Member Info for BaysilHope

Vedanta - need a sweetner to play ball, seems unlikely to stop and CNE get all the cash - Come on DSFIII - Quote
Cairn Oil & Gas India , has a world-class resource base, with a current interest in 58 blocks in India, including the 41 blocks under the Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP) Round I auction, 5 blocks each under Round II and Round III, and two awarded under the Discovered Small Fields (DSF) Round-II in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. With the addition of these new blocks, Cairn's portfolio now adds up to ~65,000 square kilometers, paving way for the next wave of hydrocarbon explorations in the country.

A compromise - let a well resource block fall into a JV for development in the current bidding round, where Vedanta will be involved. Only a guess, IMO DYOR - 2 private equity firms working together (with history) (and not with a Public body) could be part of the solution and entice a comprise, would mean CNE getting slightly less cash but a joint partner with a major O&G player, on a solid project in the gas end of the spectrum. Plenty of drama here, plenty of positive deal making options, a money making opportunity if I ever saw one, given the legislative backdrop, both companies have a chance here to recover some lost ground. GOI need a quick clean resolution to get max price for the bidding round, the 'Timing of the recent progression' does seem more than a coincidence. GLA Both companies would have had the bid details end of June 21.

India are struggling for cash but are asset rich in natural resources but lack some expertise in extracting value. Quote Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan puts ONGC, OIL on notice: Perform or get shipped out Oil Minister Dharmend 30th June 21,Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan on Tuesday put state-owned ONGC NSE 0.95 % and OIL on notice saying oil and gas reserves they hold need to be monetised through joint ventures with domain experts or the government will take them away and auction them. Speaking at BNEF Summit, he said state-owned firms cannot indefinitely sit on resources when the nation is a net importer of oil and gas.
The government has already taken away dozens of small and marginal discoveries from the two firms and auctioned them in what is known as Discovered Small Field (DSF) rounds. DSF offers pricing and marketing freedom to operators, something which ONGC and OIL do not have currently, constraining their efforts to monetise smaller discoveries.
Next of KEY Importance -India's oil minister opens bid round in DSF-III auction - India's oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri opened the bid phase of the third round of Discovered Small Fields (DSF-III) on July 30, and invited foreign investors like BP and ExxonMobil to tap huge potentials offered by Asia's third-largest economy's hydrocarbon sector.
India has offered 32 contract areas for 75 oil and gas fields in nine sedimentary basins covering more than 13,000 sq km in the DSF-III round. India's upstream regulator, Directorate General of Hydrocarbons, opened data for fields offered under the latest round on June 10 for evaluation.
The regulator has fixed Aug. 31 as the date for the closure of bids. The offered discovered fields include 54 in shallow water, 2 in deepwater, and 19 are on-land fields. Together these fields are estimated to hold oil and gas reserves of around 230 million mt of oil equivalent, or 1.7 billion boe. My guess $300m cash - $0.5bn O&G Assets JV & $0.4bn Tax credits, India saves cash we get tax free output - . GLA IMO DYOR

India want a clean cut from this enormous 7 year Finance Act's implications, draw an absolute line under it and a complete discontinuation of ALL future legal claims, which could be many Billions in $US potential damages. So the CNE settlement IMO - can't be viewed in isolation, its the herd impact could be nasty for GOI, although they deserve it. Let's be fair, if CNE get say $1bn by Oct end - in cash - what a superb result for very clever, patient, hard working and courageous management & BOD. Fingers crossed. GLA GN HNY Let's hope common sense prevails, it is noticeable that there has been no direct RNS on negotiation since May 11 CEO address, both sides have ben talking, obviously IMO and trying to thrash this out. sometimes silence - could be golden.

I can't see India backing down on the above, look at the SP it is only baking in the old $300m cash offer I believe, CNE will need to show some kind comprise in order to get the capital lost back and India save face (IMO in an orderly negotiated settlement - you can't bully a sub continent) . This approach should get a speedy resolution to this torrid affair. IMO DYOR. News will out soon, fingers crossed GLA. Then a shareholders vote for a Class 1 transaction I guess. Could all be done (settled) end of October?

I'm gutted I missed the +11% Abnormal swing up in Brent & HBR surge (lesson learned) Why? - then ask why when little global events have changed in 5 days, Global demand weak, Delta, Supply chain disruptions or is it because OPEC Meet 1st Sept. IMO DYOR, S&P 500 has 51 highs this year, (more than Keith Richards) up on the 'TINA' principle. Jackson Hole happening now Fed Powell reminds me of the Mamas & Papas 'California Dreaming' decides to taper now and leave interest rates alone for 20 years, yields could collapse and the MM's use this, OPEC output threat, Global downdraft, delta etc etc and deliver a downward correction of -5-10% in the S&P 500 , clear our (this time Buy on the Dip US guys). This time I will load up on HBR bigtime. GLA I think they did give this a trial run last week in very low August trading vols, next one will be the real deal IMO DYOR GLA. long term I'm in here, just missed £3.15 kicking myself. GN GLA Will double up next time. HNY

Just an aside - Backdrop to negotiations on-going- FYI
India needs $100 bn FDI annually to become $5 trillion economy: India-centric US group
Mukesh Aghi, president of US India Strategic and Partnership Forum, said India needs at least USD 100 billion of foreign direct investment every year to reach its target of a USD 5 trillion economy.
The group made the observation, asserting that a major chunk of this FDI is going to come from the United States.
“India needs to grow its economy from the current USD2.7 trillion to USD 5 trillion. It will need a lot of FDI coming in -- at least USD100 billion dollars a year to fuel that growth,” Mukesh Aghi, president of US India Strategic and Partnership Forum told PTI in a recent interview.
Speed up $1.4 trillion infrastructure plan - India needs to focus on outcome-driven infrastructure spending by charting a 10-year fiscal path for rating agencies. Dedicated focus on building new cities, ports, bridges, high-speed rail and highways will have a multiplier effect on jobs and help reduce unemployment. Projects as part of National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), with capital spending of $1.4 trillion, should be expedited and monitored against timelines. For funding, private financiers, off-balance sheet funding, overseas pensions and insurance capital should be sought, with a quasi-sovereign guarantee.
GLA Not long for news

Last post, if Country business, anyone is to maximise any auction's potential value - you need all the largest players committed and present - simple as - that's why IMO DYOR- I think we will be settled soon - only 8 trading days until H1 I'm in and waiting. I think it will be discounted on the Arb Claim, not to send a free for - all. India have their issues - but financial desperation present oppos to the Global players - NOT CNE historically, they were an easier target. Last point - off to bed - US money will NEVER BE THIS CHEAP - HENCE US GLOBAL PLAYS - lock in solid margin returns at net zero - Win Win Blackrock head on with major investments - you don't feck with. GLA

Indian govt are desperate for material funding $81bn , they've offered CNE through the media $1.2bn - its a massive step foward after 7 years - their economy finances is suffering - opportunity for the global players - and with infrastructure its real assets - not shares, so there is operational leverage, in real time. I think IMO Blackrock will offer a sweetener $1.2bn settlement for CNE and get first mover advantage on India's, high yielding, low maintenance prime infrastructure assets - I would. GLA In parts an option - Better than China Tech and the west would like India to be investible as the third largest ?! in the world. - options GLA - What did Newton say - I see further- because I stand on the shoulders of Giants. A Guess only DYOR IMO GLA - A Joke for the Maths guys.

Blackrock & others can take advantage of India's need of $81bn, combined with their expertise. I can imagine IMO DYOR, CNe getting settled $1.2bn and 80% II's agreeing - bribed by a fat pay-out, say 40p sahre - while Blackrock advance into india $20-25bn of prime infrastructure - high yielding target assets i.e Premier Cru! , IMO Air India is an enforcement sideshow, but critical in bringing legal matters to ahead, however the sheer global 'Weight' of Blackrock was the casting shadow over the proceedings, with the $81bn backdrop IMO - Cairn BOD have performed admirably and deserve a material gesture from Blackrock, if this 'Guess' is indeed - anywhere close to reality. GLA. One door opens, another closes - hopefully with $1.2bn + Only IMO DYOR- things change....

Bottom line US awash with Cheap money - markets top heavy, So for superweight Global Investment funds - where can you reduce risk and guarantee a high return??!! AND HAVE A READY MADE DISTRESSED SELLER - NEEDING $81BN.
recent changes in India's tax legislation in part opens the door for investment in India , Blackrock wants to grow its Global Infrastructure fund to a $100bn by 2025 https://www.infrastructureinvestor.com › infra-to-power... sorry not subscribed. Quote Blackrock, BlackRock Real Assets was set up following the merger of the group’s real estate and infrastructure arms and has grown to manage more than $63bn in assets and client commitments.

Free cash - Dry powder still rising According to Preqin, dry powder globally hit US$540bn in 2020, a new record high. Real estate decreased by -10% in 2019, whereas infrastructure dry powder decreased -6%. Dry powder is high, targeting real assets’ higher cash flow relative to the low interest rate environment
Altogether, this presents a stronger investment thesis for the region, given more attractive asset pricing, lower funding costs and diminished competition for assets, as some landlords contend with legacy distressed assets.

No brainer - get CNE sorted and its planes & Boats & Planes for Blackrock with the odd pipeline added in - they have the global expertise and a new head Mrs Valentine Andrews GLA

India are trying to raise $81bn by monetising Infrastructure assets (What a target) - to finance budget deficit - Tax revenue collapse COVID - Quote' Centre to monetize $81 bn infrastructure to boost govt’s finances. The planned sales are in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strategic divestment policy, under which the state will retain presence in only a few identified sectors with the rest privatized.
New Delhi: The union government is planning to monetize infrastructural assets owned by states worth $81 billion (Rs 6 trillion) to help boost the the government’s finances. This will include sale of road and railway assets, airports, power transmission lines and gas pipelines Bloomberg said in a report.
On Monday, union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman formally unveiled the National Monetization Pipeline (NMP) and asserted that “it is important that India recognizes that the time has come for making the most out of our assets.”
It is done via monetization of brownfield assets by bringing in private participation, Sitharaman added. “The entire exercise “will generate greater value and unlock resources for economy,” she added.
What does NMP entail?
Apart from providing visibility to investors, the NMP will also serve as a medium-term roadmap for the asset monetization initiative of the union government, a press release here said on Sunday. It also added the Union Budget 2021-22 laid a lot of emphasis on Asset Monetisation as a means to raise innovative and alternative financing for infrastructure, and included a number of key announcements.
The planned sales are in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strategic divestment policy, under which the state will retain presence in only a few identified sectors with the rest privatized.
The government has budgeted as much as 1.75 trillion rupees from such sales in the year through March 2022 to make up for the pandemic-linked drop in tax revenue. Revenue from monetizing roads is pegged at 1.6 trillion rupees, while that from railways is seen at 1.5 trillion rupees, the people involved in the matter closely said. Power sector assets may fetch 1 trillion rupees, gas pipelines 590 billion rupees and telecommunication assets 400 billion rupees, they said.
Public warehouses, civil aviation and port infrastructure, sports stadiums and mining assets are expected to bring in another almost 1 T r
“The government does own very valuable assets. should see investor interest,” Sonal Varma, Nomura Holdings Inc. in Sin quoted to Bloomberg. “This will be like an asset exchange, where the government sells its infrastructure assets and uses the revenue earned to invest in other infrastructure priorities that it has set.”
The income from the asset sales is key to narrowing the nation’s budget deficit, which Sitharaman expects to be 6.8% of the GDP in the financial year that began April 1, from 9.3% in the previous.
I think CNE could hold an equivalent of a 'Ransom Strip' here, bodes well. GLA

Apologies- this is all i could get- not subscribed for service - just info flashes.

Beijing interferes with Natuna drilling offshore Indonesia in South China Sea

A Chinese ship has been meddling with Harbour Energy’s ongoing drilling campaign at its Tuna block in the Natuna Sea offshore Indonesia. Significantly, the appraisal drilling is funded by Russia’s state-backed Zarubezhneft and the incident underscores the fact that Moscow’s energy interests in the South China Sea are increasingly being threatened by China. GLA

please excuse the editing - but I was researching Blackrock's Global Investment - $3 Trillion I think, anyway can across this article jan 21, sorry if it's old news, but IMO speaks volumes about how India needs to value global investors - I've rushed to copy but points stand out' quote - BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, other Cairn Energy shareholders ask India to honour arbitration award Jan 21 NEW DELHI: Some of Cairn Energy Plc's marquee shareholders that include BlackRock, MFS, Franklin Templeton and Fidelity, have asked Indian government to honour an arbitration award and return USD 1.2 billion to the British oil firm, sources said.
Cairn, which on this day seven years back was first slapped with a retrospective tax assessment, is three-fourth owned by world's top investors with USD 529 billion MFS Investment Management of US being its largest investor with 14.02 per cent stake.
The three-member tribunal, which comprised a judge appointed by India, last month unanimously overturned a Rs 10,247 crore retrospective tax demand on the British oil and gas company and asked the government to return value of the shares it sold, dividend it seized and tax refunds it stopped to enforce the tax.
These investors, they said, have patiently waited for seven years for resolution of the issue and now that an international arbitration award has come, they want it to be honoured and the issue resolved in a time-bound manner. Cairn's international shareholders who hold more than 30 per cent of the stock, in the US and the UK have engaged with their governments as well as the Indian authorities seeking resolution of the issue in a timely fashion.
It wasn't immediately known how many of the Cairn's top 20 shareholders, who between them hold 74.94 per cent stake, have written to the US, the UK and the Indian government.
Two sources with knowledge of the development said the investors have written to the Indian government as well as the governments of their country - the US and the UK - seeking adherence to the award of a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. End - The table's booked tonight!

Some o&G guys needing cash - here we are for some shares. IMO DYOR - I can think of 2 potential acquirers in debt larger than CNE - Can you?? It's like watch with mother....

Which would be £1.75bn or £3.50 a share - instos should have the testies to take it. GLA

Further to my earlier point, 2020 Balance Sheet NAV $1.2bn say 33 % Debt Ok $0.4bn add cash $0.5bn less ($0.5bn Egypt) = $0.4bn available for acquisitions - unexciting July 21. If we get a settlement $1.2bn, Balance Sheet NAV (excl tax & any payout) = $2.4bn 1/3% debt = $0.8bn and cash $1.7bn = $2.5bn less Egypt ($0.5bn) = $2bn war-chest for acquisitions x 5 that of 2020 = $2bn is Material Value in the market place - Offers CNE critical Mass in a transformative industry - game change re-rate due. Take the $1.2bn - if offered - will go a vote Class 1 transaction - Major II's will support it on condition of a sizeable - pay-out just wish they would stop fffing about with the SP and push it forward. IMO DYOR GLA. Interims 7th Sept - so news - any which way but loose soon.

Only briefly, Quote CNE on Egypt Acq'n Debt finance - Cairn, together with Cheiron, plans to finance the Acquisition with a new joint acquisition reserve-based lending facility of up to US$350 million, joint junior debt facility of US$100 million and existing cash on balance sheet. I don't think market liked selling producing assets, pay out spec Divi - then borrow to finance new acq'ns, does seem a tad silly (forgetting The Greener transition). If we get GOI settlement - No debt for the acq'n and a modest re-rate ( Egypt Location & gas - Quote BP Raven Egypt project -
The approximately $9 billion WND development includes five gas fields across the North Alexandria and West Mediterranean Deepwater offshore concession blocks in the Mediterranean Sea. BP and its partners, working with the Ministry of Petroleum, have developed the WND in three stages. Completing this major multi-stage development in the face of many challenges is testament to BP’s LONG - TERM commitment to Egypt and our excellent working relationships with partners and the Government. West Nile Delta will make an important contribution to meeting Egypt’s growing energy needs, by providing a cost-competitive and resilient gas supply from the country’s own resources". Bernard Looney, BP chief executive. It's not the location so much but after $0.9bn asset sales - take on debt to acquire producing assets - is a backward step! GLA

From 13th -19th July FTSE fell 340 points from where we are today 7150- to 6850 ish, main concerns were Delta, World Growth, commodity price collapse POO, metals and surge in bonds 10YR falling 10 basis points and hit 1.12 (S&P also had its corrections falling 2.3% in one day). One month later post record Q2 earnings season, the economic data is far WORSE than feared on the 19th July correction. US GDP miss, China GDP Q3 revised down, Extended US earnings S&P is +2% higher than pre that date, Delta lockdowns etc US Consumer & Retail sales fall and no earnings news for 2 months to bolster sentiment. I'm not invested in the USA - far from it, I'm a local lad but genuinely (other than the Fed constant liquidity is creating an asset bubble) - look at US Housing IMO DYOR. I'm on the side lines nearly across the board - waiting to buy on a bloody big dip, not a US head fake. I could well be wrong but increasing global supply disruptions will continue to put a spanner on world Global recovery, Labour market and inflation. One day soon this will hit someone wanting to clear out the over leveraged US retail investor - short term. GLA
HNY.

Thanks, enjoyed reading them all. GLA

Or other added value acquisitions to the business in no time. end GLA