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You'll have to direct me to the Largo chart that has spiked 50% because the ones I am looking at don't show that.

I went through the whole China rebar saga with BMN back in 2018. The price spiked on the belief that the regulations would be immediately implemented. But they weren't. This latest change looks more committed in that the regs are not advice but a standard. So yes there could be an effect there.

However, the key difference this time around is the state of the Chinese steel industry. It is heavily over-capitalised and in need of downsizing. Also, demand in China is subdued.

In terms of IES, I believe they have some innovative ways of gaining a secondary supply of vanadium in the pipeline which we have yet to hear about. Their relationship with US Vanadium could also prove key. With the levels of vanadium supply they are going to be calling for they must be working on a great many avenues to ensure future supply because their demand alone could well outstrip any China effect which is a crazy thought when one thinks about it.

One must also not lose sight of the rental option which we may well see implemented in the upcoming UK first battery sales where IES will own a stake in the asset. A large-scale rollout of rented vanadium removes the pricing spike issue from the table.

So for me, it is one to keep an eye on but it shouldn't hurt IES front end if indeed at all.

Thank you for taking the time to post your notes grsshaw.

Once the contracts start coming through this could be quite the investment story.

When you say "nor made it obvious regarding what would happen if Energean did not take on the whole lixus operatorship" do you mean in the presentation?

If so then this was clearly explained with further farm out and strategic finance mentioned. They also said they had two plans ready. One for if Energean takes up the option and one if they do not.

Apologies that should read "I assume is tied to the big drop in early 2023" and not 2022.

Firstly, I think you are getting your updates mixed up. The "sp falling from 40p to 10p" assumes is tied to the big drop in early 2022 which wasn't so much about revenue misses but a major restructuring of the business to save costs. be it they had failed to deliver initial expected revenues from the FDA clearance.

At the last business update that caused an SP drop in November 2023, they communicated an 800k shortfall vs. 3m forecast. So a c. 25% shortfall. But this communication came with the news that they were closing their US labs which I am clear was the main driver of the share price drop immediately afterwards.

That share price drop was from 13p to 9.25p. So not a 30p drop.

The difference this time around is they have won large pharma contracts and all the cost-cutting exercises are now done.

In November these were very much in play and large pharma contracts remained an elusive goal.

Does this mean that a shortfall in the market forecast can't have a negative impact? No, but it must be placed in context to the other achievements and of course how big a miss it really is. Even after that November miss and the communication around the US labs closing AGL still managed to regain all its losses by 5th December. Why? because new products were released.

This time around we not only have the prospect of new large pharma contracts but also the confidence that AGL can close them and their impact potential is much greater than a new product launch. Furthermore, we have at least 3 large pharma contracts underway any of which can deliver a next-stage deal. Whilst such deals don't guarantee breakeven they will undoubtedly drive market interest because they prove that the business case is working.

As for the remaining revenues required in H2 well we must not forget the distributor network. During H1 it has not only grown but also further bedded in. Des that guarantee they will hit the market forecast? No, it does not but it is an avenue that perhaps shouldn't be underestimated. Especially if it can be combined with further large pharma contracts.

I'll compound the argument for you.

In H2 2024 AGL will at the very least be carrying out work against the Eisai contract, the Bioview contract and two AZ contracts. As well as other ongoing works with the likes of Crescendo Biologics.

Note also that the two AZ contracts were only signed in April and May this year. With prep work and start-up, they are likely only truly going to get going in H2 2024

In addition, AGL has a contract with Artios Pharma. From the 5th of June RNS,

" Phase I clinical trial expected to commence shortly and complete towards the end of 2024."

So again H2 2024 works.

It really isn't that difficult to believe that c. £1.3m of revenues were already secured and therefore could be forecast as of early June.

Let's be clear here AGL would not be allowed to make that statement in a document attached to proposed funding without the 40% being tied to actual market expectations for revenues in FY24.

This means they can't say we have 40% of the market's expectations for FY24 contracted but in reality, some of it will be received in FY25. That would be extremely misleading and the nomad/broker would pull them on it.

I don't need to adjust any expectations. You haven't read what I said properly. There is unnecessary scaremongering going on here based on agendas.

They don't have £5m to find in 5 months because they clearly stated on 5th June that "a total of c.40% of FY24 market expectations for revenue1 already contracted year to date."

That is based on a broker forecast of £6.45m for FY24.

Meaning that whilst they may only have done c. £1.3m in H1 2024 they have already secured that same amount for H2 by 5th June.

This is why I wrote that "they still have around £3.85m to find" as of 5th June 2024 which is near as damn it a full 7 months before YE.

It isn't rocket science and denying that it was said or attempting to manipulate it doesn't change it.

I would add that I do accept that companies should do what they say they are going to but the key is delivery and large pharma contracts and relationship expansion trumps revenues for now. So long as they have enough cash to deliver these milestones which they now clearly do thanks to a solid raise which deserves more credit.

They haven't missed the forecast yet.

I was merely pointing out that the worst-case scenario would still see them double revenues, reduce cash burns and have little effect on their cash run timelines.

This company has around a year to deliver. During that time there is every chance that they deliver a number of further large pharma contracts and the possibility that the first 3 contracts secured earlier this year are turned into larger awards/partnerships. Any of those events can deliver a large re-rate. All the talk of possibly missing revenue targets is a red herring with those sorts of possibilities behind them. The recent raise took care of that.

I certainly won't defend all the BOD's actions but I will recognise the state of the market these last 18 months and the effect that has had on companies like CHAR to operate and get things done.

All reasons need to be considered when assessing their performance. But as I said earlier its water under the bridge now. Energen is about to take us drilling for the big one.

"with a total of c.40% of FY24 market expectations for revenue1 already contracted year to date."

So yes they have c. £5m to achieve in H2 but they have already secured c. £1.3m of said £5m and that was my point. meaning they have already matched H1 2024 outcomes and they had 7 months still to go to find the rest.

Sorry daily production would be up c. 43% vs the current plan.

In terms of Anchois, I don't see how they could have moved things along any quicker. Energean is leading the development and they wanted a 3rd development well and a shot at 1tcf. In doing so we have a shot at daily production increasing by nearly 33% a day with limited further CAPEX needed to unlock it.

Drill rigs need to be booked and slots waited for but we are nearly there. Anchois East has multiple objectives but is very capable of demonstrating that this development is much bigger than 1tcf. My view is if the drill gets us anywhere near that figure then Energean will take their option. That will trigger $50m of cash for CHAR on top of the $15m they get at FID and will have been worth the wait.

Also, it was clear from yesterday's presentation that Char management has been working up plans in case Energean doesn't take up their option. Further partnering and/or strategic non-dilutive finance were mentioned. the market hasn't respected that part of the update yet.

Despite the long wait to get to this point, Char is now in a really good place and the next few months should be really exciting.

Sellers or not somebody certainly looks to be buying in quantities of late.

Why do you think they have £5m in revenues to find for H2 when they clearly stated they already have achieved £2.6m as of early June? Meaning they still have around £3.85m to find.

Even if they do end up being short by a couple of million what does it truly matter? At 70% gross margin we are talking at best £1.4m in lost cash which at a stretch is 2 months of expenses. On the other side of the coin, they would have grown revenues by nearly 100%. be it from a small base.

But it is worth reminding everyone that the management team stated at the AGM that they felt they could hit market guidance. So let's see.

It’s actually around $490m (£380m) in NPV between the two projects.

At 24p HEX (minus c. £3m cash on hand) is valued at around 6.8% of its full NPV. Considering 40% of that NPV is contingent resources that is simply way too low.

Agreed.

As I just said on Twitter.

In terms of excitement #HEX has it all.

A shot at +$500m of NPV with a management team that so far is getting everything right.

Also confirmed that they have used less than half of the monies raised to fund these two drills meaning that upon success they have plenty of cash to expedite planning and studies associated with getting to first production by late 2025.

As far as I can see the only thing holding this back from a big re-rate is a seller overhang. But there's plenty of news coming to help see them off. The let's see where she goes.

Looking at the programme slide in the HEX presentation today rig mobilisation will be in late July.

Drilling will then be very early August. By the looks of the programme, it is saying the first week. So really not very long to go.

"7 bites of the apple" between Ingomar and Rudyard at a drill cost of just $4.1m and Rudyard has proven helium resources.

Also, talk of a jam-packed period of newsflow. Lots to like about this.

Then we shall reconvene this discussion around 24th August and find out.