Member Info for Boyobach

Seems a fair assessment and worth reading - thanks for posting Valueplay.

Let's see..... do I wan't Shell at £21* or war with Russia? Hmm.... tough choice.....

*$95 Brent would put Shell at nearly £21 on Monday at Friday's ratio, terms and conditions apply and other options are available if you are Boris Johnson.

Keep on trucking.... https://invst.ly/xdno0
Brent and Shell have been the closest of mates for over a week now.
Brent is showing signs of levelling out as $100 approaches: https://invst.ly/xdnpr so the last gap up to 2130 (RDSB) might continue to be elusive for a while.

620 would be nice but I'll take a close at 595 or above.
It's often a case of down in the lift and back up by the staircase.

As AquaeSulis pointed out to me yesterday - a worthwhile presentation (particularly the Q & A , I thought)

I absolutely agree Chilting - I should explain that I'm not touching my core holding.
There are times when a share takes a dive and I prefer to roll my sleeves up and get stuck in rather than sit on my hands.
I've already recouped some of my paper loss and I topped my trading stock back up today on the basis of an encouraging interpretation of the last couple of weeks. It's rather soon to be identifying meaningful trends, of course, so a lot can go wrong. https://invst.ly/xdkpn (15' view - red trend highly prospective and optimistic!).

It’s a tricky time, Slim. Expectations regarding CWR ran too hot a year ago and the sp did get ahead of itself. I’m sure Berenberg would say something about two separate divisions of the bank being involved in the JV and the analyst ratings - but I remain sceptical of rose tinted broker ratings in general. I’ve decided to put my ‘Hydrogen is the Future’ mentality into a cupboard for a while and to look at CWR as if I was a shorter: how would I play it from here? The RNS did seem low on substance to me but it may have been enough to secure 500-515 as a floor for the time being. If it trades between that and 600+ for a while then I can deal with that until more substantive news comes along..

GreyMatter: 'I don't like the idea of messing around with buys and sells .....'

Given that comment, I think investing in shares, whether on AIM or the main market, may not be the best choice for you.
I wonder what attracted you to CWR in the first place? Not that I'm actually seeking an answer - that's a private matter.
You only have to look at the 'hockey stick' shaped rise (always a red flag) in 2020 to realise it was too explosive to be handled on a 'buy and forget' basis. https://invst.ly/xdbsd
CWR remains high risk today - people are inclined to downplay this and quote positive brokers (who may often have a vested interest in promoting a given share) but the fact remains that although there are exciting prospects here, nothing is guaranteed.
My final comment is that I'm waiting to see what happens if this fails to regain 660 fairly swiftly, in which case 520 ish would be a natural buy-back zone for me. So, by implication, I'm not considering selling or buying within that band. However, below 500 is progressive stop-loss territory as far as I'm concerned .

That's reassuring AS.
I'm not convinced it's much different to what we already expected though.
I'm also thinking that that is how the market is reading it.
I'm still here for the long term but, given we are two years further down the track, I'm increasingly focussed on what they are delivering rather than simply on the vision. Patience is one thing but turning a blind eye to an abandoned JV and unreported trials is another. I'm aware this is partly a CWR fan club but I'm an investor not a cheerleader.

A 15’ take on the day contains a hint that today’s falling trend (thicker blue) may get tested tomorrow : https://invst.ly/xd8uf in which case the sp might regain 600 with a fair wind.

Today’s drop back shouldn’t be too surprising though. The substance of yesterday’s RNS, rather than the headline, doesn't really seem especially transformative in terms of expectations for Ceres.

To me, the announcement essentially contained three main items, which I’ve summarised to highlight the Ceres ‘headline’ elements. Item one does not involve Ceres directly but through extension of an existing licence. Item two seems to replace the intended JV between Weichai and Ceres that never happened with one that now includes Bosch and limits Ceres to a maximum 10% share. Item 3 reiterates previously understood Licence agreements.

1) Bosch and Weichai intend to form a JV with Bosch as the majority shareholder. Ceres will not be a shareholder in this JV but will provide the SOFC technology through an extension of Bosch's existing manufacturing licence to supply the Chinese market.

2) A three-way System JV ("System JV") will be set up for the development and manufacture of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems. Ceres will hold a maximum 10% share with Board representation. Bosch and Ceres will licence their respective SOFC system IP to the JV for mobile and stationary applications in China and will share royalties from the sale of products. Weichai will be the majority shareholder.

3) Licence fees of £30 million from the System JV and Stack JV to Ceres are expected over the next three years in line with those agreed in the original Weichai-Ceres agreement in 2018, with minimum payments and annual royalties receivable following start of production from each of the JVs.

So, nothing actually ‘new’ or groundbreaking for Ceres directly? And still not finalised, of course.

The only question now is: What will happen at 548? https://invst.ly/xd6ju

The gap was always a risky area
They're gravitational - you are more likely to fall into a hole if it's nearby.

If you are still waiting for a Weichai bus, then you might be better off hitching a lift:

From RNS dated 17/2/21:
Weichai continues its bus trials employing Ceres' SteelCell® due to complete in H1 2021 as a key step towards establishing a Joint Venture between Weichai and Ceres in China in mid-2021.

My interpretation: Successful bus trials are a prerequisite to establishing the JV.

From RNS dated 27/7/21:
Positive progress on the establishment of the joint venture with Weichai Power in China, despite some earlier slippage in timing of the technical programme. The new programme for a stationary power module reinforces the strong working relationship between the two companies and both parties are aiming to form the JV by the end of the 2021.

My interpretation: The two company JV has been delayed by six months and is due to be formed by the end of 2021. The bus trials are not sufficiently interesting to mention but stationary power is.

From RNS dated 13/1/22:
Weichai and Ceres remain committed to entering the Chinese market with solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology. Discussions on the planned strategic relationship including a joint venture in China are progressing positively and we look forward to providing a further update to the market as soon as we are able to.

My interpretation: The JV is being delayed further. The bus trials are still not mentioned and are presumably not proving very compelling.

From RNS dated 9/2/22:

…..non-binding Heads of Terms have been signed setting out plans for a three-way collaboration with Weichai Power ("Weichai") and Robert Bosch GmbH ("Bosch") to access the substantial opportunities that exist for fuel cell technologies in China…..The addition of Bosch to the existing Weichai and Ceres partnership, and an increase in scope to include stationary power applications, significantly strengthens the planned joint venture. It is now intended that two separate Joint Ventures ("JVs") will be formed in Shandong Province….

My interpretation: A statement was necessitated by the fall in sp. The JV has still not been finalised and it is now recognised that Bosch’s support is needed. There is even more emphasis on stationary power, with no mention of the ‘key’ bus trials for over six months. Prospects in that direction seem to have all but evaporated..

I don't think anyone said they weren't a factor, AS. They would certainly assist any shorting activity wouldn't they?

I think there’s a bit of a pattern in terms of early morning falls in price here. If I was shorting a share, would I fight a rising tide, like yesterdays, or let it run its course and then try to trigger a day’s fall? It would be very tempting. with a gap in play, to see if I could make use of it….

My thoughts in response to Greymatter:
Firstly, if you are very overweight in CWR then you should be seeking to eventually reduce that exposure rather than increase it.
Whilst there can be good reasons for adding to a holding if the sp falls, ‘averaging down’ is a consequence rather than a valid reason for doing so. Each tranche of shares we acquire needs to be justified in its own right. Buying more shares at a lower price does not reduce the loss made on the existing shares. If an sp falls unexpectedly then we should first consider whether the fall is likely to continue and, if so, whether selling is the best option given the risks. We should only add if we feel the price is unlikely to fall further and recognising the increased risk it exposes us to. If we do add then we should be clear about our intention: we either do so to increase our holding for the long term or in order to trade the shares for short term gain - perhaps to offset the paper losses that have accumulated. Either way, we should only add if we believe the price has reached a bottom and we are fully prepared for any further fall - perhaps by setting a stop-loss (or progressive set of stop losses) to provide some protection. During CWR’s recent fall I decided to add at particular support levels with the specific intention of trading the newly acquired shares rather than keeping them for the long term - each tranche will consequently be sold if/when it reaches or exceeds the cost of the tranche above it. This was a ‘high risk’ approach because I did not wait at every stage to see definite signs of a reversal. In retrospect I bought the first tranche much too soon at £8. If the sp cycles up and down on the way back up then I’ll trade the cycles - effectively riding any waves created by the shorters. In those circumstances I won’t be too worried if the recovery is relatively slow.

But inching up slightly, with the market close intervening as OP slipped back from the day's high.
https://invst.ly/xct3x

A nice lift in price during the last hour and a half, puts OCDO near the edge of a 75p gap upwards:
https://invst.ly/xcsvu (15' view)

Well 660 was held, just, in the closing auction - rounding off a satisfactory market response to today’s welcome RNS. https://invst.ly/xcsn3
It’s as well to remember that one swallow doesn’t make a summer. The trend from here will confirm how solid today’s rise in sp will turn out to be and if there’s likely to be a progressive recovery towards previous levels.
The sharp rise left a troublesome gap which, as part of a continued and sustained recovery, may not be revisited and filled but it’s lurking there should there be a drop back, which is part of the reason I took my first tranche of ‘recovery profits’ this morning when the price hit my first target. I usually bank a proportion of gains on the way up as they come in handy if/when there are pull-backs. I just need to hit the next two targets or re-load if there's a drop back.

Anything north of 660 would be promising.
https://invst.ly/xcmfj
Below that level I think there's more of a chance of a drop-back.
I sold my first 'recovery' tranche today at the target price of 640. Very happy with the response to the RNS.