Member Info for BaysilHope

In a market that pushes up IAG to 2.12p on'bookings' , Easyjet etc etc especially when the FT warns 20k travel jobs will be lost through Brexit. I personally take comfort in the fact that contrarian pricing is taking place, especially when SP's like VODA, Serco are also down, despite enjoying similar prospects as TSCO - huge upsides. US Stimulus is to pass on the 14th March and soon it will be too late to get in sub £2.20 and get a forecast 7.8p divi within 2 months. It definitely seems the market is 'furloughing' or masking the SP's of desperately struggling companies, i.e. Card Factory (Nothing against the share) , all stores shut SP +100% as it agreed to defer its banking covenants, I could go on ad infin - My risk set does not allow me to venture into those areas and shorting 'contrarian priced shares' is utter suicide. I'd rather play safe and be patient -'All good things come to he or she that waits'. Over time, with 21% less shares in circulation, coupled with improving finances and macro economic backdrop - will reap the desired return - that's in my projections, this year. IMO DYOR good luck. The II's voted for the SD and it is a cash windfall into their coffers, I believe they owe TSCO a debt of gratitude and some loyalty over time, when they get the price they desire to re-invest a part of their distribution. GLA

Morrison falls out of the FTSE & Corp tax hiked in 2023 in today's budget. On the other hand, what a time to get into Tesco. Don’t forget that Morries II’s - that have a Retail based investment presence would prefer Tsco to others at £2.19, especially the potential yield. This demand is compounded by the fact that existing TSCO II’s have had their holdings cut by 4/19 or 21% and are sitting on cash, waiting for this to bottom, encouraging the shorting no doubt.
What I don’t understand is the enterprise Market Cap post SD. Previous £23.6bn was calculated after the inclusion of £4bn pension deficit, pre-disposal, with 9.74bn shares in issue, or £2.41 SP. The distribution was a negative £5bn – cash out, but no account has been taken for the elimination of the £4bn deficit, especially with 60k staff leaving the business with the disposal, so the net reduction is my mind DYOR is (£1bn), or £22.6bn with 7.732m shares in issue = £2.92, after the results highlight the massive positive impact of this transformational transaction upon the balance sheet. So at 7732m share in issue at £2.19 value TSCo at £16.9bn – what a bargin! Especially in consideration that the removal of the requirement to fund pensions for some years - frees up cash for further share buy backs on top of the divi, accelerating investors returns. IMO DYOR. I’ve topped up and will again when it hits £2.10 – no worries. GLA

I've just looked at Ali UK 31st Dec 19 Stats and sales £12.3bn, Net Profit after tax £211m - Pre Covid , Net Assets £2.85bn. so Net margin 1.7% PRE COVID - I don't think there is any transfering pricing of trading to & fro back to Austria. Difference Tesco & Aldi, SCALE & Diversity - Tesco have sold fantastic asset for £8bn - acquired for say £1bn and made more profit than Aldi, Net worth in the UK times 4. This is Not appreciated IMO - then after sale - reward shareholders. Seems to me, most people would like to own Aldi, with its nice colours and simplified stock provision. I know its a game and hold the SP down until, but - if any FTSE Co could make +£7bn on a sale and pass it to shareholders FFS - well done, forget the colours of the Aldi Lidl posters FFS - think big and move on from the past - IMO DYOR GLA .
Then you have IAG - just borrowed another £2bn, deferred pension cons for 6 mths +£0.5bn , income -88% and the shares are up +25%, what the feck is going on??? , - someone makes +£6bn profit on disposal , someone loses £5bn and the rewards are counter init. HNY GLA Crazy..... Time will tell.

IAG & Easyjet up +25% in 3 days on a whim, I could not short this at £9.89 - its a gift , platform blocked it. I'm not the Anti Christ but why is this super charged and real solid companies like Serco unloved, generating cash and making acquisitions. I don't understand, all I know is that this debt will grow as International travel will remain restricted down to the UK variant and poor EU vaccine rollout and US ban and hamstring future trading. The Sp is a joke - sorry and people bookings now forget the 120k dead FFS, multiple variants - reckless - self conceited - no thought for the NHS, fellow human - not a team player - shallow Hals. GLA GN.

This acquisition IMO is surely transformational move - i n how SRP should be reviewed in the City, DYOR , the Sp was smashed after the loss of the nuclear sub deal October ish, since then two acquisitions that more than compensate for that and we are still punished. The quality of WBB is easy to read, to - Acquire WBB, Strengthening Presence in High-End Consulting Services to Defense Markets Combination to expand Serco capabilities in advanced weapons acquisition, program management,war gaming, machine learning,cyber security, and data analytics and mission support services. This is a superior added value move and shows the exercise of cash generated in an exceptional year during the pandemic, TO BE FOLLOWED by a BETTER 2021 post acquisitions. Cash enough to restart dividends and a get a re-rating. DLA DYOR I'm in and have been in since the last collapse. GLA

The Uk Variant is feared worldwide for its +ve transmis - so with Europe lagging behind the UK by 2 months, would UK peeps be welcomed to European destinations so readily. Air travel brought the first and second wave of the virus - surely lessons must be learned. The sector must be supported by grants and other assistance. Can't afford a 25th lockdown, because of a cheap holiday.

It could be argued Tesco business model was over extended in its over global trading reach, together with with too many shares in issues, for a low margin high volume business. Makes sense to re-focus and exert greater control of the overall business and a 25% reduction of shares in issue keeps investor demand keen and amplifies EPS and yield from modest trading results. Medium long term good move. This couldn't be done without giving the II's support - a cash back to facilitate the transition and buy into the materially revised model (so debt reduction IMO was never an option, if long term II' support is to be maintained) . Tesco BOD are right sizing the business in a post Covid world, maximise their current business model/ relative to equity provision costs & returns - which in the medium to long is - IMO the right move. Many less shares always help in a stable profitable business - that was the primary goal, as any further massive expansion of the old business model would be the wrong move IMO DYOR. GLA By reducing your shares in issue by 25% ( or a 25% share buy back) is a massively bold positive move from the BOD and will pay many dividends in the future , sorry for the pun. How many FTSE 100 Co's wish they could do this without massive disruption to their business modelsand negative funding implications. Shows how strong Tesco finances are. So Tesco down, the we get IAG who borrowed an extra £2bn today and deferred the next 6-12 months pension cons, 88% down on revenue year on year and their SP - soars +8% with BOJO plan . Its a mixed up muddled up world except for LOLA. I know where my money is going.

Tesco Mkt Cap now £17.7bn 7.73 bn shares at £2.29 (Was £23.6bn £2.41 and 9.77nb shares in issue, less the £5bn SD thats £18.6bn with no vale set on the £2.5bn pension relief - Now post Cons - there's no surplus shares and a chunk of spare cash will hit the market 26/2 , will the II's be upset? - or thankful for the cash , doubt it's no , will retailers re-invest?? EPS will increase to plus 16p PE ratio based on pre cons 19.6 = thats £3 a share next 6 months as the UK economy recovers. Peeps we are getting played - not a short term turnaround but with 20% less shares in circa - demand will pick up - no doubt. GLA EPS will grow and divi per share. The lower this tanks the more I will add.

Swift post, when you see super cycle - over heat, POO +$63 etc etc - just remember - POO Price - the demand squeeze is masked by the OPEC +10Mbpd cut and the +1mbdy Saudi vol kicks in 1st Feb , there's +10m supply less Shale knacker ed -2 m say +8m waiting , so $100 Poo is not a dream but will take a few hurdles to get to. KSA need $80 so maybe +5mper day drip feeding to lower future inflation concerns. gla Key here is JPM +others control Big Oil KSA up, KSA down , big short, etc so be careful, demand is weak and the stimulus is the big exaggerator stick, I like BP just nervous of all the blown up oil +ves after a massive POO rise, could reverse with one phone call - reduce the OPEC cuts - simples - medium term recovery will be on its way so BP will rise. . GLA. Just think POO is being mega played.

I've sold up today, happy with the return, no gripes if she flies, well done all . Why? On the 28th Jan Sp is just where the SP is now, then Brent was $7 lower and FTSE 3.5% lower , so quip pro quo BP should be £3, even allowing for a 4p divi in 2 days - ex div. The Vacx hope is a re-ccuring lift mechanism and the you get shares like Nat exp up 11% before lockdown strategy with no buses running!? Airport locked down and a world of pain to come with virus variants, POO can't keeping going forever as supply will return. I know the US Stim is end of March and will boost all stocks, I'll be back in before then. These are volatile times and some caution will be rewarded, especially when the true economy hits when Furlough ends. For now - enjoy. GLA all. I'll buy in again at a price that suits. What we don't want is create a high enough ledge too quickly, to trade precariously on thin ice for the shorts to gain ascendancy again as they did from the £3.11 high mid Jan after a crazy rise- slow and steady wins the race. BP will hit +£3.50 - this year no doubt and I plan on getting there, with a much bigger slice - just not yet.

I bought on results day £2.506. so £50k gives 20k shareish, at closing price £2.59 thats £51.8k or £1.8k profit. I'm not selling but going long and no doubt see the SP drop, but the divi, like others on here can help re-invest. I must be honest, I should have sold some at £2.67 but clouded by the US Big Stim $1.9T, UK vaccine rollout and Brent north of $61. I have set aside 10% of my BP holding to weekly trade and hold the rest, like Happy keeps you in the game. GLA.

Hedge funds are turning bullish on oil once again, betting the pandemic and investors’ environmental focus has severely damaged companies’ ability to ramp up production.
Such limitations on supply would push prices to multi-year highs and keep them there for two years or more, several hedge funds said.
The view is a reversal for hedge funds, which shorted the oil sector in the lead-up to global shutdowns, landing energy focused hedge funds gains of 26.8% in 2020, according to data from eVestment. By virtue of their fast-moving strategies, hedge funds are quick to spot new trends.
Global oil benchmark Brent has jumped 59% since early November when news of successful vaccines emerged, after COVID-19 travel curbs and lockdowns last year hammered fuel demand and collapsed oil prices. Last week it hit pre-pandemic levels close to $60 a barrel. U.S. crude has climbed 54% to around $57 per barrel during the same period.
“By the summer, the vaccine should be widely provided and just in time for summer travel and I think things are going to go gangbusters,” said David D. Tawil, co-founder at New York-based event-driven hedge fund, Maglan Capital, and interim CEO of Centaurus Energy. Tawil predicted prices of $70 to $80 a barrel for Brent by the end of 2021 and is investing long independent oil and gas producers.
U.S. shale production will not quickly rebound, given the capital required and debt producers are carrying, lending oil prices support, said Rafi Tahmazian, senior portfolio manager at Calgary-based Canoe Financial LP.
North America’s oilfield services sector, which producers rely on to drill new wells, has been decimated, he said.
“They’re decapitated from being able to grow,” Tahmazian said. “The supply side is broken.”

I'm looking at SSP Group however the concerns I have were raised in articles below & Net Debt (incl leases)
'Uncertainty aside, industry bodies didn't expect air passenger numbers to return to their 2019 levels until 2024, although those in rail might recover sooner.'
As well, it was "likely" that the firm would need to go cap in hand to investors again, as restrictions on HM Treasury and BoE's Covid Corporate Financing Facility increased in May 2021, and due to the reintroduction of covenants at FY 2021, rent deferrals, debt due in 2022 and the time needed to return to management's target level for leverage.
Quote
Overall net debt increased by £208.6m to £692.0m on a pro forma IAS 17 basis, with the significant free cash ou??low in the year of £394.9m offset by the £208.6m equity issuance (net of related fees) in late March.
Net debt excluding lease liabilies at 30 September 2020 (IAS 17 basis) (692.0) but Lease liabili??es (1,349.3) Net debt including lease liabilities at 30 September 2020 (IFRS 16 basis) £(2,040.6)m
GL

When bidding - Synergy\Location - or Location\synergy - there are some Short -ve peeps here, what about theexperienced German partner. BP done good, Shell have yet to reveal a hand. Quote ENBW RNS

EnBW and bp plan to build two offshore wind farms there with a combined capacity of three gigawatts, that is enough to power the equivalent of 3.4 million households.
We are delighted with this auction win in a tough international bidder field. The award confirms that bp and EnBW are the right partners with the right strategy and the right capabilities. EnBW is among today’s leaders in advanced offshore wind technology. In partnership with bp, a major player with international experience in the offshore business, we will once again contribute significantly to a climate-friendly energy future in the UK, which is currently the world’s largest market for offshore wind power”, said EnBW CEO Frank Mastiaux.
“Our bids prevailed for the most attractive areas in the auction that stand out for above average wind conditions and favourable prospects in terms of approval,” added Dirk Güsewell, head of renewable energy portfolio development at EnBW. “We have already been able to put in an advance grid connection application. The combination of the two areas right next to each other also means wide-ranging synergies in planning, construction and operation going forward. All of these factors have a positive impact on the asset value of the planned wind farms.”

GLA

No one - on here has acknowledging the US Stim- scary , pushed BP to 363 June th 2020 - Jimmy says it
I can see clearly now the Oil Gluts gone,
I can see the US Stimulus is on its way
Gone will be the big Shorts - that had me blind...

HNY GLA

With demand - its going to be a bright , bright $60 Brentful day

Maybe something to consider, just passed by the Senate. with Harris & then Good Old Lighting Jo will pass it in the House asap after poor Jobs report . Good to see an honest US President putting $165bn into the vaccine prog, might help Oil demand ish. Shorters need a re-think IMO, 9 days until EX Div will hit the pockets.

Help Please , my broker - I'm a small player wasn't that clear, if I have a modest long term CFD on Tesco going long - I believe in the model, I won't get the 51p divi - a capital distribution as I'm a leveraged position and its a capital distribution - which I totally understand - if true ????? , but how do you get compensated for the 4/19 reduction in your shares post Share Con - so I can't plan. I would appreciate anyone's help to explain. Nothing against my broker, I'm small fry. GLA Ta

Surely, the- 2bn cancellation of shares means Tesco is a tighter Market Cap outfit going forward for the next 10 years , less surplus shares slugging around and more demand ! - after disposal - obviously and a more attractive option after settling the Pension Deficit for some years. As Paul Young said , the tighter the fit, the closer the knit. GLA I'm in have been for a while. LTH IMO GLA

Suspension of services! SP drives up on crazy multiples of elongated future income promises -Yeh you buy in. This CV 9 is world wide sadly and has only started God forbid recently, the whole market is unreasonably over valued IMO. I think the US dragging FTSE 100 reluctantly is all US bull lead as their sales pitch mech is geared to. Once Uncle Sam doesn't smells the coffee 50m Trump supporters ain't going to buy into the election results - Die Hard. IMO All markets understand the Covid and lockdowns run the show for the next 3 months, look at M&B equity 3 days in, DYOR why +8% increase SP on mega -ve news unless the market are nervous trying to bear squeeze. simples GLA

FatP's where do you get the 14 future PE ratio, shares in issue 1.23bn then the buy back of £40m and next year No Net debt Interest savings, eps +10p £165m . Most stocks face lockdown, Brexit border issues will provide a huge long term oppo here as we leave the bosom of Europe . Cash Generation superb - BOD played this divi decision correct given the grave Health situation. We are held down, then you get other loss makers flying on juice - don't make sense. This will come right - as with G4S takeover on large multiples - the market is there. They might have to off load Prison contracts, we have the cash (Not debt) to acquire soon,
Quote - The G4S sale to Allied Universal at 245p a share could benefit more people than just the security company’s shareholders. The Times reported that Allied will soon sell off its government contracts such as private prisons, immigration centres and offender tagging operations. Each would be tempting for Serco, whose shares may respond today. Limited downside Brexit deal or not, will permanently be border controls & - Deal or no deal and increasing govt regs all round post Brexit + increased MOD budget. HNY GLA