Member Info for BigBiteNow

I have added this two-part thread, including a blown up diagram from page 4 of the April presentation.

There we can see that they expected to hit the top of the Cambrian strata at c. 7,410ft which should also have been the start of the flathead formation (the key zone for this drill) but encountered it at 6,815ft. Nearly 600ft earlier but still measured "Elevated helium readings were encountered throughout the Cambrian strata from 6,815ft" all the way to 8,030ft and they didn't reach the bottom.

Hitting it earlier but only having a limited section of elevated shows wouldn't be news. But hitting it earlier, expecting the top of the flathead and then running twice the length without finding the bottom is worth talking about.

https://wp-helix-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/04/Helix-Exploration-Presentation-April-2024.pdf

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1831591673970708956

Morning all,

This is a thread I put together yesterday after pondering the information and wording shared by HEX on the Clink #1 drill.

I would welcome thoughts from anyone with prior experience of such drills. I am particularly keen to expand upon the wording around the size of the area where elevated shows were found in the Cambrian zone because when coupled with no basement being found it feels (maybe wishful thinking by me) like this drill result could potentially be much bigger than expected.

#HEX's Clink #1 primary target was the flathead formation commencing at approx 7,410ft.

Pre-Cambrian was then to be hit around 7,750ft with a target depth of 8,030 ft.

So up to 620 ft of expected gas bearing zone pre-drill.

But then in the RNS dated 28th Aug we were told that,

"Elevated helium readings were encountered throughout the Cambrian strata from 6,815ft (2,075m) to TD, which includes the Clink #1 primary target - the Flathead formation."

That's a total of 1,215ft. Nearly double. (Note they said throughout and at various intervals).

Then yesterday HEX stated that Clink #1 stated that,

"significant shows of helium and hydrogen gas from the Amsden, Charles, and Flathead sandstone formations have been encountered."

Leading Bo Sears to say,

"We are very pleased with the results from the well to date. The mud log revealed reservoir quality strata with positive helium results."

+ hydrogen at readings in mud that the highest Mr Sears has seen in his career.

+HEX is fully funded to repair the well and drill Rudyard which already has proven commercial grades and flow rates in the same structure as HEX is drilling.

What am I missing here?

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1831344376452186432

@HarChris,

"Pursuant to the terms of the Option Agreement, IMC's 30% interest will be a "free carry" interest until such time as the Company announces probable reserves on the Douta Gold Project (the "Free Carry Period"). Following the Free Carry Period, IMC must either elect to sell its 30% interest to African Star at a purchase price determined by an independent valuator commissioned by African Star or fund its 30% share of the Property Company's expenses."

At the BFS stage, the price whilst likely higher than previously expected won't be too silly and the value of the gain of 30% more of the project should well outstrip that cost. The updated resource could well be the pivotal point. One other thing to bear in mind is the refocus on oxides and the new licenses which as far as I understand were acquired under different agreements with different parties.

https://thorexpl.com/news/thor-announces-new-private-placement-1-1-1-1-1-1-1/

$0.5BN if Energean takes up the option or $0.6Bn if they don't.

First stop is the foot wall at 170bcf carries a CoS of greater than 60%.

I also wouldn't underestimate Energean's need to diversify from Israel. They are one terrorist attack away from a big problem. That doesn't mean they will cut corners but nor should this fact be ignored when thinking about FID and indeed their option of 10% to et this project moving to production.

That's a rather pessimistic view but completely possible.

The development is fully planned for 105mmscfd from two wells. Energean has been involved fro c. 8 months already. The CAPEX uplift for this third well if successful was declared in the latest CHAR presentation which says it has been costed and at least in part catered for. This doesn't mean more work won't be needed post-drill to complete the final scheme to achieve FID. But to say its back to the drawing board is a bit drastic.

CHAR are confident of FID by YE. I think that's punchy but the first stop here is the well result and if it gets close to that 1Tcf then the asset CHAR holds substantially rises in value and the chances of Energean taking up their 10% or even a buyout grow. There is substantial value to be had from these levels prior to any FID decision.

Good to see Energean doubling down on its messaging around Anchois being a "core weighted asset" even before the Anchois 3 drill completes. says FID happens but I trust it will happen after a successful drill. Then let's see where CHAR's valuation sits.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1829040222069244082

All the drama about the auditor's resignation but when it comes to the resolution absolute silence.

I've added more at 13.6p this morning. Gold prices just put in another all-time daily high close and are heading to yet another all time weekly high finish. US CPI and PPI data could be important for near term pricing but at nearly the half way point in Q3 gold prices are averaging $2,403/oz for the quarter. That is c. $65/oz more than Q2 and currently rising.

Whichever way one looks at it THX is already set to have a bumper Q3. Throw in some positive underground drilling results from Segilola and today's price looks all the more ludicrous.

Scratch that now at £0.65m. Crazy but then this market is evil right now. Interims update may be telling.

"With the additional contracted revenue yet to be recognised and the strength of the pipeline, the Board remains confident in delivering against its expectations for the year."

They are certainly confident of a strong H2 so let's see. The business is currently carrying an EV of just c. £1.3m.

"as expected by chariot isn’t much better. this is the 100million scfd case."

No that is incorrect. If the drill comes out as expected then it will have hit the two low-risk additional drill zones which were indicated to deliver 150million scfd. Note the first of those two zones carries a CoS of c. 60%.

Better than expected could alter the development design but it would have to be a big difference. More likely it still delivers the same development size but extends its life and so increases the NPV.

Thanks, Oldtramp.

The more evidence you dig up, the more compelling EXR looks at 1.15p. A trading update is due in the next few days. Let's see where we after that.

Thanks oldtramp.

How do you know this was using the EngageXR tech?

That aside some very positive wording around the advantages of VR training and confidence in the expansion of its future usage.

"According to PWC, VR learners are 4 times faster to train than when in the classroom, 275% more confident to apply skills learned after training, 3.75 times more emotionally connected to content than classroom learners, and 4 times more focused than their e-learning peers."

Even if PWC is overstating it somewhat those numbers represent a significant difference making VR training and education an advantage that cannot be ignored.

It is also worth watching this Terry Perles Vanitec Report from 10th July 2024 (so current). He is from US Vanadium the US electrolyte supplier IES has an MOU with. They hinted in the last meeting (because I asked them) that this agreement would soon be more binding as IES pulls together their US supply chain to ensure local content requirements are met. It is important to appreciate that US vanadium produces its electrolyte from industrial waste streams. Invinity has also hinted heavily that this is the direction they want to head for their longer-term vanadium supply. Such a move would alleviate the need to compete with with steel demand.

Roughly 40% of world vanadium consumption goes into Chinese rebar. Demand has been falling since 2020 with demand down c. 20% between 2021 and 2023 alone. There is a strong argument to be had that Chinese steel demand peaked in 2020 and will never return to those levels again. This does not ensure that any change in regulation to grade 4 will be covered by this slack in demand but it is an important and considerable ingredient that must be considered.

More importantly, the VRFB industry is fully aware of the shortfall in vanadium supply vs future demand from VRFBs. It is this fundamental that is far more threatening to the VRFB industry than any temporary spike because of new rebars regs. With that in mind it is difficult to conclude that they have simply sat on their hands and hoped for the best. This is why Saudi Arabia deals (who are going big on recovering vanadium from spent oils) and the US Vanadium link are high on my agenda for upcoming news flow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynfBhv-_dW8

Here is a response I received from CMET's communication team today,

"Thanks for your email re Capital Metals. Site preparations for drilling are well underway, the aircore rig is being transported to site and all necessary external contractors and spares pretty much ready. You will know when the drill starts turning as the company expects to post photos and comment appropriately. Visual results should be fairly swift; however, assays could take until the next quarter to release."

I was very happy to read this. Let the climb back to a more sensible valuation commence.

From the recent strategic funding document.

"The Company plans to take a minority, passive equity stake (or purchase and rent back the electrolyte) in these projects, co-investing to enhance customer returns, whilst unlocking significant revenue for Invinity in the form of margin-generative product sales, helping the Company to establish a dominant position as a leading LDES provider both in the UK and globally and generate recurring cash inflows from a durable asset which could be sold and capital recycled at a later date."

This demonstrates that it is at least a consideration but bear in mind when vanadium prices are as low as they are right now there is much less incentive to rent the vanadium. But this discussion was around high vanadium prices and the fact that a solution does exist. I think judging its success when vanadium prices are stable is shortsighted. In addition, there simply haven't been enough VRFB projects going live over the last few years to test the case for rentals. But that is clearly now changing.

My only concern is complacency around pricing but it is more a thought than a concrete thesis at this time.

Yes, you have missed the fact they don't need any more funds at this time and they took what they need to get the next stage of contract wins/development over the line.

YE cash was c. £16m and they raised c. £9m after expenses.

Total = £25m

Actual cash burn last year was c. £15.8m which equates to £1.3m per month when revenues were running at £2.2m and 70% gross margin.

However, this included £0.7m in one-off charges for the US lab closure + in November AGL announced that said closure would save them £3m in costs per annum from 2024.

That reduces cash burn for 2024 down to c. £12m or £1m per month.

So in theory, £25m in cash can carry them through until the end of 2025 which is what they have been reporting.

Some commentators wish to highlight that a shortfall in revenue expectations will somehow dent this but as I have pointed out cash burn was based on just £2.2m in revenues. YTD revenues for 2024 are running ahead of last at c. £2.6m. Inevitably this will further improve as it was based on what was known in early June.

Yes, there is a possibility that the cost savings may not come through entirely as planned and other costs may have to rise due to commitments required for new contract wins. But that comes with more margin which more than counters said cost. However, what the above certainly makes clear to me is that AGL does indeed have "at least c. 12 months for them to deliver more without the need for further funding."

Yes, the same amount of vanadium has to be bought but it can be purchased by a separate 3rd party who holds it as an asset and then rents it to the customer for a much smaller fee. Said 3rd party continually buys the vanadium long term which in turn helps iron out any spikes/dips in prices.

Because the vanadium in the battery doesn't deteriorate during its usage (unlike lithium) 100% of the asset can be returned to the 3rd party when the VRFB reaches the end of its life. It can then be reused in another VRFB and the same process repeats. All of this helps deliver said 3rd party a business model that can deliver allow rental prices.

That is a very quick layman's version of it. Worth looking into for a more detailed idea.

For all of the negatives that exist for some with the management team, they have delivered two major pharma companies this year and a funding package that now guarantees investors at least c. 12 months for them to deliver more without the need for further funding.

In that period AGL has every chance of landing several new large pharma clients and moving to the next stage with any of those that are already on board.

That means multiple opportunities that can drive a much higher share price and give investors excellent returns from this level. One does not have to love the management team or marry the share to achieve that. All the negative angles and points scoring will not change it either.

Moreover, the next set of deals can compound the business case for the Parsortix system meaning less and less concern over profitability and more focus on the tech and potential suitors.

Investors can either take what is an excellent risk-reward opportunity or sit on the sidelines driving negativity and watching others gain. Personally, I see the same risk-reward that i saw in November and moved on but this time it could be much bigger because the SP isn't far off those lows but far more has already been achieved.

Whatever has come before (and yes I have been invested in CHAR on and off for years) there is no denying what is about to happen.

Investors can spend their time knocking the management team if they wish but they have delivered Energean and this appraisal drill which could well take this project to over 1tcf and give CHAR a $600m NPV for their 30% share. That is real and the market will react to that whatever has come before.

In addition, arguably after some errors in judgement, they have found a solution for the transitional power division which could see significant capital invested there within the next few months. The same goes for onshore be it that its impact on the SP will be limited for now.

I repeat what I said before. This has been an awful market for companies like CHAR to achieve their goals. I can criticise their choices and their reaction to a changing market but in doing so I would need to call out my slow reactions as areas of the market turned against me and I failed to react in good time. Are they the best management team in their field? No not by a long way. But did they just put up £800,000 of their own money in the recent placement? Yes, they did and the market has every right to respond positively to that as well.

The errors of the past will not matter when this drill gets going and the expected newsflow gets going over the next few months because the funding is now in place to see this out.