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What is the probability of some radical statment on 22nd? Currently the vacc program is for the old and vunerable. Once the over 50's are cleared through will there be a plan allowing 'family vaccs' for holidaying including abroad? Will the next priority group be relatives of people in care homes? Vacc passport schemes are developing fast and are actually being tested at the moment ready for large volume use. Whilst not ideal, a country by country scheme is workable but a central WHO scheme would have been preferrable. So the vacc passports are here but not arriving with the big headline bang I had hopped for (although we may have something like that with a big EU flag waving announcement).
But getting the vacc? That is the next stage and this is one I thought would have issues and those issues have already been raised with the term 'discriminatory' being used. Chest beating politicians is going to be a big hurdle here. However, I have only heard so far the Tories expressing this issue, not Labour, which I find bizarre. Maybe Labour has done more doorstep research and as long as the 'family vacc' paid for scheme is very affordable then may not oppose it.
But for solo travellers? A bit more tricky and one would think such questions would be thought through to start with, but then again in the real world the most blindingly obvious is frequently overlooked.
We don't have a great deal of leaks with news to guide us what the government thinking will be and I suggest that is because there is a war going on in Downing street and I suspect we may see a resignation or two next week. Who walks will be a very strong signal as to the direction of lockdown policy.
For me, day trading this is out, but trying to guess the bottom for an entry point to then sit on for anything from 1 to 6 months is now my game. Ultimately, we will be travelling again without expensive testing or quarantine but whether that will be for the summer or for autum/winter remains to be seen. BUT, for Brits, our freedom to travel will be heavily dependant on an acceptance that our delayed dose program is an acceptable level of vaccination. What ever the science says, there are political opportunities to exploit here which must not be overlooked by you know who!

Jet 2 raising through primarybid ! That doesn't sound good. Are they one the brink?

Same reasons I decided to sell last week, Possibly will go back heavy week today pre bojo announcements, will be looking hard to see what is leaking out of Downing St though. Might split it between Easy J and IAG though.

Test flight? Then 'parked' rather than stored. Or will it's maiden passenger flight be out of LAX so parked at Victorville waiting?

Been in and out a small cap Gunsynd over the last couple of years. It is prone to 'spikes' and as long as you begin clicking the buy button as the spike begins a very reasonable return can be had. There indications it is being lined up again. I announce it now because I know how some trolls love to snarl when mentioning a big hit after the event. Will hold till end of Feb.

INteresting how long it has taken Ireland to put UAE on it's list. The lockdown lobby seems to be extending it's reach across europe now. The lure of power being able to maniuplate such draconian measures becomes intoxicating - but all power corrupts and at some point there will be the push back, the dam bursts and we all roll back rapidly. Trick is guessing when that happens, but lockdown policy is def in the ascendancy at the moment. So the PM big announcemnt is MONDAY 22nd, today Thursday 11th so a full trading week 15th - 19th before statement. That will be the week the lockdown lobby will seek to influence longer and deeper lockdown to be impressed on PM plan. So string of ever harshers ideas and potential policy announcments from a wide variety of soruces in media interviews. So I think the sp of IAG will bottom out Thurs 18th mid morning, some recovery on Fri as people speculate the announcment will have positive impact. The increase in short position may be increased or others take out short positions speculating the plan will depress price much further.

This is a big money making opportunity for one side of the debate, that is for sure.

TP, the speedbird post - I am sure it is a carbon copy of one posted before. I did suggest the A380's could be given to NS to play with, lol, her own state airline. However, for a few months after the opening of borders, as long as those A380s have been kept flight worthy, I expect those seats will be very easy to fill as the backed up travels are cleared through before 'normal' operations as long as there isn't an attempt to get greedy with price hikes. And not just out of the UK, If they are kept on round the world routes I think they couldbe cash cows for 3-4 months. A lot of people want to just be close to family and friends or just to go on a trip to regain a sense of the freedom we all enjoyed before. I have the odd sensation of just wanting to go back to a couple of places as I please but can't - that restriction makes me want more.

But the lockdown is being tightned now. However, I think the sp will drop leading up to the 22nd announcement as expectations are downplayed, ARE being downplayed, and will buy in heavy around the 20th to cash in on a market sentiment that the PMs lckdown exit announcement wasn't as bad as 'predicted'.

It is coming up to the first anniversery since I last went up in the clouds. Whilst there is a lot to lament, there is one thing I have been spared over that time. The idiots giving the pilot a round of applause for landing the aircraft! I have a horrible feeling though when I fly next time I might be so greatful I even welcome the return of the applause ..... agghhhhhhhhhh.....

what statement? to whom was that question intended?

hand**** trying to make a middle of road statement. Anti-holiday lobby has won. Next, xpect same lobby to seal all borders! sorry, don't want to come to that conclusion but there are forces behind the scenes driving this, te Blair cabal for example.

The confused messages from ministers, to book or not book, featured on R4. Notably there is no official line being pushed by some minister doing the studios, which indicates to me there isn't a 'collective' position being pushed yet. War is still on going. Looks like the complete lockdown no holiday lobby is getting the upper hand though, or at least BBC editorial line is going that way - despite them being impartial (lol,ha, ha).

With the pent up demand and stratosphere withdrawl syndrome, I forsee the German Christmas markets doing very well this year!

Is this not the same speedbird post from a week ago?

I think there is still further down to go with the war raging in Downing St. I am expecting a senior resignation in the near future, possibly just before the 22nd announcment.When Boris makes a move, it is decisive, look at the way the two waring advisors were both kicked out.
But which faction will dominate, the antiholiday or proholiday.

are you just here to cause trouble foxbait?

Filtered!

Events Portland, events. I was very bullish to begin with as the vacc was getting off the ground, passport was obvious although not on the agenda and good prospects for an easy buck to be made. But then..... take one high speed fan..... thrown a bucket of **** at it..... and its a whole new ball game kettle of fish.

I think the plan on 22nd will say something like only after 80% are vacced with first dose will travel open up, but then only to restricted zones. If both sides of the fight within downing st are saying don't book holidays, then this is going to be more protracted. Still out - being stung at Dechra at the moment, I do pick 'em.

No idea when I will set entry point for IAG, but I suspect with the politics over boarder closures, passports or not, entry tests and exit tests, this is now going to sink a fair way. Long term, wil be big, short term, place your bets and roll the dice.

""I think the confusion comes in when people talk about domestic passports, which I think is not on the cards.""

Anybody here remember this 'confusion'. I don't ever remember any reference at all. A couple of busy bodies looking to start a fight over companies insisting employees must be vaccinated before they could work, but that was more the trade unions trying to get some air time - must be some leader [perks] elections coming up.

Perhaps the Qataries would like the whole lot. If I buy a million shares now, they can have them for a very reasonable 185 each - off book. Any sheiks out there want to take up my offer :)

Compare the absolute unequivical statments over the weekend that the UK will not be involved in 'discriminatory' vaccs passports as 'it's not what the UK does' with a quote form the IAG share news. WHAT THE **** IS GOING ON WITH THESE PEOPLE?
"(Alliance News) - The International Air Transport Association is in talks with the government about a coronavirus vaccination app for travellers, according to its chief executive.

The trade body is working with carriers on the TravelPass app, which will give people flying abroad the ability to share their coronavirus test and vaccination results.

Alexandre de Juniac told the BBC's Newscast podcast that the app could be rolled out from April, and discussions with the UK government have been "very fruitful".

"We should not anticipate, but the UK authorities are among those with whom we have the closest link on this element," he said."