Member Info for BeContrarian

Fear is a powerful thing SanD, unseasoned or I’ll informed PIs can easily get scalped on AIM when they see a falling SP coupled with negative sentiment flooding bulletin boards.
As for bad traders, they get spiked on the way up, and down!
There’s probably a lot more of those sorts than you think, especially in a ‘COVID stock’ like this thst may have a few lockdown investors who are ‘green’ ans likely to fall for the various cognitive traps that markets can set.

Doc, I think time is on our side. Let’s say worst case scenario Polygon are looking to facilitate a hostile, they only have 3 or 4 months to accumulate 30% on the open market before our own trial results are published. That’s a hell of a lot of upward pressure on the SP in order the acquire those shares quickly enough. And then any offer is going to have to be some way north of whatever the inevitably very high SP will be. I just don’t see it happening…

Hey Doc,

Don’t think there’s too much to worry about on that front. Any hostile bid would still need to go through shareholders, anything remotely in the £2 region would be laughed out of the place…not that I see that as Polygon’s strategy anyway, I think they see SNG as being as potentially stratospheric as we do…

As I said yesterday there was something fishy about yesterday’s price action. Activ2 confirmed and still below Activ2 rumour price. I personally thought we would easily see things settle around 200. Perhaps we will see that tomorrow.

Whilst I’m pleased to see conviction from polygon, a few poor souls were parted from their shares yesterday for much less than their true value, it really makes you wonder who the sellers were yesterday other than traders who cashed out having bought in at 130 a few weeks ago…

I have no issue with options so long as they are aligned to performance and business outcomes; these seem contingent on the Activ progression, which I’m fine with.

Where I take issue is companies throwing options round like confetti without any real rationale. It’s situations like that which make a mockery of shareholders. Plenty of those sorts on AIM…

All I can say is it speaks volumes that here we are with Activ 2 confirmation, the great de risking, and yet we sit below the placing price and, even more amusing, the price reached based on RUMOUR of Activ 2 progression.

I would invite fellow investors to reach their own conclusions about what transpired today, and where true value lies…my own theory is that it is some way north of here.

We will look back on this as a great day. Lets not forget Activ would set a very high bar indeed, bodes extremely well for our own trials IMO.

You’re right skeletor. So long as the market has it wrong I’ll keep buying.

Don’t forget- this news will be even more meaningful to the US markets. Could moon shot this afternoon

Get in there!!!!! Rocket ready for lift off!

I’ve always been a fan of Mr B’s pithy investing quotes, and here’s one of my favourites:

‘No matter how great the talent or efforts, some things just take time. You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.’

Feels particularly pertinent when considering the Orph investment case right now. Patience and time needed. But the long game looks great IMO.

Whichever way you cut it, something is brewing. The volumes are up since Friday, the RNS hasn’t produced a negative market response, and 99% of the time, a delay of any description is viewed as a negative. It also seems very last minute to be announcing auditing delays, something like this could’ve been foreseen a while back, so I don’t think the COVID delay theory holds much water.

Call me an eternal optimist but something is telling me news might be on the way. The simple logic to my thinking is that there is a degree of flexibility when posting results to the market, whereas a contract must be RNSd as soon as it’s signed. Perhaps they are hoping to get something over the line to coincide with results and are just finalising a few details first? Just a theory…

Interesting that the SP has breached that stubborn ceiling of 21p and held til end of play. Compared to last 3 months that a big volume too (440k changed hands today) Perhaps some news afoot next week?

Jimbeann is Bronxville 100%

It’s funny you mention it Ryan, as we approached a 10% up close I thought my comments yesterday were well timed; naturally it was sold into at the last minute haha.

In light of the contracts to have dropped recently, I’d say another one in the 7 million range could turn things around. Based on what’s dropped recently, the asking price seems to have risen and I’m hoping that will lift profits too. However, as we know, contracts don’t seem to have produced the desired effect since the bearish trend has taken hold.

The obvious catalysts would be news on imutex. The drifting delay on this very promising arm of Orph is maddening. Lord knows what the people at imutex are thinking it’s almost as if they don’t want to bring their drug to market. Crazy. Any updates there would be enthusiastically received.

The other catalyst is a contrarian view. Getting on with spin offs. The received ‘wisdom’ on here is that announcing spin offs will initiate a drop in SP. I think it’ll have the opposite effect. The spin off thing is creating uncertainty: how much will spin offs cost? How many share will be issued? How much will Orph shareholders be entitled to? The market hates nothing more than uncertainty, and so long as the spin out narrative continues, so will volatility. Let’s get it done, get shareholder value locked in, and move on to the business of really focusing on core Orph. That, I think, is the way in which a rocket will be put under the SP long term, in addition to all the divi shares we will have… :)

One thing I would say is that it’s a shame the ‘CF’ issue has become such a binary thing in many people’s view, and how this is then used as a stick to beat Orph with.

Few would deny that CF has fallen short on occasion. His overpromising has done damage there can be no doubt about that . With the benefit of hindsight, I was guilty of taking many of his remarks at face value. I can understand how that pee led others off but for me I took it in context of a company moving at warp speed and really starting to find genuine success, he was naturally bubbling with enthusiasm and I get that. We all were.

But equally, despite CF’s shortcomings, he is still the man for the job and has really delivered quite the transformation. He also recognises his faults and the last investor meet was as dull as dishwater because he only dealt in objective truths and financial data, a far cry from the gunslinger we saw six months ago but he’s humble enough to listen, learn and change. Big tick in my view.

Is there a little lost credibility to be recovered? Clearly yes. Is CF making strides to address that? Absolutely.

As you know I’ve been bearish on Activ due to the delay. But I don’t think there is much debate about that now.
Got to love how Dr Castro speaks so openly and matter of fact about such critical info that could change our fortunes for good. The first time we wondered whether Castro misspoke, today was even less ambiguous! We may not get news tomorrow, but it’s a matter of when and not if now.

I put my money where my mouth is and topped up.

Two stocks I’m in rocketed today, on, not much.
SNG: 13.5% up
GGP: 24.5% up
GGP has been particularly brutal, getting bludgeoned down to 15p. On that board, it was finger pointing, blame games, looking for a logical explanation to it all. Of course, there was none. Today, one broker note comes out and ‘poof!’ 3 months of eroding losses were wiped out in a single day.

I see something similar panning out here. The deeper in oversold territory you enter, the more violent the reversal when the catalyst comes. Today has been really good for discussing facts and it’s been good to see differing viewpoints, on some we will agree to disagree. But to me it seems plain that whichever way you cut this, there isn’t really a rational explanation for 20p, we are due a significant bounce.

The question is, what will our catalyst be?

Nail on the head halls.

CF should be taking it as a compliment that already, Orph is being held up to the same standard as your average FTSE 100 company in terms of P/E ratios etc by some on here. Such ‘calculations’ discount the potential of the spin outs, in addition to this journey of rapid expansion we are on. Only 18 months ago this was a loss making mess.

If you’re ever in danger of losing faith in this stock, just have a read over the RNS of the last twelve months, and some of the amazing companies we are doing business with. A relative minnow on AIM working alongside some of the titans of pharma. CF is already working hard to dispel the ‘COVID stock’ myth and I look forward to what’s in store between now and Christmas.

Sentiment is in the dirt at the minute but facts are facts. It’ll turn in time.

You could take the view that the selling is in keeping with the broader, inflation based sell off, as utterly illogical and irrelevant as that seems in this particular stock.

However, my contrarian head is telling me some PIs don’t have a good feeling about Activ. News feels long overdue now and I can’t really see what the hold up is at this point.

For LTHs it’s not the end of the world if Activ doesn’t come off, the long game still looks good, and I suspect that’s the view polygon have taken as they continue to fill their boots…

However, I think there is an explanation for the dip. Taking into account my own position, I’ve been tempted to add more but have held off. For those already with a position and looking to add, if Activ comes off then great, my existing investment looks a whole lot better, if not, there’s an opportunity to add more at a big discount. If there are others of a similar mind then it’s easy to see that selling pressure can be created quite easily. As hungry as Polygon may be, they can’t absorb all negative momentum and I do think the Activ uncertainty is beginning to weigh.

I promised myself when we dipped sun 30p that my buying was done and I would ride out my current position until at least all spin outs done.

Today, I just couldn’t turn down 19.9p a share. Absolutely mental price, and so my already very overweight holding got a little bigger.

The market has this plain wrong and I think that testing 20p could be the catalyst for others to see this as the madness that it is.