Member Info for Boyobach

this is where lag chart indicators go out of the window……
On the contrary: it’s where they confirm a change of direction, if there is any, in response to the news.

Let's hope so sa1986 : the British Gas thing didn't come to anything.

Oil has ten years minimum doesn't it ?
The problem is that Big Oil (like Shell) see a better return currently in buying back shares.
This serves no one in the long run: it's a brainless strategy - and I'm a Shell shareholder.

Investing is business - don’t let it get personal.
Managing shares is full-time work. Don’t ‘buy and forget’ - like flowers and weeds, shares need to be watched and managed.
The benefit of a board like this is that you get a range of views: the most useful ones are those that challenge what you might be thinking and make you re-evaluate. Some will be obvious rampers and some will be the opposite, it matters not: Does what they say have any logical merit? Above all, don’t get stuck in an echo-chamber that simply reflects what you think.

Not a good day but, hey, 1225 was a result given the knife drop and the volume.
https://invst.ly/xccv9
Pity it didn’t hold 1250 - bit of a near miss, which leaves a bit more doubt, unfortunately.
As someone else here said. best to let the dust settle before doing anything rash IMO.

Shell just tracking Brent today: https://invst.ly/xccnl
So nothing ‘Shell specific’ happening, apart from setting off in the wrong direction at 8am!

Missing from what account Oilman? SHEL is the new ticker applied in most places.

Despite hitting $94 , Brent has been showing signs of cooling off over the last week: https://invst.ly/xc6qd

Well if 1250 doesn’t hold then 1000 -1070 is the next most obvious range:
https://invst.ly/xc5dt
Quite a gap down this morning but understandable as a result of falling through the red (text-book cup and handle pattern).
It's never smart to bet against shorters and the result were not destined to be exciting were they?

Cheers Chilting - will do.

I'd just like to back up John4242's comments NSS, which I took as explanatory rather than negative. We had earlier discussed the fact that the Shell sp just isn't as strong as it used to be (in 2018) when measured against OP. LongTermInvestor (I think) has also pointed out that the Shell:OP ratio is far from being a constant. As I've said before, Shell tracks OP except when it doesn't - and those are the times when company specifics or other market influences have more control over the sp. John's comment about US production is a worry - it would be so easy to get back into the boom & bust cycle - some would say it's inevitable. If they have plans to increase production then they'll likely do it in time for US driving season.

Thanks Chilting - I assume you have to register to access their shorts data, is that correct?

For all here but especially those who've participated over at GENL, I'd say today was a 'Reason to be Cheerful'. It was encouraging to see Shell pop up over the rising trend it’s been on since before Christmas and also strengthening further against OP (it’s now exactly a £1 above my estimated sp based on a 30 day moving average of the ratio). This is good news for those looking forward to £24 and higher :
https://invst.ly/xbxvy
2040 was a potential level of resistance (for both RDSA & B) and we are also approaching the last of what I’d call the ‘recovery gaps’ in the region of 2085 (RDSB) /2100 (RDSA) which is of about 40p depth. A very positive day in my view.

Hi NSS:
Your query was: ‘according to your graph Boyo oil is up 42% and we are up less than 10%. Surely that means we have a way to go yet? ‘

On that particular comparison chart, rebased to a random date in Feb 2018, Brent is currently up 42% and Shell is DOWN by 9.7%. I’ve marked the 0% line in red here: https://invst.ly/xbnud and you'll see that the Shell % for Friday was negative.

So, yes, if Shell was as strong in relation to OP as it was back in Feb 2018 then it would be over £30 per share. At that time the ratio of Shell’s sp to Brent ($ per bbl) was roughly 35x whereas today it is averaging about 21.8x . There are numerous reasons for this - and everyone here will have a view on which are the most significant.

Trendwise there’s not much to encourage optimism yet:
https://invst.ly/xbkk4
It continues to be under downward pressure until it breaks above the blue line here. 1370-1550 looks like the last-chance saloon and it needs to be above it by end of March, with 1680 a month or two after that ideally.

The article says:

Shell’s 30% operating interest could fetch as much as $4 billion….
Wood Mackenzie Ltd. valued the stake at $2.3 billion, assuming a long-term oil price of $50 a barrel….

So $4 billion does look like top whack at present. $3.5 Billion possibly? Can't argue with it as part of the ESG strategy either.

Indeed Larry - it's both a pity and totally inappropriate that they are using RDSA data historically. RDSA was the Dutch tax-specific pricing and that is the one that has been discontinued. You appear to use spreadsheet tables rather than charts? - being a simple soul I need pictures rather than numbers. I can still access RDSB for comparison so might use that to tweak trend and support/resistance lines if it seems necessary.

What's to stop this hitting £30 by end 2023 except a major oil reducing recession ?

The same things that are stopping it today maybe? https://invst.ly/xbjdp
Based on OP alone, Shell could be above £30 today based on best historic performance.
But things are a bit more complicated than that aren’t they? And two years is a helluva long time in global markets.
It's all been good for those who got in near £10 .
There's no particular incentive to trade it at present, because the potential gain from buying back lower may be quite low or not materialise at all if it continues to follow recent upward trends. However, some will take their profits if they can see better upsides elsewhere.

1) Who thinks Shell will hit £24: I think it may well hit £24 at some point.
2) When do you think it will happen: When OP reaches $105-$110 or, failing that, end of Q3 at the earliest.

£24 represents a near 20% increase on Friday’s sp which itself is a two year peak driven by excellent results plus a seven year peak in OP. So it isn’t a given for 2022 in my view. Ordinarily a temporary pull-back from here would be anticipated but these are not ordinary times. The short, medium and long-term trends identified here (broken lines) suggest that the next significant level of resistance could be around 2150 unless OP continues solidly above $100: https://invst.ly/xbhva
NB: my charts are on Investing.com which, since the name change, unfortunately seems to use RDSA rather than RDSB for historic Shell prices. Although the two naturally tracked closely, with a difference of typically 10p prior to 2020, differences of up to 70p in daily closing prices appear to have occurred during the last couple of years.

It seems worth noting that Marshall Wace increased their short position from 0.7% to 0.81% ( a near 16% increase in their position) on Jan 28th - the day CWR hit 515 and then recovered to close at 546. https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BG5KQW09/
So they are presumably not closing out yet and I guess they would be able to trade without making any further declarations provided they return to their declared short positions within the necessary reporting deadlines. Perhaps others here have a better knowledge of the finer details?