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CMET has had the kitchen sink thrown at it in terms of negative reaction to the Sheffield deal falling through + a crappy impatient market awaiting election results and so policy direction. After all that this is where the price has ended up. 1.5p has held.

Now we face the prospect of multiple news updates over the next 3-4 months that can demonstrate (even before the official word comes) that the $155m NPV for their project will rise. In addition, we may also get wind of the fact that the costs for the project will fall.

That's the set-up. It doesn't need to be any more complicated than that. Election noise will dissipate and at some point, the market will get its mojo back. The CMET CEO has shown an immediate desire to right this ship and I now expect him to keep that pattern going. First up is the drilling permit and then perhaps the journey north can begin.

Gamesa approached Invinity because they needed a tech that could handle wind power projects and lithium doesn't cut it.

They wanted a battery that could last as long as their kit so minimum of 20 years and handle multiple cycles per day without too much degradation. Mistral fits that requirement which is why it is so damn exciting for those that have studied the industry.

It's a development JV effectively paid for by Gamesa with wind projects in mind.

Each party is able to sell Mistral through their own sales channels. Invinity has retained certain IP which means they have to be contracted to supply those elements of the battery for any Gamesa sale. Invinity sales are completely independent of Gamesa.

I would suggest tuning in for the Invinity investor meet presentation later today. It is always an informative session that dives into the tech front end.

I have a load of questions I would like answered.

Invinity is the only non-lithium tier 1 energy storage provider on BNEF Bloombergs 2024 list. Plus, Mistral is set to be the lowest-cost, long-duration battery on the market. Just as governments and the customer base seek non-lithium long duration battery options due to changing application demand and fears over thermal runway especially in built up areas.

Mistral is being launched at just the right time.

Presentation starts at 3pm UK time I believe.

https://www.energy-storage.news/bloombergnef-notes-uptick-in-china-based-bess-providers-as-it-launches-tier-1-list/

That's a fair post Legalwolf.

I wouldn't call it mixed messaging but more a case of keeping all options open whilst sending a clear message out that a partner is not required to progress this project or even get it into production. It's called strengthening your bargaining position as much as possible by showing no weakness.

I am sure he knows suitors will inevitably come calling again eespecially if they can push the grade even higher. tonnage definitely helps too. The highest grade mineral sand project in the world likely cannot stay independent forever. So it's about how you get taken out and so far I like the come out guns blazing response to the Sheffield disappointment.

My only criticism would be he should have known how good a project he had before he began the process with Sheffield as opposed to finding out as he was delivering the JV. But at this sort of valuation that doesn't matter right now because there is a very good return to be made from this level even with that knowledge in tow.

The recording is now available and I have put together some key quotes around the initial phase of work for the new COO and the drill programme.

Final Sri Lankan government approval receipt "hopefully this week." Drilling is key to the new strategy to improve the attractiveness of the project through increased NPV. So I would expect the same keenness we have seen in the last few days to continue.

Note also the drilling programme is already fully designed so there shouldn't be any need for further work once the permit arrives. But let's see.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1808473520042610731

Here is a more readable thread on what I said earlier for those who may be interested.

All to play for here and no concerns over funding for at least 12 months. A lot can be achieved in that time.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1808461161391624281

Sorry, the other important point was that they have had new approaches since Sheffield backed out. CEO said won't entertain them until something concrete and worthwhile is put on the table.

Happy to develop the asset on their own and add NPV to improve the attractiveness of the project. NPV updates to be instigated as and when enough new information can be fed into the calculations. talked about this being in the next 6 months but a good feel for the upgrades will be felt before this.

My gut says they will still partner and will use their time now to push the value of the project up whilst moving it closer t FID. Sheffield still at the table but as Greg said "may miss out" t someone else (paraphrasing as I couldn't write the exact quote down).

Plenty of value to be had here in the coming months once the dust settles and progress gets under way.

I thought Greg handled the update and the Q&A very well and was as straight up as one could hope for on all questions posed. I need to listen to the recording again for the exact wording because I couldn't write it all down fast enough.

They are waiting on the last piece of paper for the drilling to commence. Greg spke to the governme nt representative just before the meeting and from that said t could be as soon as this week but of course not guaranteed. But it should start very soon. Great.

The new COO is on holiday for the next couple of weeks. Then he heads over to spend a few weeks with the CMET team and review the cost plan before starting the process of negotiating vendor finance deals etc. When asked Greg also said that his experience in such deals

Yes, drill results could take up to 3-6 months but at the same time a lot of visual results can be reported along the way. Also planning to drill down to bedrock at 10m which is below the water table and more inland in some dune areas.

Very confident won't need the original $37m CAPEX and will still be cash flow positive anyway. He said in 2-3 months the numbers around this could be out to the market.

Greg stated he is keen to buy more shares in the market. So watch this space.

There's much more but they were the important milestones for me.

Those with less patience or who believed there would be some big announcement today clearly have jumped off. I am staying. The next 2-3 months promises to be very busy.

Most important the drilling start is almost there and not waiting on the new COO. Cost plan timelines as per the communication in yesterday's Crux interview. Plenty of money in the bank and the CEO wants to buy shares.

Happy to wait and review again around October.

You missed the fact that he said that Segilola is current producing between 2,000 and 2,100 oz per week. That puts quarterly production at up to 27,000 oz.

That is significant news because it means that they should be hitting the lowest end of their cost guidance of $1,100/oz.

by my maths that equates to c. $2.5m of cash flows per week. THX is ridiculously cheap right now.

Morning all,

I feel much more confident about CMET's prospects after yesterday's appointment. The pullback today looks to be investors chasing the next big buck. It would be good to gain some understanding as to when the drilling will commence and how realistic the 6-8 week timeline is for the cost plan. That would be my starter for 10.

Start to pull that sort of detail together and then a more sustained rise in the SP (minus the chasers) can perhaps begin.

It will be interesting to see where CMET settles today because it was undoubtedly a positive RNS.

It is also a sign of what can be achieved once other elements of the plan are delivered.

I appreciate a true ramping crew has now turned up so I will tread carefully. But even with this rise the company is still only worth £7.4m with £2.2m in cash. That's how low it fell.

It may be that the new guy will want to check the drilling programme targets etc. So its start may not come straight away but it is now definitely coming because this guy wasn't hired to just guard the site.

Release the wolves!

Sorry that should have read

The market doesn't care about financing yet...

See what a bit of positive news does for the share price. The market doesn't care about financing it cares about tangible progress and the unlocking of value.

$155m NPV with further drilling anticipated to improve this vs. an $8m MC was never going to stick if they could deliver the above. This is only step one but the appointment of competent management should not be underestimated.

He's loaded up with the right experience.

Yes, he may well be there. If so it'll be interesting to see how much knowledge of the project he has if any yet.

If you listen to the interview it was said that they were continuing to speak to the person(s) identified for the JV with Sheffield. They also said the fact that said person(s) were still interested was a testament to the quality of the project.

The proof is always in the pudding and the dessert just got served.

The CMET CEO is starting to step up here. This looks like a quality appointment and comes with performance-based options at 3.22p.

The bottom should now be in here.

Now let's go drilling.

@Legalwolf

I agree with your comments about the CEO being casual in his recent interviews but I also give him some slack because I have witnessed this Australian approach before. It is not uncommon for mining executives there to approach mining projects in a much more matter-of-fact get the job done sort of way. But he is playing to a UK audience.

I also see some mileage in your keeping the seat warm for Sheffield statement but would that cost me money at these levels? Especially if in the meantime the resource is proven to be bigger and higher grade + they secure the debt finance as well. It would certainly improve their bargaining position. So that's not a negative for me.

I stand by what I said. Start pumping out high-grade drill results. Sign up an experienced manager. Deliver a revised and perhaps lower-cost plan and we kiss goodbye to 1.6p. Because even with a discount for the future equity required the SP has plenty of room to move into before we get there.