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In the last interview with Zak Mir the CEO stated (4mins 8sec) that they had already mobilised a sonic rig and rented an air core rig for an already decided upon "big programme that we are very excited about."

This indicates that we shouldn't be waiting too long for the update on the drilling start.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRm9KsBmTe8

There is some excellent churn going on at these sorts of levels which bodes well as we approach the Q3 start.

PS But its only my opinion.

The fact that they are going to announce their plans for drilling and project progression is in my opinion supportive for the SP at these sorts of levels.

Well if you are going to say 1p then why not just say 0.1p or 0p.

The last time the SP hit 1p in mid 2023 there were 275m shares in issue and they had around £900k in the bank placing the value of the project assets at c. £1.8m. If we drop to 1p this time around then the total value would be £3.45m with c. £2.3m in the bank.

However, the main driver of that 1p valuation back then was the churn from 900k of fundraiser and the fact the licenses were suspended.

Jump forward to today and said licenses are back in place and cash on hand is much stronger such that drilling to expand the resource and so the NPV can shortly get underway.

Anything is possible but just from those few examples alone, it is hard to justify 1p other than because we have been there before so why not again? But it has little fundamental value.

I vote we go higher.

Perhaps we have reached peak capitulation. Talk of 1p a share and large dumps which could well be the core instigator of the drop. I won't speculate on why these sales have appeared.

I will wait for the project update before deciding what to do with my holding.

World's highest-grade minerals sand project with cash resources for the next 12 months and about to drill to expand the resource both in size and grade. The drop is well overdone.

Looking at this Sheffield Resources report from yesterday there is every chance that Sheffield could be back at the table in 6-9 months. Will I still be here possibly not but neither do I believe that avenue is dead.

Bruce Griffin in yesterday's RNS,

"Sheffield's decision has nothing to do with the Project. We remain a supportive shareholder in Capital Metals and are hopeful with time that we can assist with and participate in the growth of the Project."

In the meantime, drill out the resource and improve the NPV. Perhaps all is not lost after all.

https://www.sheffieldresources.com.au/site/pdf/cd53775e-8bd3-4a64-a773-aedecba7e06e/Increased-Production-and-Shipments-at-Thunderbird.pdf

Oak Securities interview on HEX for those who haven't seen it yet. There is some intelligent explanation of why the Rudyard acquisition is so positive and why being in Montana assists with the belief that they can deliver on their timelines and costs.

https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/interview-with-dr-zac-phillips-of-oak-securities-8c60d1d/

The lack of appreciation for where Invinity is now poised to arrive at with the capital and relationships to finally deliver it, is quite unbelievable.

Be clear here they have £2.5m (pounds) in the bank no dollars. So much stronger than perhaps the wider world appreciates.

Based on my figures earlier CMET is now running an EV of just £4.6m. Given the fact they don't require funding for the foreseeable future and they have a drill programme etc coming up it looks well overdone already but then this market is unforgiving.

Morning everyone,

I am very disappointed with the way this deal has panned out but more so Sheffield Resources. To commit to completing a deal in mid-May they must have known the situation and potential pending risks at their Thunderbird mine. So to then have to cancel a month or so later demonstrates they aren't very well switched on. In doing so they have shafted CMET shareholders and wasted c. 3 months of their time. Time that could have been spent progressing the project.

That aside I am reading here that CMET only has £1m in the bank but my understanding is that post the subscription cash was running at £2.5m in mid-March. Cash burn in between should have been fairly minimal (loss for the last half year to Sept was c. $400,000 = £320,000).

From the March RNS,

"In the context of our current market capitalisation (being approximately £10 million), with a post-Subscription cash balance of approximately £2.5 million."

Put simply that tells me they have c. £2.3m still in the bank making the EV at 2.3p around £5.6m which is very low given the quality of the project. Be it that we are dealing with the aftermath of the market's immediate reaction to the deal falling through.

It was this cash level and debt-free status that encouraged me to take a stake prior to the closure of what looked like a certain deal. So on that basis, they should be able to drill and progress other finance options (jury out on this until the details have been seen) without the need to raise funds for working capital until next year.

This statement on £2.5m cash on hand is supported by the fact that CMET raised £1.25m in December through subscription and placing + £1.25m from Sheffield. Plus they had cash on hand of $500,000 at the end of Sept.

So the numbers work unless someone knows something additional that I haven't seen yet.

This investment certainly isn't what I thought I was buying into but nor is it a dead duck. Not sure I would stick around for the end game anymore but at the same time 2.3p looks too cheap given their cash position and ability to progress the project under their own steam. Especially when I consider they are now going after higher-grade resources which through size and grade increases should substantially increase the NPV for the project.

Thoughts welcome.

This should be the start of a sustained period of newsflow from Thor. The SP has consolidated its gains from early March. Rather remarkably the gold price is acting as a headwind simply because it too is consolidating. But it's still north of $2,300/oz and out of all my gold plays Thor is arguably the best beneficiary but with the least recognition.

Investors can play all the games they want to but fact is these guys are cashed up for a solid run at multiple new large Pharma contracts. 2-3 additional contracts including household names and this flies much higher. The next one can land at anytime. But your ticket and enjoy the run or sit around telling everyone how bad a bet this is it won’t change that fact.

What is the point of saying they have had 14 years to achieve something when the new BOD has only been in place for 9 months? What has the previous 13.25 years got to do with them?

Also, Blue Mountain is as viable an option as any in the ECR portfolio, especially with a pilot plant available on-site and a willing land owner providing labour and equipment. But they can't drill it until it's been trenched. It's called process. As they conduct said process they are keeping investors informed and demonstrating that their efforts are starting to pay off. Again nothing wrong with that either.

Other firms would simply announce trenching and then go quiet for 6-8 weeks. Leaving investors in the dark.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

@Adw198,

AGL was seeking to raise £8.5m. The open offer is never counted as part of any budget requirements. In the end, they raised c. £9.25m. So more than required.

Revenues certainly need some work but they are running at around £2.6m of the £6.45m forecast by the broker. So they would be looking to book a further £3.85m by YE. How doable this is is uncertain and you are correct to highlight this.

However, even if they fall £2m short does it really change anything? That would equate to c. £1.25m in reduced cash flows which when offset against the above c. £750k equates to around 1.5 months cashburn based on H2 2023 or if you are other contributors here c. 12 days (they can't have it both ways).

It is also worth noting that AGL stated that their cash runway now runs until the end of 2025. This is why I said they have a minimum 12 months run now with or without substantial revenue uplift.

So in reality it's a nothing burger. Especially when the real share price mover here is pharma expansion through more or repeat deals. There we were told,

"ANGLE anticipates that further new pharma services contracts will continue to be signed throughout 2024."

It is these deals that have me interested because they demonstrate market interest nd take up and open up the possibility of a takeover down the road.

The 2023 accounts clearly state YE cash at £16.218m.

@TwoGood2Die,

An accounting loss isn't their actual cash burn.

Plus it was a comprehensive loss of £19m, not £22m.

The cash flow segment of the accounts is what should be analysed.

@HarChris,

I haven't seen any broker forecasts beyond 2024.

Right now AGL is all about widening its large pharma reach, bedding in its distributor network and completing the early deals with its existing clients including Eisai/AZ to deliver large follow-on work.

I certainly expect more deals to land as H2 progresses.

I really don't understand what this £2m cash burn per month is being built from other than a desire to paint a bad picture.

In 2023 AGL actual FY cash burn was c. £16m. That's equal to £1.33m cash burn per month.

But the YE end cash position was £16.2m vs. £22.2m on 30th June indicating a cash burn in H2 2023 of c. £6m which is £500,000 per month.

In addition further cost savings are expected in 2024.

"The streamlining is expected to deliver cost savings of c. £3 million per annum in 2024 resulting in the extension of the cash runway into Q2 2025."

They are worth up to £250k per month. They may not achieve all of them, but any further improvement is a positive for that cash burn.

Then we have increasing revenues. H2 cash burn was achieved against just £1m in revenues. So far this year revenues are reportedly running at c. £2.6m with more to come. Again they may not reach their £6.45m goal but they are already ahead of last year with c. 6 months more still to go.

This will also help lower monthly cash burn.

Nowhere is any of the available information is there evidence that AGL is burning anywhere near £2m a month.

YE cash was £16.2m + £8.77m raised = c. £25m minus placing costs.

On the above evidence, AGL has at least 12 months before any questions need to be raised over further funding and it is fair to expect that multiple deals will be landing in that timescale.