Member Info for big-blue

It is a rather bogus argument that a covid passport would be discriminatory. So are we going to see the same principle rolled out across the board? I may not have a steak for dinner because not everybody can afford one or it would discriminate against vegans?
This is the sort of numptie reasoning e normal hear from the loony left. One group of people can't have something so NOBODY can have it. A very unacceptable policy from a Tory government. Grow up!

"But, a big personal problem out of the way yesterday, so a much clearer head."

New patio?

I predict 168p Linkop. When it happens, I will be the sage of the board for prediciting it [ignore the fact it is blindingly obvious it will hit that and pass it at some point as the lockdown opens up]

Newsnight running headline discussion on vacc passport. Looks like there is big move towards it within EU. Watch Easy jet on Monday, 10% ?????

I don't think we are in for a run of bad results.

Whilst any new unemployment is not good, look at the numbers. The are not exactly a total wipeout. They are equitable with the credit crunch era. A great number of people have been receiving furlough money whilst also saving on a huge part of many salaried budgets, the commute! Have you tried finding a plumber or electrician recently? You have to book months in advance. Many of the outlets closed at the start have found ways to switch to online and deliveries and what we think of basket case businesses are at least breaking even. There are def some sectors to do with live venues and social eating/drinking that have been hit hard. But overall, how many of those businesses that have gone were so close to the edge anyway they would have gone without covid? The next results I think will be fine, but in 6 months time when the furlough schemes and grants stop, that might be the bad time.

Yes, pre-flight, I suppose that will be required too. If it is a Q 2D barcode system then no big issues as long as the people put on the database is truthfull and in order. What could possibly go wrong?

The advantage of a one system approach means that the border control, say at Heathrow, will not have to check the authenticity of 100 different certificates.
An 'app' will more or less behave as one system sice it will give a pass or fail on a look up database with on scan. The issue though will be if the vacc country has correctly maintained it's countires database following some protocols verifying those listed as vacced have indeed been vacced.
So ad hoc to start with maybe, for the intial tourist destinations, but for a pan global vacc passport I cannot see anyother viable system tha one with central control including protocols to be applied globally. I get the impression that is where the creation of the system is at the moment.
But my original concern remains about whether UK citizens will be allowed to have the passport since the vacc has not been issued according to the instructions. We also saw the mask slip with the EU and they may well use a vacc passport as a means of retailiation for not handing over our vac to them on command - still a very live and dnagerous issue. EU is still trying to insist that their signing of deals should be applied retrospectively as if they had signed at the same time as the UK. How the tourist hotspots will react to EU travel instrictions implsed on the UK remains to be seen - but in assessing the sp future there are still some signifcant issues and potential classhes to come, but at least there are a couple of steps in the right direction.

Vacc passports well on agenda now. Greece saying they are minded to accept. UK gov this morning syaing they would help implement other countires requests as acknowledged vsacc pre travel already well established. The answer was a little wooley, it seems that a single central system is yet to be announced.

The move towards vacc passportsis now well underway and I hope there is a well organised central system rather than a hodge podge of individual systems. Whether the Greeks et al will indeed check any paperwork presented at their border as proof of vacc remains to be seen!!!

I was expecting you in the rather fetching pink gloves TP.

Ok TP, I accept your challenge. Choose your pistol and I will see you on Threadneedle St as the RNS is released on the 26th Feb. At precisely 5 mins after the RNS, take you best shot!

............ on the other hand,

city expects x billion loss bit is a bit lower.
Oct to early Nov, 90ish area with a couple of blips up over 100. Then, whoosh up to the 140s and bouncing around the 160 level. That is the zone the city priced it in with expected estimation of losses, and I expect the 'pricing in' to be harsh given the forward looking situation. The recent dip below 140 was based on some panic events pis reacted too - but the iis did not dump it and there is a recovery again to what is was before in the 160ish zone. I expect the Q4 losses will have been priced in harshly, and my 180 will arrive based just on that alone. But I am not risking day trading this. I am not hands on every min of trading so will not be able to react in time should there be a sudden rocket.

I suspect the Q4 results have been priced in for a while. I expect the restoration of the sp is to where the market had expected to be on Q4, wher I more or less came in at the 155ish level.

You see, if I wasn't locked in with IAG I would be making millions on LLoyds and a 'little gem of a pharma company'. As it is, I will have to console myself with a large glass of single malt on the stroke of 6pm.

If the sp was actualy set according to live booking rates, then maybe we would have to wait 4-6 weeks. However, there is the forward looking to factored in. The point of buying shares to sell, is that you buy at a low price and sell at high price. You don't wait the 4-6 weeks have the recovery and THEN buy the shares. You buy them NOW whilst they are low. You speculate. As we get closer to the 'recovery' the riskof the speculation reduces and the more and more cautious investor comes in creating buying pressure. Those who bought in at a higher risk sell out to those looking for less risk. Those who want divies in the [very] long term or want to hold an asset that most likley will grow ahead of inflation - or even intrest rates - will use a stock like IAG. So far my higher risk lower entry price stratergy has probably only cost me a few million as I was locked in here rather than investing perfectly else where on a cummulative basis.

Then again, IAG locking me in here might have saved my bacon and left me to profit and fight another day.

RNS?

If this is being 'played' as I suspect it will be by some trading desks, then a rinse and repeat form a couple of weeks ago might be on the cards, i.e. you will be able to exit at something like 165 and re-enter low 140s.

HOWEVER, the big risk is being out when a significant bit of news hits, vaccine passport schemes, holiday islands opened (as opposed to continent tourist spots opening up - sorry Barcelona, stock the bars in Ibiza), holiday resorts setting themselves up as virually gated communities like Golden Sands Bulgaria (although they are already for the taxi scams). If you miss tat level up then your next entry may be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with limited upper exit levels.

But then again it could tank down to 80 or rocket to 350 - nobody knows.

ANd my breakeven with Easy Jet was 786, so already over that. Target there is 900, a bit more ambitious.

Miy breakeven is 153, almost settling on that platform now. So back to square one a month latter!

I regretted buying IAG because I have ended up bing locked in. I should have been out with my 180+ or currently watching a continous steady rise with my finger hovering over the sell button each day.

The rapid exit from the flight ban will be coming, but not as quick as I wanted. It is the same sentiment but over a different time scale. Why did I buy in the first place, in order to cash in on the inevitable...

30 - 40 years ago, when getting on an aeroplane was still a novelty to the masses, joing the 'jet set', if the pandemic and subsequent suspension of flights had happened back then, then thoughts of a return to the then normal may have taken 3 years. Travel over the last 5 - 10 years has changed beyond measure. Not just around Europe, in the states, all around Asia, the use of air transport is now barely a shrug of the shoulders. The US were a few years ahead in treating aircraft as a basic flying bus, but if you haven't experienced Asia, SEA air travel, it is the same as the US or Europe. You can see the number of planes on flightradar24 during flying hours. People are so used to it and the resultant spread of family and friends from the end of the lane, to the next town and now in the 'jet bus' age, a nearby continent means it is EXPECTED the availability of flights will be returned and very quickly. Even long haul is becoming routine, an opportunity to catch up with technical reading or frankley having a day off!!!! In fact, the expectation of the freedom to be able to travel in planes at the price levels many have become used to with the budget end of the market is the big stopper for the environmentalists. Despite saturation marketing throughout the whole of the last year plus, sales of electirc vehicles are pitifull. Why, because the vehicles have limitations and are prohibitively expensive regarding the regular battery replacement requirements. That failure to convert people will be seen in the air travel business too. Environmentalists are going to have to become very handed authortarian to force their philosophy on air and indeed car travel reduction. And there is always a response to that kind of imposition on societies.
So I predict a very rapid and sharp rebound. The limiting factor will be re-staffing and putting people back in the right place with the right level of trainning and experience. Ryanair are flying empty planes to keep the pilots flying hours up to scratch. You will see, as soon as the likes of Greece or Italy announce open airports again, all seats will be gone 6 months in advance within hours. There will be critisism from media about not staging ticket sales or having target catagories of sales (which actually means said reporter went to buy tickets for the faimily holiday, couldn't find any then tried to use their 'status' to get tickets out of the call center and got treated like the rest of us plebs.)