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I think your wide range speaks rightly to the high volatility of this market and the risk in prediction. I agree that anything below the middle of your range (SP hovering around 195 this week) looks like a really sound investment and that's presumably what the MMs need to offer to those larger interests waiting in the wings before it will go anywhere, which may explain why it's where it is. I'd be optimistic about seeing the upper end of your range before too long anyway but my crystal ball may need a polish :-)

Just topped up again at 188

Hi denby69 - because if you were only to look at the RNS on its own (summarising business up to December 2020) the value of the company would be a lot lower than it is now. It's the operational updates published since then, and the change in price of BTC , and the optimism of those who bought shares in early 2021 that puts a higher value on it. In that sense the RNS is very reassuring but doesn't break any new ground. More to come...

Nice to see some measured sense among the banter Hexam. The RNS is all very positive indeed but almost all previously known from interim reports. It absolutely reaffirms what a successful year 2020 was for the business development - but that was all well before the share price rocketed in February 2021 and subsequent operational updates etc, as well as the fluctuations in BTC etc. ARB seems to be on a great forward track with huge potential but it's early days and there is a lot of pain in navigating the transition from a traded company into one that secures a base of larger investors (who really don't like volatility, base decisions on more than optimism and are still a bit wobbly about the whole blockchain sector). Many small buyers seem to be quite saturated or underwater with their holdings so demand from larger investors is what will drive the SP up. The RNS does help but market profile raising, and sector confidence building, is still really needed (which is why next operational update and the N thing also matter).

@EnricoPallazzo 13:39 - "A quick jump to 195p followed by 200p and 207.50p in quick succession, methinks."

Closed at 187.2

Just topped up again at 186

@Saby - why 'wow'? ARB has been hovering steadily around 190 for three days.

Thanks

Can you explain your basis for assuming BTC value of $10,000 = PE ratio of 1 (or is it just arbitrary for relative projection?)

Another predicted rise! When will this one be?

Steady as she goes today in current range, pending market movements before the long weekend (London closed Monday) ...who knows where next week, depending on you know what...

Seems sound and helpful

ARB is in fact exceeding expectation on BTC trends at the moment, hopefully due to all the well-founded optimism about the business, zoom out, looks good

Interest seems to be growing still.
Lunchtime yesterday - 950 trades, averaging 20k shares
Lunchtime today - 1400 trades, averaging 21k shares
...but three times as many larger trades today (30+ trades over 2 million shares)

I wouldn't want to give any impression of wanting to talk this up or down, what the graph seems to show is that the ARB SP has tended to overreact to both ups and downs in the BTC sector market (roller coaster). I agree it looks like a market leader for various reasons, hence it's become popular as a traded stock (personally I see it as an investment stock). It's very volatile to buyer/seller sentiment, more volatile than BTC and more volatile than its competitors. Yes, it is worth more than they are but exaggerated volatility is what I think your graph really shows.

@Mittinator - "Back up to 200 imminently as BTC targets $55K+"

Let's hope so (fingers crossed) but on the basis of what exactly? Why does ARB 200 equate to BTC $55K? What are you basing this on? The first time BTC passed $55K the SP did jump up to 200 (because lots of people got very excited about it). Is that a basis for assuming it will jump again? Or would it rise more steadily second time around? I've no idea to be honest.

I'm all for that and very optimistic about this investment, although putting money on the stellar trajectory of that imaginary arrow would be a risky assumption in the short term.

It paints a picture of the SP, not performance, with an imaginary arrow painted on the end. It is exactly the kind of problem I was alluding to - trying to predict the market by investor sentiments and popularity rather than fundamentals. It's not a beauty pageant :-)

@Saby - "sub £2 was not on the card either once we touched $60k"

sorry for troubles in getting tied up underwater for a while, sounds like a pain and, as you say, limits your other short term options. Nevertheless, you just can't make an assumption like this. Of course this risk was on the cards as a possibility. If you look at the correlation I posted earlier you can clearly see that buying in then was on an uptide well in excess of the value of BTC. Hopefully that turns out soon to be a good investment (and I do think it will) but the risk was clearly on the cards at that price point if you look back at the data.

Pretty picture for context https://imgur.com/a/8IAuyrD