Member Info for Blubay

It's not performing poorly, it's outperforming Bitcoin which is really saying something this year! If you had put £1 on BTC at its peak on 1 January this year and put £1 on ARB at its peak on 7 January, you would have made more money on ARB by now and by a good margin (45% return compared to 35% on BTC).

Maybe, maybe not, I think we should be delighted that ARB outperformed BTC by a healthy margin in Q1 this year (that's quite something). We'll see if that continues as BTC rises into Q2.

On the plus side, BTC is 36% up since its 1 January peak and ARB is up 45% since its 7 January peak (which to be honest seems justified considering its emerging productivity advantage in the sector)

I posted this on another thread but if you were to standardise the SP against BTC price at the beginning of this year and then plot the evolution of the two prices on a daily basis you can see how they diverged and converged, and how the SP experienced more volatility than BTC in the ups and downs (relatively speaking). https://imgur.com/a/8IAuyrD

The point is that confidence in the company, evidence of its operational evidence and future prospects, have had a greater effect on SP than the price of BTC recently, but public confidence in BTC more widely also seems significant.

@Gatti - this share does not 'coordinate with BTC' in any absolute way. It did for a few weeks at the beginning of the year until mid-February and it has come back a bit in line recently but there hasn't been a very strong correlation between ARB and BTC price movement on any kind of daily/weekly basis. That might change of course.

If you were trying to publicly position a company like ARB at a moment of maximum investor confidence you would probably aim to do that when BTC was also on an upward trajectory, for example somewhere between now and the predicted monthly peak (i.e. during the first half of May)

@Eastwood - no problem, if you look at the BTC price record on any of the online charts and zoom out to say '3 months' view, https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin
you'll see the last Friday of each month and the following cycle

29 January (lowest 31 January) - high 21 January
26 February (lowest 25 February) - high 13 March
26 March (lowest 25 March) - high 16 April
30 April (lowest 26 April) - high...??????

If you look at the historical pattern of BTC prices this year you will see a monthly cycle (at least for the past three months). Following the expiry date on each last Friday of the month there has been a recovery and then a peak above the previous peak. There's no guarantee this would happen again this month or any other month but some models would suggest that momentum, so most people are expecting a rise...starting...right now...

BTC is not the only factor in the value of ARB but obviously it is a very significant one (both for current holdings of BTC in the company and future mining). The trend in BTC also underlies market mood/confidence about the crypto industry as a whole. If the market sees BTC growth as predictable and positive then ARB looks a safer buy for investors, etc...

sorry UTC, itchy fingers... :-)

...with a target price of $54k for maximum seller profit, so that's where it will be

almost all @ 8am New York
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-options-market-eyes-4-2b-expiry-on-friday

ditto @184

BTC up £1k overnight

Yep, a good proactive move both symbolically and in business terms. It also diversifies revenue potential for the project in its capacity to sell solar power (very competitive growth market in the US transition away from fossil).

@Xenor - "I sold around 40% of mine for a 14% loss loss this morning."

I hope that works out as a good decision for you and you found a good use for it with which you feel less stressed. Remainder of BTC monthly option positions will be up tomorrow so we might see a resumption of cyclical movement in BTC after that. Then it's a waiting game for more specific ARB company news.

@calamari - completely agree that ARB presents a really good investment case without having to persuade anyone of the S2F model projections (although it's a neat hook line to spark interest). There's also no need to persuade anyone who's already here about the upside of ARB's efficient blockchain mining but, to put it bluntly, it's not the people here you have to persuade to buy more shares at higher prices. However great the business, you either need to persuade a very large number of new small investors to join the party above 200 (like early adopters did at the beginning of the year) or you need to hook bigger fish.

For context, the median average trade here this morning was about 400 shares for £800 @190. There were maybe a dozen trades of larger interest, averaging above 45k shares for £86k @187, and maybe another 70 trades above £20k in value averaging around 190. Continued consistent performance, greater sector stability and increased company visibility are likely to make more difference than waving a $1m BTC flag from the rooftops. The BOD seem to be doing a great job on two of those and there's gradual progress in settling the wider public confidence in BTC.

Thanks for the opinions, very helpful

...for example, on basis of evolving market confidence in BTC (and other relevant blockchain) how does a 2021 market cap range of say £1-2 billion sound as a compromise?

@RookieInvestor82 - thanks, some helpful thinking although the "S2F model which gets us to $100k BTC in August / September" is the upside estimate and open to debate. If you run the same line of estimation on the downside BTC price risk over same period and compare that bottom line then you have some sort of a risk range to present to investors.

@RookieInvestor82 - "We are on track to make £100m plus this year"

very good, definitely a possibility ...but what do you think that makes the whole company actually worth 'this year'?

I totally agree that the future upside significantly outweighs the downside risk but you have to consider the wide risk range that larger investors need to put on any consideration to buy and hold just now. Happy to punt part of my own pension pot on this but I'd demand a prudent entry point before staking other people's pension funds on it. Some stabilisation of the global BTC trend would help of course and once larger buyers do come in others will follow and that will have a stabilising effect on the SP too. Risk reward looks good to me but I understand why there's caution too.