Member Info for Blubay

Do you think those things have not been priced in already to some extent? I totally agree it's under priced where it is but there's no point benchmarking valuations against the over valued SP back in February. Even where it is now, ARB has still outperformed the huge rise BTC during Q1 this year by around 9-10 percentage points (which is fantastic). Imagining that it has outstripped BTC by 150-200% in that period seems a little (pop)optimistic. I agree it should be up above 200 on today's BTC showing, maybe 206 by now, but there's plenty of time for that.

300-380p on what basis?

GBX 200 = USD 2.77 (or thereabouts)

ARBKF REAL-TIME LEVEL 2 QUOTE
MPID BID PRICE SIZE TIME
GTSM 2.65 825 10:18
INTL 2.65 500 10:17
MCAP 2.64 3,334 10:38
NITE 2.64 4,510 10:26
CDEL 2.63 100 10:48
CSTI 2.62 100 10:48
MAXM 2.50 100 08:48

MPID ASK PRICE SIZE TIME
CSTI 2.66 9,500 10:49
CDEL 2.73 640 10:48
INTL 2.73 455 10:30
NITE 2.73 355 10:27
MCAP 2.78 1,000 10:38
GTSM 2.78 100 10:03
MAXM 2.80 100 08:48

and 5 year forecast... 1303.440 GBX

I was rather hoping to average somewhere around 280-290 by beginning of Q4 but it's anyone's guess at this point :-)

sure, but not on a minute or daily basis? BTC is rising and no doubt ARB will follow if that continues.

@Cavemandave - got it in one, although to be fair ARB significantly outperformed BTC in Q1 so it was a price worth paying, but larger investors need the ship to be a steadier or the entry price to be attractive (hence the position of the market makers)

Why do you assume the SP moves with BTC?

@0134 - "I like this, would be interesting to see Mara and Riot added too. Obviously other things are priced into the SP, but would be interesting nonetheless."

As nothing much on at lunchtime, here you go. I added RIOT and a linear trend line for the value of BTC covering period Q1. By chance or design you will see both ARB and RIOT plot rather precisely onto this estimated value at start and end date of period while going similarly bonkers in the middle (didn't get around to any others). Hope that helps. https://imgur.com/PLHGkOC

Just to revise the method, BTC dramatically peaked on 1 January and has cycled high peaks monthly since. ARB and RIOT both peaked in response on 8 January. No point comparing anything before this date, Q1 of 2021 has been new territory. I just standardised the SP for ARB and RIOT against the BTC price on 8 January then plotted those daily values forward to yesterday.

NB: the key limitation in this method is whether you think ARB or RIOT were over or undervalued on 8 January ! But you can just raise or lower your curve by a constant according to how you feel about that (or by a variable if you think the value has increased monthly). The purpose of the chart was only to show that the SP didn't track BTC for those that imagine it did.

I just downloaded 'all trades' for today from LSE in excel and sorted them volume
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ARB/argo-blockchain-plc/company-page

Larger trades creeping in...
2021-04-30T10:25:00.377 GBX 190.58 63436 £120,896 Off-Book XLON P LRGS
2021-04-30T10:23:29.743 GBX 190.58 60000 £114,348 Off-Book XLON P LRGS
2021-04-30T10:35:26.187 GBX 190.58 50000 £ 95,290 Off-Book XLON P LRGS

As others have said, Derebit is standardised across the world to fix at 8am UTC, only the residual changes after that on CME
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-options-market-eyes-4-2b-expiry-on-friday

There may be derivative option contracts that expire in London at 4pm but the main BTC exchange options closed this morning at 8 UTC

There's great interest but it's still early days for this company and the base seems to be mainly smaller investors, many of who are already fully committed and others underwater after coming in high. A lot of people will be waiting to see which way the wind blows for BTC and ARB. The volume difference will come if/when new and larger players take an interest, including more investments from America, assuming the company lives up to its so far excellent performance and expectation.

Most options expired at 8am UTC this morning.

Hold onto your hats

Airtel Money seems by far the most interesting factor looking forward. Having seen the wildfire spread of informal systems of mobile transfer in Africa (transferring phone credit between friends, family, local traders) there is huge capacity for the rapid adoption of more formal mobile based systems in the region. The Mastercard investment, credibility and technical know-how seems to add hugely to that potential. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

A few bargain buyers this morning...

2021-04-30T08:00:07.970 182.0 28684 £52,205
2021-04-30T09:03:54.400 184.0 28000 £51,520
2021-04-30T08:33:40.033 182.2 27453 £50,006
2021-04-29T15:37:13.000 189.9 25000 £47,466
2021-04-30T07:18:56.023 186.3 21363 £39,789
2021-04-30T08:51:09.137 182.5 19897 £36,312
2021-04-30T09:10:12.000 181.5 19477 £35,351
2021-04-29T15:35:04.000 188.2 19218 £36,168
2021-04-30T08:08:13.440 182.4 17504 £31,927
2021-04-30T07:03:49.713 185.0 17000 £31,450

yes, it was just a trade that went through at 190

No-one knows, and it's Friday, but if you were planning to buy more shares then today might be a good idea... ;-)

...oops, just popped 190 now