Member Info for Boyobach

SFH300: Yes - a great deal of wishful thinking here with very little substance to support the suppositions that the price direction is about to reverse. As OWLS has said, there have been numerous posts regarding the supposed ‘bottom’ but the charts have never provided a strong reversal indication. The best we’ve seen has been a slowdown in the steep decline from mid November but no credible reversal (the breakout on 5th April did not continue). Indeed, today’s price move indicates a likely resumption of that steeper ‘red’ trend: https://invst.ly/y2n-p

750 does now look rather inevitable to me: https://invst.ly/y2nap with the 910 level’s spongy support allowing the price to slip to 860.
We may not be sure whether the red’ trend is still alive but it’s pretty clear that the drop continues apace: https://invst.ly/y2nfr

Yes, 910 has been punctured during intra-day trading but remains intact for the moment. The pressure hasn't lifted much, however:
https://invst.ly/y22zj

‘Bought yesterday at 910. Sold today at 935.’ The range of comments certainly reflects the various expectations and targets of the PI’s here - many LTH’s and a few ‘day-traders’ it seems. I can’t say that 2.7% over 24 hours interests me - too much like hard work sat at a screen. However, I accept that no share should be bought and forgotten, and reasonably quick 10% gains can be attractive for pure profit or for top-slicing. OCDO offers a full range of opportunities but hasn’t served LTH investors well unless they have traded in order to manage their net cost per share. With that in mind, three charts for LTH’s rather than day-traders (who need to watch intra-day trends more closely):

910 (current nominal support level) in historical context: https://invst.ly/y174y

How 910 remained under pressure last week (15’ view): https://invst.ly/y17dl

How the three month (orange) trend compares to the six month (red): https://invst.ly/y178j : signs of a slow down.

There appears to be a 50/50 chance that 910 will hold this time around but the red and orange trends will both need to be broken in order to indicate that, in that event, it won't be re-tested fairly soon.

Today saw a little bit of short-term levelling out:
(15’ view) https://invst.ly/y04f4 (ignore the erroneous spike down to 9.5p!!)
and it therefore seemed worth acquiring a trading tranche on the basis of the prospective short term price pattern:
https://invst.ly/y04dn
There are no guarantees, of course, but trading profits are one way of controlling the net cost per share. I think it’s better to have trading in mind than ‘averaging down’ - which is simply digging an ever deeper hole in my view. The long term trend will remain downwards until that upper orange line gets crossed - sooner rather than later hopefully.

Ha! As psychics go, Casapinos, you’re up there with the best of them as far as I’m concerned. It’s all good fun.
I’m not sure why today’s sp is a joke for slater. It’s just tracking Brent isn’t it? https://invst.ly/x-zc7
Brent volatility continues to cool, bringing the price onto the two-year upper blue trend line here: https://invst.ly/x-z1g
Unsurprisingly, perhaps, Shel is also remaining close to its upper long-term blue: https://invst.ly/x-z3g
There's still lots of uncertainty though.

Newdealz: I was just demonstrating that simple moving averages are not hard to do, I’m not doing your work for you. Moving averages do exactly what the name says - if the price is going down then they follow the price down until it turns, at which point they slowly react. It’s not rocket science and not especially useful in my view. What they essentially lack is a feel for the peak highs and lows that the sp might be expected to touch - which give a more sensitive indication when things are changing. Like all chart tools they indicate what might be expected based on past performance - they are indicators of change rather than predictors,
For example, based on this morning’s sp, it’s conceivable that the downward trend for OCDO is softening:
https://invst.ly/x-y84 providing it closes very near the current price. A 15’ (or shorter) view gives a tighter indication for trading purposes

If its that easy why dont you just add the MA lines and repost it?
https://invst.ly/x-u6w

It's not a blog Billy but, in answer to your comment that ' ...there are a few on here who can’t accept their investment is seriously failing' you will find that that is a common issue on discussion boards, which are often polarised between those who are heavily invested and those who are looking for a bargain in-point. Where do you sit on OCDO?

Big drops bounce Newdealz? Like when exactly? https://invst.ly/x-r7y By all means refer to this chart to justify your comments.
For someone who can’t post charts (not a difficult task) your comments are as banal as Pokerchips has pointed out. Please illustrate your points - otherwise they are basically irrelevant.
Looking at a 15’ (minute) ‘trading’ chart, it’s interesting to see that twice this afternoon purchaser/s were prepared to pay 1035p - ie 50p over the odds: https://invst.ly/x-qf1
Volumes would obviously have been a factor, not that it helped lift the underlying price - the market wasn’t buying it and the price continued to fall to 950.
Would I buy now? No. Do I believe OCDO has good long term prospects? Yes.
Would I add when this reaches my estimation of the bottom? Yes - but with caution.

.......what goes down must come back up...
A common myth and mistake. Not to say that OCDO won't recover but all the signs point downward for the moment.
Regarding 'repeatedly bouncing back up' - a genuine bounce would take it out of the prevailing downward trend for a sustained period, which hasn't happened in a long while: https://invst.ly/x-otm

OCDO’s escape from the downtrend was unfortunately short-lived and, even worse, it has now dropped through the 1000/1060 support line. So it’s back on the very slippery red slope and into 2018 price levels: https://invst.ly/x-mlh
At this point, the obvious target levels of 875,750 and the gap fill down to 550 pop onto the radar. There’s been much debate here on whether OCDO is worth the market cap, currently around £7.4bn (my estimation based on 752m shares), although doubters tend not to state their assessment of the value. Would anyone care to put a number on it today?

Given that this is a discussion board for Shel investors, it would be a bit daft if we didn’t discuss the price - and it would be equally daft to take comments here as advice.

Today saw a nice continuation of Friday’s pull-back. I say ‘nice’ in the context of this chat, which is about buying. As a LTH who has recently top-sliced, I’ve got mixed feelings about how low I want this to go in order to represent a nice ‘top-back-up level’ without knocking the overall value of my holding too much. The gap that’s been left to 2188 is bound to be filled given the strength of energy prices and supply constraints (even with shale set to increase production).
https://invst.ly/x-bod
However, I do have strict profit rules for sold tranches and I’m not really likely to reacquire this side of 2015, even though it is getting tempting.

I agree afrc, and I'm considering that exact point ie just how attractive would 650 really be to me?
Just looking at CWR v the CELS index and ignoring short term trends for the moment, it’s apparent that CWR’s recent fall is reflected by the index. Precisely where CWR should sit in relation to the index is rather subjective but I put it roughly as shown here, which places CWR ‘on par’ at around the time of the 2021 capital raise: https://invst.ly/x-8u0
If that’s a fair comparison, then CWR has lost about 200p (around 23%) in relation to the index over the last year. Most of this occurred in Jan 22, of course, and since that low point CWR has recovered about half of the gap that opened up. So there’s still some way to go. Having traded CWR and significantly reduced my paper losses, I now need to weigh up my next move - which basically depends on whether CWR’s support above 680 proves strong enough to mark a new ‘bottom’. If it drops to 650 then I think it would become vulnerable to a deeper fall - my actual top-up target if it fails to hold 680 would be near 600 but I certainly hope it doesn't drop that far.

Unfortunately the latest iteration of the red trend prevailed over the green, forcing the price back down.
https://invst.ly/x-5ld
It left a tiny gap at 720 which will hopefully get filled as part of a recovery but, in the meantime, we need 680 to hold.

What would you say is the best price to buy?

As the sp has just dropped downwards through the five week orange rising trend here and failed to recapture it during the day, the immediate answer depends on whether and how far it continues to fall: https://invst.ly/xzp6p
It also depends on whether you fully understand the risks involved and have weighed these against the current dividend level and your realistic prospects of making any capital gain at this stage in Shell’s recovery from pre-covid price levels: https://invst.ly/xzpcp . So it is only you that really knows the answer. If you are a novice - as your question implies - then I'd suggest you don't act in haste and take cautious steps.

Brent v Oil Majors since last week’s LSE close (15’ view): https://invst.ly/xzp0w
Shell came out best over the period with Chevron having an uncharacteristically bad week.
Brent continues to be squeezed: https://invst.ly/xzp2a

I think 2260 was a good price in trading terms Littleaston. With Brent falling below its level at Friday's LSE close, Shell is the only major in this group to have held its price gain: https://invst.ly/xylwo . So the question is whether today's gain in Shell's sp is permanent or whether it will drift down to parity with the others.

Ha! Keep it coming casapinos!
Over Easter, Brent seems to have settled about 4% up on its level at the close of LSE trading last Friday: https://invst.ly/xy8o0 with CVX and XOM nudging up today by only around 1% in the US. So I would expect to see Shel back over 2200 tomorrow if Brent holds overnight. Not spectacular, maybe, but in the right direction for recapturing 2230 - a significant support level prior to January 2020. https://invst.ly/xy8pp

Yes indeed casapinos - I had been surprised to see the drop this morning but what about the bounce since the LSE closed and your post? Wow! I'm not into conspiracy theories but the timing was striking - too late for the market to react. And it immediately broke the red trend in Brent I was concerned about: https://invst.ly/xxgar
As usual, Brent's moves between now and Tuesday could have a profound effect on Shell's sp when the market next opens.