Member Info for big-blue

"Boris better come out with a clear plan for the travel industry on Mon or else he will be hung, drawn, and quartered - fingers crossed!!"
For clarification, is that fingers crossed Boris will be hung, drawn and quartered - or that he comes out with a clear plan for the travel industry?

Discuss.

Remember though, the numbers travelling by air are low relative to social gathering points being opened up on tera firma. The present price I have always assumed was orientated around some decent flying volume getting into the summer holiday widow, Easter was always out. By now it is clear Easter flying is more or less ruled out, but the sp has only drifted around a few pennies.

"To say very clearly, Aer Lingus will not be allowed to
fail. It is already receiving substantial financial support from
government. Discussions are underway on further support for the
company so it is there when we need it again," Varadkar told
parliament.

GUN seems to be finally waking up. A particular individual called akers has just increased again - apparently this is of note. I have a punt in here as it can spike every now and then and something was in the diary for Feb. Will pay for plumbing perhaps in the new bathroom?

Small bleed of pis erring on the side of caution before a big week of news. I think it is just treading water, will be interesting to see Friday afternoon and Monday. What time is the road map to be published? Need to be carefull about apparent large up tick which is actually due to large trade being cleared.

So far the political groups have set out their stalls and it is a six and two threes, anti-lockdown good media prescence, lockdown more subtle off-the record nudge theory approach.

I am sure the key is Lord Frost is the key. Perhaps should bung a few into Easy J......

or..... government has hugely overbooked hotel rooms many of which are empty and in a face saving move more countries are added to the list in a desperate attempt to fill the rooms!!!!

Asked, can Brits visit, very positive answer. 'semi-normal summer'. Preliminary discussions between UK and Greece on holiday route. Technical discussions, but still want negative tests pre-travel for non-vacced.

Things are moving forward on the development of a system.

Mike84, are you having to wait t+3 for cleared funds? I use iWeb sharedealing and the funds from a sale are instantly available, trades £5 each way no minimum number of trades or annual fees.

So, is 'Lord Frost' pro or anti lockdown, pro or anti travel, pro or anti vacc passport?

I was aware there was a big political maneouver going on, I have posted I expected resignations possibly towards the end of this week. This appointment is very signifincant. I don't know what his position is on the above questions, but his association with the EU implies to some extent that he is better informed and connected to facilitate inclusion in an EU vacc passport offering I think a possability of better access for holidays for Brits in EU.
Watch out for treasury announcements (read between the lines on furlough) and also what side of the fence Frost sits re lockdown. We may still see a big resignation on the side opposite, although technically his role doesn't start untill 1st March just before the budget so resignations might not be until next week. I do not think Frost is a neutral placement and the fact he has now been placed in a cabinet position implies positioning him for support to the PMs up coming road map.

Johnbir, you still have to wear masks out doors? I was there last October and didn't like it - mostly shut and having to wear masks outside, not a pleasent experience in that heat. My point was that the Canaries is a travel corridor and travel is allowable. As this is possible at the point where the most severe restrictions imposed to date by the UK exist, it indicates the probability of such travel corridors being extended is high as there is a working model to refer to - however imperfect at the moment. Although the costs of tests is a problem, I do wonder how long they will continue globaly because they are of little use due to the incubation time of the virus. I always get the impression when the issue of mass testing is raised, a bone with a bit of meat on it is thrown to the media whilst other more meaningfull policies are put in place - e.g. closing the schools in Jan rather than following some mass testing initiaive.

"The FCDO advises against all but essential travel to:

Spain, including the Balearic Islands but excluding the Canary Islands, based on the current assessment of COVID-19 risks.
"
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/spain

This is why I keep a candle burning for the opening up of holiday corridors, although it is supposed to be illegal to take a holiday, the Canaries do not have restrictions. I expect island groups, especially Greek, to be developing isolation protocols starting now - resident employees only for example - and using things like vacc passports to open up to tourists. But the return leg? who knows? Any way, lot of work to do with the bathroom refit and nothing to see really until the Boris statement. Of course, if it suddenly shoots up to 250 I'll take profits sharpish, but the probability is low for that. Where will it be post budget? That is my next marker. Smiler ride in the meantime, wahoo front row seats.

One thing I will buy with my mega profits, a new wireless keyboard!!!

Tis is the noise and volatility as runing up to three dates, road map, reuts and budget. Day trade wit your ear very close to the ground or ut yur money in and stand back not to be spooked.

not relaxed untilend of year? That is a very long time away! until end of summer worst case.

The watch word Portland I think will be 'corridors'. I expect a nod towards the desire for people to be able to travel, corridors will be openend up (island destinations for example) working with the countries concerned to have vacc and anti-infection proceedures in place to allow easy return to UK. If testing is used, that will be a moajor put off due to extra cost. Also the thorny issue of being able to buy a pre-travel vacc privately still not raised in public. I expect that to be a limiting factor, only after xyz groups have been vacced by NHS will private vaccs be allowed [cue chest beating liberals to start bouncing off the walls). Effect on sp, anything giving clarity of a road map or criteria to be met I think will significantly boost the sp. SP level as a consequence of normal business measures will be factored in later in the year as real cash revenue and planes start flying in volume.

The Daily Mail story quote seems quite innocent,
"The United Kingdom has vaccinated 15.6 million people with a first dose so far."
But, the actual situation is x million people have had the first dose of a two dose vaccine program, the second dose being adminsitered up to 9 weeks later than the recommended time.

At the moment the vaccination program is reported with great flag waving and pomp. We have to be ready for a very significant knock down IF, a big if, if places like the EU declare our program as void. Data so far is indicating degrees of innoccultaion, but there are places around the world that can and will deliberatley interpret the data negatively. Also, there are places that will accept the data and accept Brits are adequately vaccinated. It also could be determined that the British method works and is therefore rolled out everywhere, but the lack of other countries following our lead now that data emerges is a note of caution.
Just one of the many variables to bear in mind if you are day trading. Every rise is accompanied on here and elsewhere with severe ramping. Keep your wits about you.

There it is, reputation on the line. Tp says drop, bb says rise. [theme tune The Good, The Bad, the ugly]

There it is, reputation on the line. Tp says drop, bb says rise. [theme tune The Good, The Bad, the ugly]

I'm not suggesting anybody who took profits "that we don't know what we are doing. " I am suprised at the number of people saying that results = drop in sp as an absolutism. I know you don't like the phrase 'priced in' but I can not not presume that those with access to a range of very sophisticated tools have not estimated a price to expect at the results stage. Now normally I would predict profit taking at results but the circumstances are very un-normal. It is why I decided 160ish was looking stable with no sign of 'the market' pulling back to a lower level lets call it. I read the market as the bulk of the iis sitting on where they are, there will be nosie on the day but I think with these abnormal times forward looking sentiment to the very near future will stop any retracing and instead push the sp upwards. I say 200 post budget as that I think will be the likley iis profit taking time - just as pis fill the gap based on assurances of industry backing from the chancellor combined with clarity and clarification on how a return to free flight is to be acheived, irrespective of the time line involved (hence makeing prep for long lock in if required).

Looks like Dechra is coming in on time, back to just above breakeven as results are due, cash out to provide dry poder for IAG. Loving it.