Member Info for Boyobach

The severe rising cost of fuel associated with the war in Ukraine is damaging to our society and this negative impact could more than offset the immediate bottom line profits that are accruing for Big Oil. The calls for a windfall tax will undoubtedly grow as the arguments for such get stronger. And this quote in particular, from The Independent, may resonate with those of us who are not entirely happy with share buybacks:

‘Big Oil will argue that any additional taxes will hurt production, but that would assume they’re using their extra profits to expand production, or perhaps even invest in clean energy as part of their much publicized net zero policies. Neither is the case. Instead, many are engaged in massive stock buybacks that are designed to benefit their CEOs and wealthy shareholders.’
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/putin-big-oil-americans-gas-prices-b2030415.html

Another nice trading day. Much as I could ride this trading pattern for months (recycled my lowest tranche by selling it again at 680 earlier), I’d quite like to see CWR catch back up with the CELS index: https://invst.ly/xl8ki (rebased to late November)

….It might be interesting to see how it looks after the US market opens this afternoon…..

So here it is at the LSE close:
https://invst.ly/xl8fk
(chart rebased to 11/2/2022)

Shell shares worth over 3000p?
OP isn’t everything - and that’s why Big Oil sps have not tracked it fully over the last week, even in the US where they are much more shielded from the shortages that the conflict will create. Here’s Brent v Oil Co’s on a 15’ chart from March 1st: https://invst.ly/xl3zq
It might be interesting to see how it looks after the US market opens this afternoon.
There are two ways of viewing the current sp in relation to OP: either Shell is low and lagging OP or, alternatively, the very high OP is artificially propping up the sp. Where would the sp be today if Brent had remained around $90 ?

Thanks Biotech but I'm capable of writing my own letter to my MP - and I'll only do so when I've got a clearer idea what the full story and the long-term impacts are. Oil is not a luxury, it's an essential and strategic commodity - we need to pace ourselves through this conflict. The UK running out of fuel prematurely , like a Russian tank on the road to Kyiv , would not be a smart move.

I think that if the UK Govt is effectively endorsing an otherwise dodgy purchase then a ministry official should be quoted in confirmation: Shell is either acting in the national interest or in its own interest and needs to be crystal clear about it.
What about the other (non Shell) ship at a terminal for the Essar refinery Stanlow on Friday? Someone needs to get their act together so that approvals for essential and legitimate supplies are transparently obtained and applied.

I hope that's correct NSS. As long as the government makes a statement to confirm that it was a strategic necessity then it's OK. But if, under those circumstances, they permit Shell to be portrayed as dirty opportunists then that's unacceptable.

I'm a bit confused driftking - on what day did you see French and US oil sp's rise by 20%?
Total (French) has moved very similarly to Shell and BP and is about 11% down over the last month.
XOM has gained only 2% over a month https://invst.ly/xkx77
The biggest recent riser seems to have been Chevron which has risen by about 15% over six days - not one.

I have to disagree, Char. The west's response is clearly about firm containment. The price for Ukraine is, regrettably, already very high but it is better that this intense pain is limited within the historic Russian family of states rather than widespread. Ukraine is so closely bonded with Russia historically that this is almost a civil war. If the west permits him enough rope, Putin may ultimately hang both himself and Russia’s imperialistic and authoritarian culture without a NATO shot being fired.

Well, that certainly enhances the likelihood of the gap fill (as discussed in the thread about OP and Oil Co's).
Shell's statement apparently talks of having 'no alternative' (according to BBC News). There was a simple alternative, of course: not buying the oil! Although that may well have resulted in a UK supply shortage it would have been a problem for society to face collectively rather than a seriously damaging PR issue for Shell. It also demonstrates why anyone with any sense should be recognising the possibilities of fuel rationing as the conflict continues.

I think I commented on that gap at the time, FS. A ‘continuation gap’, which occurs as part of a significant, rapid and long-term re-valuation may take a very long time (years) or effectively never fill. Gaps appear to fill when the normal trading range moves sufficiently close to them. The gap down to 1630 only requires a similar drop to the one we’ve seen over the last two trading days in order to fill, so it has certainly moved back into play even though it would also take the sp to the very limit of Shell’s 14 month rising trend:
https://invst.ly/xklwa wider view: https://invst.ly/xklyy
I think it will influence some people’s trading decisions and, to that extent, gap filling may well be a self-fulfilling market feature. The question is, if it does fill, will the price only spike very briefly or will it form part of a more sustained price drop? My guess would be the spike.

Pokerchips' comments are, as usual, apposite. But even given the backdrop, Bird isn't performing well for some reason
Unfortunately Blackbird has been falling out of the sky for six months now and, having flown above them for most of last year, it has dropped below the NASDAQ tech index and AIM100 at pace since Jan 24th.
Blackbird v NASDAQ Technology Index (NDXT) and AIM100 for twelve months:
https://invst.ly/xkhkj
For 2022:
https://invst.ly/xkhsz
Neither view is pretty.

Here's a quick check on how the year is going compared to the NASDAQ CELS. Not good, obvs, but CWR is making progress on the come-back: https://invst.ly/xkggp

https://invst.ly/xkg8y
Shell (daily candles & sp scale) v line chart of daily closing prices of :
Exxon XOM (NY)
Chevron (CVX) (NY)
BP (LN)
Brent (UK based on ICE front month)
Total Energies (LN)

Rebased to 0% on date shown
Please bear in mind the differences in market closing times each day.

I don't know where the bottom will be char but I don't plan selling. I don't need to buy, either, but if Shell drops below 1750 then I'll be interested: https://invst.ly/xkbuu

if they sell half the oil at twice the price then they actually win. .....
Not if they are being paid in roubles, of course. How do they get to use the$ that oil is traded in?

Nice one Ripley.
For me, trading is the quickest way of climbing out of the hole that appeared here in January.
I bought back similarly this morning, although I also have my eyes on the more ambitious lower target of 580 , which is easily within range, especially if MW and other shorters keep doing the work for me :
https://invst.ly/xkba8

Ah! its the OANDA price - cheers longterm, thanks.
It's not the same as ICE but usually pretty close.

So Marshall Wace continue to hover around 0.8%, having increased slightly on Tuesday. which does correspond with the sharp pull-back that day. It's best not to fight the shorts, of course, better to make use of the low prices their efforts produce.

Hi Seav: By 'valuation' that is Market Cap you are presumably referring to?
It apparently has a lot to do with the fact that Chevron never cut their dividend in 2020 (Shell's is still only half what it used to be). The divergence in Shell's sp dates from around that time and a chart shows that, had Shell continued to track Chevron closely, the sp would have been about 50% higher today: https://invst.ly/xjwu6