Member Info for BigBiteNow

In my humble opinion, the worst thing that any investor can do is convince themselves that the market they see today will always be so. Be it for better or for worse things always change.

Post Sheffield pulling out CMET was always going to require an equity portion to get to first production. But before they get to that point they have a significant number of value/de-risking milestones that they can deliver over the next 12 months or so. The financial markets will go through much change during that time and opportunity will come CMET's way.

The idea that these milestones will all be ignored because the CEO pointed out what everyone already should have known is for me ludicrous.

As for the CEO, he has so far cost me a significant paper loss and so has work to do to win me fully over. But from what I see he has only been in the job 18 months and in that time very nearly landed a JV that would have re-rated the stock. The loss of that JV is not his fault but the unfortunate loss of grades at Sheffield's Thunderbird project which has placed their finances under too much stress.

Chasing such a deal with one of the most prominent persons in mineral sand extraction in what is a tough market for finance, absolutely made sense. To criticise that but ignore the macro climate shows a lack of understanding of the market we have seen in play since interest rates began to rise.

This is a poor market and CMET is not alone in being cashed up to deliver significant progress but all stocks in such positions will have their time in the sun once more when the market eventually turns.

Some may call me a ramper for pointing these things out but I am merely trying to apply logic. Should I really be cutting my losses at this stage when the share price has baked in every piece of possible bad news but the BOD is being proactive and demonstrating an ability to get on the front foot once more and has the cash to do so? No, I should not. I should be patient and see how the next 2-3 months plays out first.

I am still hurting from the hit I took here but I refuse to allow that hurt or that of others to cloud my judgement and make me to do something stupid. It is still very early days in the recovery process and patience is required as the drilling and cost plans are executed but there is a clear path to a decent share price rise and I intend to be around when it happens.

The exploration budget burden is much lighter than I expected but it still offers the chance of a significant impact in terms of tonnage and more importantly grade. So that's win/win for me in terms of value accretive work vs. protecting their cash run.

Just need to see it starting but in the interview when talking about the cost plan update over the next 6-8 weeks said "in the meantime, the drilling should be ticking along."

So it should be reasonably close.

I don't kid myself that CMET has much work to do to right their ship but this is a very good and proactive start and we have to start somewhere. Plus I keep looking at that MC vs. the intended progress to come and it simply does not fit.

Morning all,

Here's my first pass at the content of the interview which I thought was very good and starts the process of getting CMET back on the front foot.

"If Sheffield Resources had never happened then that plan with the current known world-leading resource and £2.2m cash in the bank makes the £5.35m MC look very light indeed.

The market is still licking its wounds but that will change as progress takes over here."

There is a fairly comfortable path to a double up here. That would still be below my average but 100% is 100% wherever the start position may be.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1808030760680489389

I think the valuation here is just nuts.

The Middle East contract spiked the SP to 4p a share. In the 15th April investor call EXR said that they hoped "to release regular updates with regard to new client wins similar in nature to the one earlier this year in the Middle East."

That being the seven-figure contract win in February.

Cash burn reported in April at between €300,000 - €350,000 per month. As of today, that means an enterprise value for the business of just £1m. Absolutely nuts valuation for a business that is cashed up until the end of 2025 and is growing its revenues once more.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1807705744390640085

The presentation and possible plan of attack have given the market a focus point. The bottom looks to be in here.

Impressive volume today.

I perhaps rushed that post due to having other things I need to do.

My point is that Mistral is going to be a world leading battery at world leading prices that is backed by one of the largest wind farm developers in the world.

The battery has been designed with wind farms in mind because it can deliver multiple cycles over a 24 hour period. Something lithium cannot do any where near as well.

I find it incredible that Invinity is receiving so little love so close to what is a major shift in its business IP.

It is either a lack of understanding or trust or simply that everyone is waiting for the overhang of shares to clear. But mark my words this is a very big investment story right here whether the market gets it yet or not.

2/2

It has been a long journey to get to this position. One a great many investors including myself did not envisage taking so long. But we are right on the edge of this all coming together in a big way. I would encourage investors who have decided to stay to get behind their investment and give the Invinity team a chance to deliver on what should be a really exciting period for both them and the renewables industry.

1/2

A recurring theme in this current market is investors using the past to beat current management or progress (including future developments) over the head.

Invinity is attempting to disrupt a battery storage market that is dominated by lithium. In doing so they have had to develop a new form of battery with a partner and that has taken time and money.

In the meantime, they have had to drive the sales of their VS3 battery which yes has struggled to deliver a profit margin. Still, they have had some very solid success on that front and built the reputation of the business such that they are now the only tier 1 non-lithium battery manufacturer recognised by BNEF Bloomberg. That is but one of many attributes they have built up during the time it has taken to deliver Mistral to market.

Furthermore, whilst they have bene developing Mistral the financial markets have taken a major downturn. Regulatory attitudes have had to be challenged to give them a place in the market and electricity prices have tanked placing returns on such projects under pressure. Hence hwy they have had to be innovative with their approach to the UK LDES market and invest directly in the front end batteries. In doing so they demonstrate Mistral's capabilities whilst in paraellel the UK government introduces a cap and floor price to support non-lithium LDES.

This has never been about the quality or performance of their technology but access to the markets and customer base to demonstrate its many advantages over lithium for a number of sort after applications.

With the latest round of funding Invinity finally has the capital to increase its production base (already commenced in the UK) and working capital to deiver the sorts of projects that can make a difference to its standing in the market but also its bottom line.

Investors highlight their inability to make a gross margin on projects to date whilst conveniently forgetting that Mistal is a game-changer not just for them but renewable energy full stop.

When Invinity begins delivering +200MWh projects at c. $400,000 per MWh then a 5-8% gross margin (example only) suddenly becomes much more significant. This is purely an example.

When Invinity starts signing off such projects with suppliers their costs to produce will reduce. Said suppliers will give better pricing. Materials will cost less. etc etc and make no mistake here those sorts of projects are coming because Invinity has already signalled they have projects up to 500MWh in size in the pipeline.

A little more patience is required but Mistral will launch this year and larger more impactful projects will be closed out.

I expect to hear more about it all in next week's webinar call.

The 0.48BCF of 2C resources is of course on top of the similar 2U resources.

Also, the 47p a share is in addition to the current c. 20.5p a share. So c. 67.5p all in.

I am not saying it gets there I am merely offering a comparison of two similar set-ups.

The churn continues.

I get the feeling that the next update is going to land just in time to clear this profit taking process.

As posted on Twitter HE1 with similar 2U resources whilst in its lead into drilling period never traded below a £35m MC and even then that was driven by uncertainty over the drilling contractor. One working day later they confirmed they had bought their own rig and it then peaked at +£83m.

HEX in comparison has 0.48 bcf of 2C resources. Better more knowledgeable and trustworthy management. Better jurisdiction. Far lower CAPEX costs. Far lower drilling costs. More money in the bank post drills.

Unless the market's attitude has changed massively towards helium exploration plays HEX has a far better set-up and is today still trading £10m below that lowest HE1 valuation point. equivalent to c. 8p a share. If it were to test that upper HE1 valuation level then we are talking c. 47p a share.

The reality may end up being somewhere in between but I certainly struggle seeing it being where we sit at today.

No two investments or set ups are ever the same but the above (as a minimum) tells me that when HEX clears the profit takers and/or delivers the next progress milestone then the percentages say it heads much higher.

Right now this zone is proving to be the station where the passengers get on and off.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1805928949148492083

Stepping out in front of shareholders after such a disappointing update and subsequent massive drop in share price talks balls. They could easily have gone to ground for a few months.

So they have my respect for that at least. I would expect if they have their heads screwed on correctly they won't come empty handed. Hence my earlier comments around drilling etc.

As suspected the BOD are reacting quickly here which means they must have a plan to communicate. Perhaps drilling commencement will be announced prior to the meeting.

We find out next Wednesday but this is why I decided to hold.

I think there has been some negativity towards the VR space of late due to falling sales of VR sets but from what I have read this is likely to change in the next two years.

But falling VR headset sales does not mean falling content revenue sales. According to the below insight its market is running at $3.1BN in 2024 and is set to rise to $20.54BN by 2029.

At expected sales of c. €5.5m in 2024 EXR could grow itself 20x and still barely scratch the surface. So I think it's a case of misunderstanding driven by headlines. But any argument on market discounts due to the above "falling sales" doesn't even get off the ground at this sort of EXR MC level.

https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/vr-content-creation-services-market

Morning all,

Having bought a few EXR some time ago and basically parked them I noted the Octopus Investments purchase and it prompted me to revisit my notes and the info in the market.

Here's an initial thread of what I produced. The business isn't doing a lot of things right and is demonstrating growth whilst strengthening its executive reach. The appointment of Karthik Manimozhi was particularly interesting given his credentials which far outstrip the progress EXR has made to date.

The only thing I ca see that isn't performing is the share price which is always a strong set up.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1806581015822917682

It wasn't a DFS it was a PFS. Rightly or wrongly that is what Sheffield and CMET were going to produce. The RNS wording indicated to me that this may now fall away which is why I want to see the next update and the plan.

A PFS is not expensive but yes absolutely a question that needs to be answered if that is the chosen route.

I am not trying to answer all the questions today. What I am trying to establish is fair value as things stand and for all the doom and gloom it's not 1.7p. When share prices drop hard then all the bad angles come out. Yes, many things can go wrong and reputations need to be recovered but we are still only at a £6m MC with £2.3m of cash on hand. Given the fact they are able to move the project forward that MC feels too harsh for me even when taking into account every negative that can be thrown at it.

Financers won't take the undefined resource into account when offering terms. They will want to see it in a JORC. That it has been properly assessed and the risk associated with its extraction reduced as far as possible. Hence why JORCs are produced.

If we were just talking about more resources at the same grade I would agree but we are potentially talking 30% which is a +70% improvement and would make CMET's mineral sands project by far the highest grade project in the world. That attracts interest and gives CMET more of a chance of getting the finance to get it built.

Agreed but if you are demonstrating much stronger economics, particularly front end because you have identified a 30% high-grade zone or better rather than 17.6% then your path to finance surely must ease.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1806325697947812249

That's an important point here. Sheffield walked because of problems with their other mine and not because they saw an issue with the CMET asset.

One day they may well come back.

I remain cautious Airborne and indeed disappointed with the way the Sheffield deal has played out. But I also recognise that CMET potentially has a very strong asset (which Sheffield would have closed the deal on if their Thunderbird mine was ramping up more efficiently), plenty of cash and positive news flow ahead. Those are tangible things which prevent any need to capitulate at such low prices.

One has to take the emotion out of it and try to think clearly. Yes, the CEO was parading around like the project was practically built and that is a concern. But at the same time, Sheffield did everything to give him and indeed us the belief that they were on board. So some slack is called for and the messaging (actions speak far louder) is that they are being proactive and looking to push forward and create more value for shareholders in the ground. Right now I'm willing to wait and see how that develops.