Member Info for BaysilHope

Hotter than my backyard at 2pm this afternoon. Crude thru $73.6 - the drop didn't last long - says a lot.

Gla

What an opportunity - Tapering will happen, inflation and so on. What a time to get in. GLA. Market deceptacon phase Bull!!

Everyone knows freedom day - PRA 13th July relaxes UK banks divi & cap collar - What mechanism could MM's smash Bank shares, when there is so much positive news going forward. - wait for it - artificially drop 10 YR bond yields after FED Inflation worries and tapering - come on!! - totally side swiping current Banks Q2 trading outlook short term - before banks results, with a totally illogical dreamt up sack of mellar
Next week - US Banks Q2 earnings season with newly relaxed US distribution collar JPM 13th July. Then barc 14th july - NEW Q2 Consensus outlook ?? ! Note - Q1 Cons Apr 21 was NPBT £1.7bn EPS 6.8 - FY 21 £5bn EPS 18.5p = fwd PE ratio 9, Actual was £2.5bn EPS 9.9p - without impairment write backs.,,,,, So IMO DYOR Barc could hit the full tr 18.5p EPS in 6 months - which means full year 2021 more like +£7.5bn or EPS North of 30p EPS = fwd PE less than 5.5 Qcrazy, dive in with an increasing yield - simples and lovin it GLA . Market Manipulation - I feel sick - until you get used to the smell.

Share buy backs for the rich growth companies is an additional type divi distribution. With VODA the conversion of debt means the shares in issue increase but DEBT comes down, and this can be an ever revolving, sometimes static dance of negativity, for this share to advance VODA NEEDS to break out of this cycle of ever turning over debt equity swaps, which is a distraction EPS gets less diluted and gearing falls if they have the cash to settle. To break this, I believe Vantage Towers was spun off, to monetise $14bn of assets and at some time break the narrative of debt saddled company. I can't believe Voda' SP has had no uplift from one of Europe's largest IPO's at all, that's spooky, they could monetise $7bn and still hold control over VT and reduce debt. Considering IT & mobile comms are key to the post covid world, this is a sucker for a takeover, BT over-valued crazy.

Totally agree with the Convertible loan dilution €1.7bn and yet the value added monetisation of Vantage Tower €15bn float never happened, I'm looking to re-load £1.15 then it's a dead cert , each day the SP recovery growth profit margin grows. carry on dissing, enjoying it. GLA . I can't short VODa like you guys - out of principle. Thank you, so try and find some other negative to crash the SP and ignore the annual investment of €10bn in 5G, hog crap & for all shareholders - a waste of time. Thanks for all your enlightenment. Brill.! Waiting for the right pivot price to add. Thx

As good as the DWP contract award is £350m, it is not material warranting an RNS in its own right , so why also announce the upgrade on the 14th and not wait until the 30th Pre Close and bash it all together in one hit.
As an old dog, IMO DYOR it could be it leaves space for other good news to flourish (guess), a double jab of +ve's so to speak, which should mean a Interim Divi announcement , or some sort and pay-out guidance to shareholders for 2021 that show growth. They have the cashflow no doubt - however, SRP has not shaken off the COVID bad press of 2020, nor the inconsistencies in 2020 profit guidance and the results reliance on test and trace. The expansion into the US defence - WBB is a master stroke and not factored into the SP. This is very different company to 2019, far more financially stable, solid, more diverse income streams, just wish Sterling would fall. This will re-rate over time as trust is rebuilt. GLA GN

I've followed Serco for sometime and the Aug 20 crash after 'uncertain outlook remark in H1 results pushed the share down 10% to £1.54, the SP has been very nervous before trading and\or results announcements. The pre close Dec 20 - statement - couldn't reinstate divi's and covid related work would diminish in 2021, held the SP back until March when divi's were restored - £1.37

Since then SRP has acquired WBB $300m from cash\debt high 10% margins in the US and announced significant contract wins, VIVO £3.8bn, DWP £350m, Goose Bay £870m, however SRP is held down at £1.30 despite all this transformational progress and after completing £40m share repurchase and final divi paid. The concern is the fall off of the lost sub deal and COVID related work retreating in H2 . Those tailwinds have been more than overcome with the actions set out above. At £200m recent 2021 guidance generates EPS of around 12p a forward PE ratio of 10.8, possible yield on 3p Int & Final divi 2.3%, looks really cheap with modest downside risk. On the April & June announcements SP hit £1.45, could happen again but should stay there DYOR IMO GLA I'm in.

Forgotten Feb 21 news - never mentioned nor the €8bn investment in new tech - Vodafone makes €2.1 billion buyout offer to Kabel Deutschland minority holders. UK-based Vodafone is prepared to pay up to €2.1 billion to end a long-running legal dispute with Kabel Deutschland Group’s (KDG’s) minority shareholders.
The company disclosed on Tuesday that it has launched a €103 per share tender offer for the outstanding 23.2 percent of the cableco that it doesn’t already own. So far, shareholders representing 17.1 percent of KDG have accepted, valuing the tender offer at €1.56 billion. If the remaining holders fall into line, the value of the offer will increase to €2.12 billion.
“Following completion of the offer, Vodafone will own at least 93.8 percent of the outstanding share capital of KDG,” Vodafone said, in its disclosure. “The cash consideration will be funded from Vodafone’s existing cash resources.”

Why is China thumping the commodity table now - ??? harder than normal? as their economy is ****e scared of a European & US Q3 recovery and a US +$1T infrastructure bill bipartisan on roads, rail Green energy push - Ev's all that they hate. No wonder Copper down, what an opportunity to see through the crap, this is a gift moment next 2-3 weeks until the bill is passed and vaccinations hit herd immunity, at the same time growth is back on the platform of media attention, notice its deliberate absence last 3 weeks. World Iron ore & copper demand will swamp China's deflationary Metal price pressure - next 3-6 months.

If the Shares are paying a 6% divi compared to debt 1.5% what do you repay first, reduce the shares in issue FFS, especially as debt will be cheap until mid 2023 - by then Europe re-opens and fully vaccinated and 5 G booming- repay debt . Look the 4 Amigos - what the feck is your agenda dominated gossip.... please put some gutsy analysis on the board and stop playing the SP swings with chatter - if you want to trade it - be professional FFS No quality of dialogue - where is the analysis. GN
As I said before - Vantage towers - Market Cap not reflected in the SP, i.e leave debt 18 months, low cost - when Vantage Towers Market Cap is +50% above today with investment -then smash it, there's a plan here, not with BT, they got lucky 12% but will be carved up by a hostile Board room beast. GLA - please guys ............................................

Simples, all focus on debt delib, then - Tower next year with increase to 120k towers mast, acquisitions + 5g Good Night . GLA Can't keep cell tech muted forever in a re-opening. NOT IN THE PRICE - Voda debt one way down, maybe be slow but down.

GLA

1. The gasp of an 'ON & OFF day - with made up crap about Barclays HSBC drive the price down.
2. The Inflation Story - Yes will become a major factor - but daily life limiting - World Growth falling off a cliff
3. Ignores the virus & Wow when ready - all is blue.

Not good for my mental health - thank God i ignore cryto.

Always known these manipulated plays but now understand the warnings and magnitude - due to my age had to catch up - for the first time as an elderly person understands the ETP ETF range - suite of offerings - which is difficult when my age group concentrates on their favourite bike was a triumph Trident - Not an EV/ GLA

Did say that in earlier post - GLA

NO mention of Reopening play - only criticism Capex - & reopening play - Especially Europe H2 vaccine rollout - V Towers €13bn asset created, more value can be accessed - out of V Idea, Bought Kable MI, Share buy back Conv loan, 5 G licence acquired this is a very talented driven senior management, successfully negotiating some very difficult MA transactions that will deliver results - and **** is the reward - Bolares. I 've bought more today and the Yanks did the hedge fund damp squib. Not worried - communications is key for going forward and the investment in things like 5G - to be scorned by Goldman is a fecking ploy. GLA GN

I think I read Barc Q1 EPS was 9.9p (40p full year ) with no release of bad debt provisions, last week US CPI - +4% means negative yields are a memory. So if the Investment arm wabbles, the rising rates and Bad debt write back covers this baby - surely, Shirley . The risk is the short sellers in buckets, simple investment for me. GLA HNY .

US Only, Hedge funds up on US since the weekend, haven't been able to sustain a downward pressure on Markets, until now,
Day 1. Fri Jobs report - short of 750k jobs wages pressure - start
Day 2. Mon Tech sell off - create nerves
Day3. Tues China CPI 6.8% & JOLT report 8.1m jobs created - yet unemployed - structural prob - inflation

Day 4 TO Come - CPI US - Continues argument Fed $120bn mthly - Counter productive - rising infaltion
Day 5 To Come US PPI - confirms inflation
Day 6 - US 10 YR Yields could hit 2%

Combo should get a US SP - 10 % correction IMO DYOR And read, read and understand as - if Fed delays too long can't play catch up will rattle - not now next 3 months . Key to US inflation is Wage inflation - not seen for 10 years - look at the data - JOLT +8m jobs - uptake 0.25m = wage inflation time will tell. GLA enjoy. HNY

US Jobs report failure - quick take - Are US low paid workers rather take benefits until Oct rather than work??? If so Short term labour benefit structural problem - wages up, inflation up self inflicted wound. Reminds of the famous Bing Crosby song: Is Inflation 'STICKY@ per se - The song I loved as a kid. Quote
'We're busy doin' nothin' Workin' the whole day through, Tryin' to find lots of things not to do
We're busy goin' nowhere, Isn't it just a crime
We'd like to be unhappy, but We never do have the time
Add then the Tax regime & Inflation
I have to watch the river, To see that it doesn't stop
And stick around the rosebuds, So they'll know when to pop
And keep the crickets cheerful, They're really a solemn bunch
Hustle, bustle And only an hour for lunch
We're busy doin' nothin' Workin' the whole day through
Tryin' to find lots of things not to do
We're busy goin' nowhere, Isn't it just a crime
We'd like to be unhappy, but

IMO DYOR watch US 10yr & short term rates -Weel full of Inflation data - we have a short term problem soonGLA

Agreed Good Luck - stay safe. This will come right in time - never a doubt.

Freepost - New strategy - no doubt your are holding cash - hold more - for in any blood bath - there are more options to execute= far better than getting trapped in a correction SP - state in May - medium term outlook - we win. GLA. From the obvious semi chips , inflation etc Int rates as Yellen eluded to - Apple?? court loss??? - The Co Mkt Cap is the size of the FTSE - one scratch and we are short term exposed. Sidelines for me. Thx - Not forgetting covid risks - Sychelles nearly fully vaccinated - new Indian Outbreak, UK 3rd booster - Why ??/ I'm not short - I'm not that brave - I've withdrawn every sector to minimal, so can genuinely sleep - supply side risks???? , commodities busting highs - Fed numb - Ouch . Hate this.

Let's open up air travel - Market ignoring India Covid threat IMO GLA - sorry had to get this out - Unbelievable Jeff.