Member Info for Boyobach

It's certainly been very close to that on ICE, longterm. As a matter of interest, what is your source for the price?

Cheers Longterm - I guess the extra shares were part of the BG deal?

Stevebt: I must say that I do find share buybacks a disappointing use of cash. Interesting that you partially sold in order to get better dividend return elsewhere. As the sp rises the yield drops making it an increasingly attractive proposition.

Well you are right about the market taking a conservative view about the spike in OP, Barrie: https://invst.ly/xjmbl

There's an element of 'wait and see' about the current situation isn't there? For one thing, the OP spike may well trigger a slump in demand, as some pundits are already saying. Spring is upon us and although gas demand will soon be tapering reserves are in a weak state aren't they?
As I think I've explained already, I've taken my profits and don't intend top slicing further unless I'm really sure of the top and that there's sufficient likelihood of a worthwhile profit on buying back. If Shell gets over 21.30 then I may continue to hold but set a fairly tight and progressive set of stop losses. But don't hold me to that!

..... at the end of February 2014, the RDSA sp was around 2180 and the divi was $0.47 per share: nearly double today’s $0.24. Brent closed the month at about $109, so a bit below today’s 112
Monthly chart, with Feb 2014 marked: https://invst.ly/xjlts
The ratio of sp:Brent was roughly 20x then, whilst today it’s around 18.2x - having slipped from a recent average of 21.3x and a peak of 23x in December)

Things have changed since then, of course, BG was acquired for one thing. But are share buy-backs really making up for the halving in divi - as today's sp implies.

Hey Casapinos, I’m an armchair waffler - not an expert!!
My thoughts on this - very much subject to debate - are that you should probably think of it another way: if the market knows a company will lose $20billion in three months time does it take three months for the sp to react? I don’t think so. When the front month OP changes all the other months (which are usually in Backwardation) tend to change in some kind of proportion. And so does the sp because any change will eventually ripple through the system, so why wait? The only lead/lag I see in the charts is normally due to market timing - it’s easy to forget that Brent line charts often use closing prices and the ICE and LSE markets have different hours. So I think market timing can cause many of the ‘apparent’ divergences we see in charts: like Shell closes low (red falling candle) on a day when OP rises sharply after 16.30 (Brent line goes up). But I’d welcome other thoughts!

Yes, you’re right Nomad. I thought I’d do a quick chart to compare RDS, Total, Chevron, Exxon, BP and Brent over the last couple of months:
https://invst.ly/xjace
Total & BP: interesting ‘coupling’ in sp reaction the last five days.

NSS bought a few yesterday and I indicated that today’s price is a bit rich for me. So I’ve clearly been more interested in the prospects of a short term pullback than upward moves - which are great for my core holding but of no interest to me in terms of trading. For, although the chart has come close to suggesting a pullback, it ultimately hasn’t done so and yesterday's announcement hasn't changed that position. Were it not for the war, we might reasonably have seen Shell near the 2100-2130 gap IMV: https://invst.ly/xj66x and the price does seem to be consolidating quite nicely above 1930 ish.
I should also say that, looking back at Shell’s sp during the golden era of 2011-2015, I don't have great expectations of it reaching the upper £20s https://invst.ly/xj6el . The acquisition of BG and other events have changed the picture, of course, but there are more obstacles to navigate now.

If CWR’s relationship with the CELS index in December was a fair reflection, then CWR could be making 830+ fairly swiftly: https://invst.ly/xiwmg . 1000p is a relatively short ride from there.

NSS: ‘Hopefully peace talks will lead to something but I'm not confident as I can't see any way for Russia to save face to the world.....’

It’s hard to see both Russia and Europe coming out of the crisis well. And the end may still be a very long way off indeed.
The UK might fare slightly better as it’s not so much on the front line.
If there’s economic collapse in Russia then it could trigger something of a rewind to the immediate post-Gorbachev era. They surprisingly recovered and democracy began to develop in those days under Yeltsin, also under Putin in his first term as President, but state corruption, autocracy and imperialism ultimately seems to be the Russian way and, next time around, oil and gas may not provide the cash to rebuild that it has for the last two decades. The Russians do give Communism a bad name don’t they?

I'm surprised you are adding NSS - not because I think Shell is a bad bet but because I've done well enough over the last fifteen months, taken good profits and have a nice core holding at a bargain net price. The upside is flattening off, I think, but I would add at £17 or maybe £18.

I think PhatStyle is right. Anything that reduces dependency on Russian sourced fuel will be a priority now.
BP is just one component - and their transition course just got rather more vital for them.
I wasn't aware there'd been an update on MW shorts since 24th Feb though. I do assume that shorts will be steadily, if not rapidly, closing. My next 'recovery trading' target range is not hard to guess from this 15' view: https://invst.ly/xitja
ITM has done nicely for me today too.

After the hit that BP took following yesterday's announcement, it's not surprising. There'll be some damage to Shell and some others too, though not nearly so great. Any non-Russian gas resource is now going to be a focus - and Shale fits with that. They were flaring the stuff like crazy in the US - couldn't give it away a couple of years ago, I recall. Meanwhile, those of us who are trading our way out of recent paper losses have had a good run during Feb. My target of making at least a £1 per traded share, 20% + ideally, is doing nicely with another profit bagged today as it touched £6.90 I'm still overweight in CWR but should be back at par and in the black soon at this rate. Will take advantage of any pull-backs too.

Let's hope we get a statement tomorrow. The impact on Shell looks like it should be a very small percentage compared to BP according to numbers I've seen, where a $25 billion hit has been mentioned in the Independent and around 20% of its profits (BBC)
I've seen about $1billion mentioned in reference to Shell's 27% of Sakhalin-2.
Merger time?

Please ignore the two random and misleading numbers in blue boxes that appear in the right hand price scale of that chart - an irritating quirk of Investing.com's charting tool.

what do the charts point to now that it has broken through?

Ha! it’s way too soon to identify any kind of trend but, if we assume that the breakout continues, then we could reasonably expect the momentum of the last two days to carry the sp to the next level of resistance in the region of 670-680, where it will either get turned back, or move up into the 680+ trading range and, hopefully, build from there. https://invst.ly/xid5d . IMO it’s very unlikely to recover as quickly as it fell last month and will need to build in stages. Although there’s been a lot of chat about MW’s short positions, they will sail with the market wind, won’t necessarily be in a hurry to close out and are still (pending an update on Monday as per PhatStyle's post) above their January level of 0.7%. There are other shorts, of course, but I don’t get to see daily updates - so I’m inclined to regard MW (which represented about 25% of them in January) as an indicator of the overall position.

Ukraine, Russia and Belarus are like three siblings that were born over a thousand years ago - the Kievan’ Rus - so their historical links go deeper than with other parts of the old USSR. Following the Russian Revolution, Ukrainians have tried to break free a couple of times but the truth is that they have resources, fertile land and a strategic position that the Russians, specifically Putin, want to control. All of that is in addition to his own personal needs and ambitions. If the west reverts to business as usual following this then it will pay an even bigger price eventually because he already has a sense of weakness and division that he can exploit. If anyone is likely to push boundaries - both literal and metaphorical - then he’s the guy to do so.

Well it's been an encouraging start to the day Chilting: testing the trend that is holding it down: https://invst.ly/xi224

Yes, well done Chestec - CWR and ITM did really well this afternoon after a dreadful morning. Tech stocks in the US had a good day too, it seems, with CELS up by about 7%. Let's hope it continues.

Hi Simon - I see you posted that link twice . You seem to think it was relevant to today's sp moves but I'm not sure why. Yes, it is critical of the EU's plans regarding green hydrogen but that doesn't mean they're about to change their policy does it? Hydrogen Europe may well be lobbying the European Commission to change its proposals but I don't think it will influence the sp until a decision is finally squeezed out from that bureaucratic monster's rear orifice. Have I missed something?

An interesting dance today, with the afternoon's rise in CWR starting ahead of the US market opening: https://invst.ly/xht-6
The morning was possibly a good time to close some shorts? Interesting to see if the MW positions get updated in the next couple of days.
Encouraging as the afternoon was, with one downward trend (blue) breached, the net position regarding CWR won't be much improved until we see the orange trend broken and a firmer base established above 600: https://invst.ly/xhtvl