Member Info for BeContrarian

To his supporters it’s classic CF, thinking big and with the right personnel to make significant progress in this field (we take the numbers and timeframes with a pinch of salt).

To his detractors it’s more rope to hang him with if, despite making massive progress, the targets aren’t met.

I kind of like the way he hasn’t tempered his ebullience though. As if to say ‘I am who I am, take it or leave it’

For sure the current SP is frustrating for some. I totally get that and in turn, people start asking questions. But equally, I’m assuming most PIs didn’t buy Orph (at any price) to sell up after one spin out at 24p. So we need to look long term and at the big picture.

We are still in the throes of an IPO, a colossal undertaking, successfully underway now. There will be more on the way. There is somehow a suggestion from some corners that the spin outs shouldn’t have been done. This I just cannot comprehend. Other than the Orph SP taking a dive (made worse than it really is IMO) there is no logical reason not to, under Orph, these resources cannot flourish and make money. ‘Oh yes, we are open orphan, a clinical studies specialist, but we also have a flu treatment, oh, and would you like to take a look at our disease data too?’ Surely it doesn’t take much thought to realise that these assets sitting in the cupboard, just to maintain a bit of short term SP stability, is a good long term strategy? Will we feel the same when our free DIM shares potentially multibag?

Even taking core OO on its own, which some people seem to be bizarrely gloomy on, look around you. Infection rates are shooting up, the delta variant is evading vaccines and new thinking os needed and will be needed as social appetite for normality returns and thus variants will emerge. This discounts the flu wave we will see this winter and also the hotting up in the malaria space. My thinking is there is absolutely room for growth but at the least, charging more of a premium for our services.

Too many not looking past the end of their own noses, aka the SP, at the minute. The future is very bright but patience is evidently needed for the next 18 months at least.

NGR - definitely the former rather than the latter.

As you alluded to in your post, it becomes somewhat self defeating if you lend all that money and stand to inherit nothing in the event of failure.

Lombard upped their position in may, pre markman, and have technically done so again here. I’m assuming that they see whatever commercialisation Nano has in the pipeline as de risking the current SP and so worth nursing Nano through this period of cash burn.

We already knew that the court case will be seen through to its conclusion and that nano had the funds to slug it out. Therein is a potential game changing settlement that will immediately put us in a different position all together.

But litigation to one side, which I suppose you must always consider to be an ‘if’ (though I’m personally very bullish about) The question of nano’s future is secure with this further financing at least to the point of bringing about commercial production. But, we BTB said, reaching commercialisation will be the key threshold that will need to be crossed next. Let’s hope there aren’t too many twists and turns on that particular road.

I think Brian Tenner is absolutely the man for the job and will successfully lead this company to commercial production.

Bronx, to be fair, you’ve made some decent points that I have, in part agreed with over the time.

However, your insistence on ramming your abundant opinions, repeatedly, down people’s throats is what attracts the ire of your fellow posters.

Make your point, by all means, but we aren’t goldfish, and don’t require the ‘benefit’ of your opinion to be repeated at hourly intervals.

Your insistence on having the last word also reflects rather dimly I might add.

Impatience created the drop and impatience created bad blood around CF. It’s now clear that it was not a deliberate hold up and couldn’t be helped. I would suggest with a reasonable degree of certainty that the subtle and not so subtle negativity that’s dominated this board for the past few weeks contributed to that.

The facts are CF has done exactly what he said he would and we are now off and running again. It annoys me that people create a binary ‘positive’ ‘negative’ camp, as if members of the other side are zealots. Even the eternal optimist can see that communications and expectation management needs some work, but equally the most negative of us on here should recognise that this company is going from strength to strength. I just hope the board can move on from fruitless CF bashing and start looking at where this grand project is headed next.

KG - if you thought he was a ‘barrow boy’ but invested anyways then more fool you.

Funny that the prime deramp squad who post ‘for the sake of balance’ don’t mind the board being completely awash with negativity today. Not much balance to be found at all.

Until news arrives there will be pressure on the SP. CF is at least partly to blame for that because the timeframes he set out have now passed. I’m putting it down to being something pretty big where a few things need ironing out first. Traders are feasting on the uncertainty and this board will be fertile ground for spooking a few more out of their shares.

There’s been some pretty wild theories being chucked about here today. I agree things could have been handled better in terms of investor expectation. But it makes you wonder how many of these people are invested here if it’s the tin pot operation they’d have you believe it was.

A lovely bit of news to wake up to.

Great to see nano isn’t being blinkered by the litigation and is exploring new horizons.

Could be a great year.

If we clear PTAB the prospect of a trial becomes a serious financial and reputational liability to Samsung. There could be an element of ‘sunk cost fallacy’ which brings Samsung to trial simply because they’ve come this far and will see it through.

But there will surely be some wise heads advising Samsung that defending the indefensible won’t look good and there will be a window of opportunity for Samsung to make a monetary saving and save face by approaching the negotiating table to settle pre trial.

If we clear PTAB I would support nano in either scenario. There’s an argument that ‘a bird in hand’ would make settling the preferable option, but equally I would totally understand nano’s going for the jugular in court. But given cash runway, a settlement would probably work best for both parties.

I think a settlement is more likely than the market seems to think. But let’s wait and see.

I suppose one could also come to the conclusion that a stay provides more time for case construction and horizon scanning/stress testing certain scenarios/rebuttals to nano’s assertions.

Although ironically, Samsung would have had a far easier job of sowing seeds of doubt at this trial rather than a stayed trial which will have a much simpler narrative owing to the PTAB.

Frustrating it can’t be put in your ISA. This was a long term play for me. Think I might as well wait to buy on the open market in that case.

Yes same here no experience of an IPO share. What if after the book build you aren’t happy with the SP relative to the number of shares in issue? Can you withdraw?

Jesus wept the dooms brigade are out in force today. What’s this board come to?

Look at the OO board members and then look at their track record. Look at CF’s track record. Look what he has done here since 2017…

Despite the frustrating pullback there is no arguing with what CF has achieved. Dredging up a couple of comments from a decade ago won’t undo that.

‘Investors’ with money here claiming the man is a charlatan is an absolute joke. Derampers the more likely explanation. If you are invested and insist on moaning for the sake of ‘balance’ then find something better.

I totally agree Hawi. As I said at the time, this was done on Nano’s terms. To take Samsung on at their own strategy is very bullish indeed. It’s almost like whichever strategic road they take, they are confident of an outcome; only this one does not give Samsung any sort of out if they lose.

The flurry of filings against expert testimony from Samsung today shows you that if the truth comes out in this trial, they are done for. It all smacks of desperation. Their entire legal case rests on technicalities, which are the very technicalities Mintz will tackle head on and dismantle.

But sooner or later Samsung will have to think business instead of a legal war of attrition that’s clearly beginning to backfire.

Option A:
A wilful infringement case, dragged through the courts, ending in a highly punitive damages and further dragging through the proverbial mud, followed by a licensing agreement that will likely be on the expensive side owing to all the heartache.
Or
Option B:
Take the initiative, apologise, agree a settlement out of court and propose a fair but competitive licensing agreement going forward (who knows you could even try your luck with an exclusive deal to maintain your competitive advantage).

If I were Samsung I know which option I’d be pursuing.

This isn’t an attempt to ramp, the SP can do what it wants for all I care. I’m just saying I feel it’s well worth my time sticking around here.

If there is no RNS this week then I think CF mis-stepped and did more harm than good with his news imminent currently locked out comments. Hopefully lesson learned by CF that people will naturally hang on his every word and all that comes with it…

And I think this has somewhat skewed thinking on here almost solely along those lines.

Really important to remember that A LOT of CF’s energies are probably going into ensuring that Poolbeg IPO will be a success. If it fails, the spin off process could be totally killed off and that would set a very dangerous precedent for our other (potentially massive) spin offs such as DIM.

So as investors we must ask ourselves: would I rather this contract drop and CF not be fully focused on the IPO, or would I rather OO stagnate a little for now but ultimately a success made of the spin offs? I know it’s not as simple as an ‘either or’ scenario, but when it boils down to it, CF can be forgiven in the current climate for focusing on making the spin offs a success, ultimately that is the route through which maximum shareholder value will be achieved.

Hang tight.

I don’t think much on the legal front in terms of strategy supports the bear argument. I’ve been really impressed by how well they seem to have Samsung pegged at the moment. PTAB goes our way and it’s curtains.

The bear argument is simply a matter of timings. Our horse is still very much in the stable and that’s a big turn off to some. Many out there will think they can get better returns elsewhere and return closer to the trial. Fair enough, it’s their money.

But we aren’t privy to conversations behind closed doors. And my gut tells me that conversations are being had. I can live with a paper loss. I don’t think I could live with myself if I was out of this share and a settlement was agreed…

The bear says nano is going nowhere at the minute
The bull says that could change at any moment

Bronx, if it were signed it would’ve been RNSd at the time. That’s how RNS works.
He alluded to the fact some bits and pieces needed to be sorted first.

Agree with the comments. The selling is down to frustration at the timelines. Patience is a virtue and if we have to wait a year then so be it. From this sort of base it’ll still be an epic return if the case is successful so whilst we might not see a great annual return on this investment at the moment, it’ll reward us handsomely in the long term.

To each their own I guess. It could be a sluggish 12 months or so, equally a settlement could come out the blue and put a rocket under the SP. A slim chance granted but that’s why I’m continuing to hold.

Just an observation but you could pretty much pinpoint when the selling gathered pace with the opening of US markets.
I don’t think there’s much speculative money at all here but clearly a few hoping for a quicker timeline.
Still a strong solid base of PIs and IIs sticking it out though. Selling was very muted before this afternoon.

Don’t remember his exact wording but next week or two was what I vaguely remember. Should get an RNS some point this week.