to counter it.

Ha! Rangor - what f***ing good did the runes do us before?
Will have another look and get back before the weekend is out (TFI Friday syndrome here tonight)
At least the roller coaster that is G is going up at present.
I think there could be a lot of sense in LuckCounts comments and I need to look again at GKP too - last time I'd concluded that the upside potential wasn't great (obvs it was very very good at times in Jan and Aug) Logically speaking, there should be fewer risks over there but I've never climbed aboard.