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Ps wishing you all the best Kiwi and let’s hope SNG delivers the goods!

Very true Ghia. The market can be a very nefarious place and here in AIM, we are right in the eye of the storm in terms of mind games and trader shenanigans. In the past two weeks alone we’ve seen a ‘pump and dump’ and a ‘bear raid’. When it’s money on the line you cannot afford to lose, those market movements are amplified to the point that rash decisions become much more likely. Being too active in one’s investments, if you’re not a trader, is rarely good.

The TR1 today perhaps giving us all a little bit of perspective that the drop was largely engineered and that a major fund is as bullish as ever on this.

Handsome money to be made for the savvy trader in this share.

In theory support should reside higher than our previous May lows based on the positive news that prompted the rally back up to 170s, in addition to additional II interest. My guess is 120 will be robustly supported.

But this is clearly still a speculators paradise so in the absence of any news, it really wouldn’t surprise me if we ended up smashed back to 100p or thereabouts. Really hope I’m wrong on that one mind.

History will look back on 130 as a good buy, but I don’t think the selling is through TBH.

I don’t think the Merck news is behind friday’s drop. This drug targets a different phase of disease progression, requires a specific window of opportunity that I suspect wouldn’t be so easy to identify had it not been in tight trial conditions, and that’s all setting to one side what I find to be the deeply problematic issue of a treatment that works by mutating a virus within the body. Playing with fire or what…

However, it does seem that as more treatments cross the line, no doubt helped by money, lobbying and vested interests, SNG seems to be hitting, and tolerating, delays. For me, recruitment has been simply too slow and without recruitment, the whole procedure is at a snail’s pace. I doubt Merck would be sitting on hands allowing slow recruitment to take place. Pressure would be exerted, incentives offered. I don’t see a similar savviness from SNG at the moment, we are too polite for our own good it would seem. And so we are last in line at the dinner queue. Activ 2 perhaps a case in point here.

Now either we aren’t pushing hard enough or perhaps the Activ delay means it’s marginal data. Who knows. But I do feel the reason behind the drop is because we aren’t winning the race with big pharma to get our drug to market, and don’t seem to have a cogent plan in place to drive and improve recruitment rates.

I still absolutely believe in this drug and think we will be successful in the end. But I think it’s also fair to say that just relying on the science without the strong commercial drive to accelerate trials is a big reason behind yesterday’s drop…

Just a thought but calling a poster who has what appear to be genuine concerns, articulating them properly, and no doubt views shared by many involved since the fundraise a ‘one post wonder’ is classless and does no favours for this board.

I still have faith here but the delays are deeply frustrating. I believe the science will win out here but to just shut people down without engaging with the debate does nobody any favours.

Unfortunately history tells you that whatever move is made in the morning, is exacerbated in the afternoon. Up or down.

The selling is far from done.

Yes agree Kev. Whilst I am confident, why is it we are last to the Activ rodeo?

Think I’m going to sell my entire holding on Monday based on JWD’s cogent and well researched analysis of the pandemic.

Interesting take Kev. Personally I see Activ as the higher bar vs our own P3. Surely if Activ is good the doors will be blown off?!

Hi Mozi,
I’m inclined to agree that over promising in the past is hurting us a little now. Despite good results and 12mils worth of contracts announced since lows of 20p, the SP just won’t budge.
Your other comments, however, are a little unfair. Barely anyone is mentioning the Nasdaq thing on this board, I think it’s one of those ‘don’t hold your breath comments’ that CF often makes. We know now to take such things with a pinch of salt, though no doubt this is something he will be eyeing up you don’t take it to the bank. The fact it’s barely been mentioned shows you that few, if any, are using this to ‘ramp’.
Your comments about wishing CF would talk facts and results is odd. I’m assuming you didn’t watch the investor presentation Monday? Generally I found the presentation very much grounded in the less glamorous and less exciting realm of solid figures and really rubber stamping the financial position beyond any reasonable doubt. He’s clearly dialled back the optimism which perhaps some within the market are seeing as a negative?

Despite the price action today I’m looking forward to the investor meet tonight and think the tone will be upbeat. The market will catch up eventually.

All I can say is it’s a strange world we live in when a company is profitable, announces another contract in the millions, and the shares are worth LESS than before all this was known.

Time to stick on the tin hat and wait for the collective market madness to subside. Will come good soon enough.

Good luck all

Compelling theory fruits,

One question that emerges for me is if SNG are engaged in a challenge study, given cost, and that this would be deemed market sensitive, would be RNSd?

Would love for it to be us though. Also have skin in Orph as it happens so would be a huge win win for me.

Well put Saxon. Remdesivir is classic example of what you describe in terms of the clout of big pharma, emergency approved by the FDA in October last year; now declared bunk by the WHO. And who is behind this nigh on useless treatment that has made no doubt millions as one of the sole approved therapeutics? Gilead, with a market cap of 90 billion.

That tells you what the likes of SNG are up against, yet it is also cause for hope because eventually the science will win out here. And all the shenanigans in the world by big pharma won’t be able to hide our trial data when it finally drops.

One of the primary fears aired on this board is that we won’t arrive to the party in time. Now, gearing up for what will no doubt be another bad winter for infections, 18 months since this pandemic started, people are starting to realise that COVID, like flu, is something that will come back year after year. I’m certain we will be having the same conversation next year as we are having this year, which is the same conversation we had last year…you get my point haha.

Sure we would like news soon. And I think we will get it. But patience will be richly rewarded here I feel.

It’s been a ‘wait and see’ period for Orph but Monday will be an interesting one for sure. I’d say a lot of LTHs are still here because the investment case is still strong. Just sitting on hands, waiting it out.

The unknown variable will be the un RNSd smaller contracts, any contracts whose value was not disclosed, and costs. IMO, those will be the margins upon which results will be judged.

I agree with citizen that Monday will not be the be all and end all by any means. If results are awful or brilliant, expect that to be capitalised on. But perspective is everything, we are in a hot space, been some brilliant contracts drop recently etc. Last couple of months there have been a couple of really nice contracts drop, but it’s failed to shift sentiment entirely. For that reason, I think current price has already priced in all but the worst case scenario results IMO. No doubt lessons were learned from last set of results, and how destabilising that was for the SP. I’m cautiously optimistic.

What I will say though is now August is through and the often ‘news barren’ summer at an end, I would like to hear some forward guidance on spin outs. We won’t get 4 done by year end but I would love to hear progress is being made on DIM and/or giving SEEK the kick up the proverbial it desperately needs. We don’t want the spin out narrative to dry up as that will be bad for core Orph long term in my opinion.

Anyway, we look forward to Monday! And the rich vein of news that will hopefully follow. GLA

175 was tested early doors today. Don’t be surprised to see it tested again later on this afternoon.

This isn’t a purely technical price action IMO. The avalanche of evidence on interferons continues to accumulate, combined with competition being dumped out of trials, each day brings us closer to Activ news, these factors could well explain an eventual breakout…

Always found the ‘wish I’d done this wish I’d done that’ sentiment curious. Hindsight is a wonderful but also very toxic thing in Investing.

As I get to know the companies I invest in, so the price action begins to acquire its own curious rhythm. You learn how it behaves and can predict it quite often. That doesn’t mean to say, for one second, that I contemplate trading my shares.

I think if trading is the objective then you could live with yourself if you missed the boat when ‘that day’ comes.

As a long term holder who believes in the stock, has worked really hard to build a position…could anyone fitting that mould live with themselves if they got caught out? For the sake of a few extra shares? To each their own but for LTHs buy and hold is a mantra for a very good reason…

I suppose the simple answer is because the potential cost of the ‘nanoco issue’ is outweighed by the benefit of pressing ahead with production and investment. Samsung is a colossus of the industry and even a worst case scenario settlement will still be a frustrating cost for them but nothing more…important to keep perspective in mind here, this is David vs Goliath and I doubt very much Samsung are thinking of halting their production lines until a legal matter with a UK small cap is resolved.

Just my opinion.

Had one last ditch top up today. All I can say is it’s a strange feeling trying desperately to add to what you feel to be a dead cert position but equally hoping and praying for that big RNS that totally changes the landscape.

If news drops imminently I’ll be happy knowing I did all I could to build my position. If not, I’ll add more come pay day.

I agree Ndn, don’t be surprised if this pulls back tomorrow. The guardian coverage may give it a bump but really important to keep feet on the ground. Only reason I say that is because BBs can turn negative quite quickly if heady talk is indulged too much and people become angry their investment hasn’t moonshot after being invested for a week. Seen it many a time and it’s such a shame as it drives good posters away who just grow exasperated by the infantile squabbles that quickly emerge.

A quirk with Synairgen is that this share always surprises. Friday’s price action was just that. But equally, we know news could be a little way off just yet. Sentiment driven price action is for traders and shouldn’t be read into too much, as heartening as the polygon news was.

So it’s as you were really! Current SP is nice but equally, be prepared for it to trade within a range that could well be lower than where we are currently sat.