Member Info for big-blue

Around 5bn AndyF1

https://ycharts.com/companies/ICAGY/market_cap

if the rights had NOT been done.

The same, today's market cap at 165 but what would the 165 look like if the rights had been done. Well it is the current m cap divided by pre rights shares, 8,240,220,000/1,987,982,898 giving 414.

Unless your question is different, it is just like a buy-back of shares without the m cap changing back to pre rights share level.

Shares issued in rights (note 6 times over subscribed) 2,979,443,376
Market cap (LSE) 8, 240,220,000
Total shares todate (last total voting RNS) 4,967,426,274
So sp of 166 on the above data.
So take of the rights gives shares 1,987,982,898
divide by market cap above
Gives 414 sp.

However, the share will have behaves a bit differntly if their had been no dilution.

Reverse the dilution. (Current number shares-number in issue)/current market cap. Same as if it were a buy-back.

Road map headlines being rolled out 'throughout the day'. Day traders, fingers on the trigger when/if holiday and international travel gets it's 15 mins.

No, I called 168 when I first moved into IAG for me a base from which the sp would rise from. Serious events that could not be foreseen occured (EU) and the recovery back to the platform of 168 has occurred over the last 6 weeks or so. If anything, it needs to catch up with itself and so those posting in the 170s are probably on the momey for a week or two. After the budget, the rise from the platform will continue with some normal saw tooth movement, but constantly rising to the towards full free travel again, I say in the 300s for end of year.

But what do I know?

OK minions, now my status of investment god is proven, it is time to make the next prediction.

Assuming the EU doesn't actually declare war with us rather than just hinting at it (!), whatever the time scale, the most important thing to come out of this two week head banging session will be an actual road map where everybody can see a route back to normal flying. I think the results will have no negative impact. It is vacc passports, travel corridors and identifying holiday destinations (islands) in the near term. Opening up the transatlantic route in the mid term. I think that diplomatically putting USA on red list is a non-starter (politics!!!). There may be some good news for the long bank holiday start of April pushing the sp into the 180 region.

So I am putting down a 200+ marker for 1st week in May.

Of course this is based on a relatively stright forward run of world events.

One outsider is the varients - I expect the next ones to be declared practiaclly benign. They will effectively act as a natural vaccine bring herd immunity about rapidly. The benign strain may already be amongst us.

I actually wonder now whether there was a large dump that has been worked through quite quickly rather than a market response to bad news. Also, the overseas earnings after currency conversion
"Reported Group revenue for the Period increased by 21.8% at Constant Exchange Rate (CER) (20.6% at Actual Exchange Rate (AER))."
is only 1.2% lower, not a big impact. Much more importantly is the statement that there has been no exporting or importing impact following Brexit (compared to what some industries have experienced). Probably should have headlined that one above the others imo.
sp is on a steady climb now so looks pike pis coming in. Would be nice to see a few iis come in as a steady portfolio stock.

Timing of announcement? I don't think this is an accident. Of note, why would airways do this if there was a pot of gold on offer from the treasury to help during restricted travel going into the summer? Is this a sign form the treasury that they will not be continuing support for a range of industries locked down going into summer? Just thoughts.

Given good results, why the drop?

Well there we go, the 168 was achieved. I always said it would be. Therefore, I am the sage of investing, your new guru, I am your master, your god and wolf of Wall st. lol.

Just ignore my Dechra punt, errmmm, although revenue up 22%, EBITDA up 31% and divi raised 8%. So it drops? Odd performance.

"A final decision will be made on whether to add the countries to the “red list” at the Cabinet Covid operations committee this week."
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/united-states-spain-quarantine-flights-hotel-red-list-b920250.html
Article 2 days old.
One to be careful about. This is the news story I joked the government were going to add more countries because they had too many empty hotel rooms. I don't know what date the commitee meets. Also, I am not sure if the details of the road map are to be released in press releases before the briefing, and I suspec the briefing will be the 5pm standard one. So there is a good chance the road map and any red list decision will be after the market closes.

19-Feb-21 16:35:25 165.75 6,585,978 Sell* 165.80 165.85 11m UT

Despite an 11m sell being worked through, sp was actually up 5%. There might be a very tempting 'twang' up on the market opening. I won't be day trading though, well, unless it goes nuts in which case rude not to.

If the state of leaks is as it is at the moment, we may all be scratching our heads by Monday evening trying to identify what exactly is the 'road map'. This has been heavily trailed as a 'road map' and so the expectation will be for details of how to come out of lockdown, order of events and trigger points (accepting fixed dates will not be announcend). I am begining to wonder whether we will have 2 items on the agenda and the rest will be a case of wait and see. Maybe the Downing St spin machine has over played this but I am going to predict Tuesday news stories full of 'Road map, what road map'!! I know the BBC is already preparing trouble with a list of future event questions to be put directly to ministers; "when will people be able to book a holiday in Greece", for example.

oooooooooohhhhhhhhhhh............. TP!

"As we've all been saying, we all know IAG will be posting a loss. The article correctly points out its the future plans IAG have that the city will scrutinise. "

You almost said the loss was 'priced in'. lol

Remember everyone we are dealing with politicitians here rather than markets. Keep in mind Borrissssess politics re- Heathrow expansion - dead set against. He is very unlikley to come out guns blazing for a return to international travel as it would be used against him in the on going saga of Heathrow's new runway. He may make a reference to the aviation sector, but talk about the need to help regional airports and Gatwick, ignoring Heathrow. I expect him to confirm free air travel will return based on various conditions that are someway off being met and he will refer to the chancellors budget spelling out assitance while the planes remain grounded. He will not refer directly to holiday routes (the islands) but will affirm ways of allowing people to go on overseas holidays is being explored, not available at all in spring, and further announcements will be made in due course. It is possible to avoid media picking that he will offer review dates such as 1st week in May or some other defendable date.

I think he has a lot more leaverage to be vague and generalise than some think. Whilst the media has been a real pain in the arse during the pandemic beleiving they are championing the voice of the people, there are frequent references scattered around news stories across the board commenting that people are not so ****y with Boris and a wider understanding that we are muddling through as well as can be expected. Take the U turn of the planned opening of schools in January. Media went into a full blitz but got sharp tongues back from a lot of parents through the social medias and the full on attack on the tories melted within a few days. Whatever he says the BBC and Guardian will spin it as a major negative anyway. Notice he doesn't do interviews because of the bad atitudes in the media!!!!!!!!

Just a couple more pennies up, you know you can do it, just touch 168 and confirm my status as investment guru, god to them all.....

Afternoon rally could see my magic 168 finally hit. Few pennies either side of my recent entry point is of no consequence (163 av) so if we are sitting around 168 then that is a good spring board for all the mega positives next week (can't say that for Dechra though - pulling teeth there and fifty quid down, tut)

Dates are not expected but clarity is. Many investment sectors are looking for a plan to work with however lose. The build up to this might involve statements along the lines of managing a level of covid within the population from now on. Certainly cannot continue lockdown forever, the resources are simply not there. The economy needs the spending to start so this may be the underlying message. As for our intetest, expect firm commitment to reopening the industry, but only after certain milestones towarfs herd immunity have been achieved. Targetbto achieve them? No target because boza knows any guidance will result in bookings boom that might be too early. And we must have info on the return leg arrangements - on which that could be the tool used to manage the numbers looking to book holidays (flights). Keep the return to the UK a problem to discourage earlh bookings. Relax return leg restrictions latter to open industry. But look out for any reference to 'corridors', to be expanded or tighter restrictions.

dubled, some tories think that, others tjink that the public want to see things opened up.

Interesting the Beeb opening up the question again about 'living' with covid rather than trying to wipe it out. A rare moment of real world narrative rather than than the politically correct wok accusative we normally hear. Mind you, plenty of vastly over paid beeb pen pushers will be wanting to get away to their holiday homes soon!!!!