Member Info for Boyobach

The pressure to be less reliant on fossil fuels from Russia should accelerate the green transition too.

Yes - two days ago from 0.9% of shares to 0.83% ? I'm looking forward to seeing that continue to the point it is reflected in the price. Every little will help hopefully.

Chart reposted with two unintended and misleading numbers (in blue boxes) on the right hand scale removed: https://invst.ly/xhnte

Cheap as chips today and, perhaps, cheaper than chips tomorrow. With 515 gone, the next support level looks like it will get tested: https://invst.ly/xhndb

Maybe… maybe not.
Apart from the distraction caused by the 9th Feb RNS, we haven’t seen a potential reversal. All the trends for CWR continue to head south, with the latest ’blue’ being a resumption of the downward slope that started the decline in early January:
https://invst.ly/xhllu (15’ view).

Price moves over the last five days seem to be confirming my comment about the falling orange trend that has become apparent this month: https://invst.ly/xhktb

Quite possibly AS - in my experience it's not usually a good idea to bet against hedge funds.

A trend in price, in any market, simply reflects the direction that has developed over a period of time. They are most useful when they indicate a change in direction as the price breaks the pattern. Once one trend becomes broken a new one will eventually establish but early attempts at spotting them are highly speculative. I haven’t found the AIM investments I’ve held to be much different in behaviour to others in the main market. CWR’s very definite downward trend (blue) this year came to an equally definite stop and, despite a couple of tentative upward moves, no reverse trend (which I speculatively showed at various different stages in red) has lasted more than a couple of days.
https://invst.ly/xgytk Indeed, the most obvious prevailing trend is the much longer-term downward (orange) - shown here in context:
https://invst.ly/xgyws Hopefully the sp will break above that in the near future but, apart from the brief RNS reaction, it has shown little prospect of doing so to date.

I have to declare that once someone urges me to have faith in something without giving convincing reasons it triggers doubt in my mind. That is because it is one thing to have faith - I prefer the word confidence - in something (or someone) that has a proven track record but it is a totally different matter to believe in something without any rational basis. There are very good reasons supporting the idea that CWR will ultimately prove to be a success but it is not, as far as I’m concerned, a certainty.
As AquaeSulis has pointed out, there hasn’t been the consolidation of support for the sp that I’d hoped to see or continuation of the infant trend I was optimistic about last week. The only observation I can make currently is that neither the long term orange or green trends identified here has proved to be dominant. https://invst.ly/xgkog The potential rising red has not established itself (hence the dotted line) and continues to be pushed ever lower. So the sp seems most likely to continue sideways in the 500-600 range until one of them takes control.The odds about which will win are something of a coin toss IMV. 515 looks like the bottom but it hasn’t been tested much yet.

CWR from yesterday’s LSE close, v NASDAQ and CELS indices:
(15’ view) : https://invst.ly/xfi6v

Glad that's cleared up for you Nomad.
I've never been to Asia - I just keep odd UK hours. ATB!

Nomad - Are you confusing the spot price with the normally quoted Brent 'front month' price ?
The spot price - for immediate delivery - may well be higher than the futures price given by ICE, where the 'front month' is currently April 22.

Longterminvestor: Whilst, from a day trading perspective, the immediate sensitivity of the sp to OP is quite relevant, for long term investors it adds a certain amount of ‘noise’ to Shell’s sp which it is useful to identify and filter out. However, it also has a longer term underlying influence which is quite elastic but cannot be ignored. If OP were to drop back to $80 tomorrow, for example, then I think it would have an immediate and significant impact on the sp followed by a recalibration over a period of time. Those of us who manage our long-term holdings will at some point need to trade, which necessarily involves timing decisions that can be heavily influenced by OP movements. I'm mindful of it rather than fixated.

Thanks everyone. I think maybe I was misunderstood - assessing potential downside is not the same as having an upper target in mind (mine is currently £24). And, yes, Shell trades on forward contracts - but the sp responds to the currently quoted OP, so $125 would have a massive impact as Nomad says.
Meanwhile, £20 may eventually be a floor on which to build but, judging by yesterday, the concrete hasn’t set yet. The trajectory for OP has hardly wavered in nearly two months and I'm interested to see what happens to Brent (and Shell's sp) as it approaches the two year trend ceiling that has previously pushed it back. We’ll find out soon enough, I think.

Well, despite selling pressure today, the closing price matched yesterday’s so not too bad. For the moment we need to see consolidation rather than swift rises - which just stimulate understandable profit taking. Even as someone who plans to retain my core CWR holding, I might still trade a recently acquired tranche if I see a 20% or greater day gain (like last Wednesday’s) because, depending on other factors, it can present a more likely profit opportunity than a lesser increase. Meanwhile, I’m much more likely to allow a similar increase spread over a week to accumulate untouched.
It may prove to be a tedious slog but 680 by March 1st would be a result as far as I’m concerned. https://invst.ly/xf3d3

Things have been going well recently but I think it’s always good to look at the potential downside - hope for the best and plan for the worst.
Given that we are heading towards the normally higher demand season for oil, it seems that OP should remain strong, even though a chart of the last two years suggests that some cycling back would ordinarily occur in coming weeks:
https://invst.ly/xe-cb
So, whilst $100 still looks achievable within the present cycle, it’s near the top end of my near term expectations although I acknowledge that, for four years from 2011, the normal price consistently averaged above that level.

Obviously there are a lot of factors that can disrupt OP, which is volatile at the best of times. Has the Ukraine situation artificially sustained the price above $90 and what are the prospects of significantly increased supply from the US and elsewhere resulting in overproduction? We are all very aware of the rate at which OP can suddenly change direction when supply tips the delicate balance with demand.

Shell’s sp tends to smooth out some of the volatility and, for now at least, OP seems likely to average above $80 during the current year, which I think should place a lower limit of around 1750 under the sp https://invst.ly/xe-ku until 2000 hopefully becomes established in due course.
What do you guys think?

The media invariably reports exceptional profits without mentioning the context of exceptional losses in a prior period. Any 'windfall' needs to be judged in relation to background events and average performance. On the basis of a fixed shareholding, a long term holder in Shell remains worse off than they were in 2019. Those who have profited have done so at the expense of those that sold at a loss. The dividend continues to be less than half what it was.

The NASDAQ CELS index bottomed out about a fortnight ago - on 27/1/22. At least CWR and ITM appear to be finally reacting to that change of direction: https://invst.ly/xepxl
After today’s nice rise, maybe CWR will hold onto 580+

Roby says we are the same league as Pfizer.... Really??
Canaccord Genuity has said in the last week that:

Cash on 31 December 2021 was A$8.9mm. If the
Q2 operational cost outflow of A$6.5mm before capital investment continues, MGC may require further funding unless sales rise....
We have previously estimated that MGC will generate c.A$20mn (£11mn) in revenue, mostly from ArtemiC and CimetrA. MGC now needs a significant sale boost in H2FY22 but with five months of FY22 left, management remains optimistic. We continue to regard the shares as a SPECULATIVE BUY with a price target of 7.2p.

https://mgcpharma.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2022/02/MGC-Achieving-major-landmarks.pdf

I think it would be useful to have more news regarding production progress at the Malta facility.

What is there not to like? ……
Slow rate of orders for the kit / IP Licences?
The RNS impact last week was quickly nulled out after the market digested it:
https://invst.ly/xeddv
Let’s hope this can break back over 580 soon.