Member Info for BaysilHope

Hi Banburyboy - I agree with your Interest cost assessment, I rushed mine, it is still an Opportunity cost award to recompense lost economic rights, it does NOT represent Cash paid out. Quickly, IMO DYOR protect capital $1.2bn and allow the GOI the perceived success of saving $0.5bn - to their critics and opposing colleagues, acknowledging the cash costs 'lost' are legals $22m and management salaries say $40m. This settlement can then be sorted quickly. GLA

See previous post for context - Just checking actual costs for management efforts - Note 4.3 2020FYR $5.8m in Admin costs attributable to India dispute - Say 7 years - all in (assume no legals in that) $40m max over 7 years - the possible result - of the $0.5bn is opportunity cost (Diff $1,725m Claim and the $1.2bn non- disputed capital claim - $463m - of which $62m is cash exp which are $22m legals + $40m management time - the balance IMO $463m is not related to cash outlows- but damage and opportunity cost interest and is very negotiable. GLA GN

I've been scratching my head at the differential between the recognised & undisputed capital sum of the claim - namely $1.2bn & the statutory Accounts Contingent Asset value £1.725m. Here are the summary points from the Accounts
Overview outlook - • Continued engagement with the Government of India regarding the arbitration award of US$1.2bn plus interest and costs, whilst all necessary steps are being taken to ensure access to the value of the award for our shareholders.

Note 1.4 Contingent Asset Arbitration Award Settlement Due from the Government of India On 23 December 2020, Cairn announced that the tribunal established to rule on its claim against the Government of India ("GoI") had found unanimously in Cairn's favour. The Tribunal therefore ordered the withdrawal of the tax demand in India and awarded to Cairn compensation equal to the value of the shares held in Cairn India Limited (subsequently merged with Vedanta Limited) seized by India in 2014 and withheld tax refunds due on other matters, totalling US$1,223m plus interest and costs, which is now payable. Interest is payable based on US$ six-month LIBOR plus a semi-annual margin of 1.375%, accruing from 2014, and the costs awarded totalled US$22m. The total amount due to Cairn at 31 December 2020 was US$1,725m.

Strip this down, Interest costs on $1.2bn for 7 years at say 2.5%pa = $210m, legal costs $22m - which do not add upto $1.725bn. So what makes up the $293m balance? I assume damages and reimbursement for management time!! Which could present a grey area in a GOI appeal process. Its a Contingent Asset 'Not Recognised in the Balance Sheet' so no write offs required for agreeing a lessor sum. No doubt the $293m for CNE is a bargaining toll. IMO take the $1.2bn and write off the $22m cash costs, the Interest costs\ or potentially rec'd are opportunity costs and not cash and swallow the attributable management time and disruption, dealing with this issue.

IMO DYOR, so - if $22m legal costs(plus management time) get you $1.2bn that 5500% cash return, quicker the funds are in, next investment can be acquired. grab it. GLA GN. The $1.725m is NOT all Cash expended, far from it and contains wriggle room.

I'm not invested in the US, as I said before, I can't read the markets, UK just bullied by US. Friday - US Consumer sentiment 10 year low, GDP miss by US, China July data very poor and S&P rises to nearly a new high!!!!!!1, despite global growth worries and cracks in the supply chain (China Delta) , where inflation could be sticky. FOMC minutes Wed 18th, the sooner the Feb stops printing money on top of a $1T infrastructure bill the better, get back to normal economics. I'm following HBR closely but will remain on the side-lines until some order is re-established, while general global volumes are weak for Aug & sept. For Rookie1 - The comet is called Bennu, NASA have a mission there now taking samples, to return to Earth 2023 - danger its a while off yet, no concerns. I'm not buying US 30yr treasuries though and have reallocated my pension strategy. GLA Bennu Discovered in 1999 - they wouldn't send an orbiting spacecraft and another experimental mission to deflect an alternative asteroid so soon, would they ???.........................HNY

I really enjoyed the Indian panel's discussions and views and Cairn was mentioned a zillion times, especially the pressure they have delivered in changing IG policy views. Appreciate that - I would never have found that.

Thanks GLA

US Inflation +5% PPI +7% US Housing +23% - China growth downgraded, Supply shortages - inflation persisting - Delta variant rampant - IEA down grades World Oil demand - Comet Benu 2031 on course 0.5km wide collision - HNY - Yes lets get new highs obvious Init! Crazy GLA

Major Divi list BP Shell Exxon - including RTZ last day for divi's tomorrow, long wait till Q3 news, I'm out, HBR are hedged too low for me $58, will wait and see, growth slowing, US Inflation +5% IMO US Market too high Pre Jackson Hole - Taper\ Inflation tantrum brewing, I've moved more to cash, I like HBR but reduced my position from small profit. Seems strange to me US & UK are at highs when Global growth has peaked and Q3 hampered by Delta, supply constraints, inflation and potential US 10YR yield increase, leading to rate hikes quicker than they think IMO DYOR. On record profits US banks UK Oilers, Glencore RTZ have had stagnant SP movements, despite divis cashbacks etc - short term - China & Asia's growth are floundering - supply - inflation - Delta . To quote a legend Peter Gabriel Genesis Me - I'm just a lawn mower, you can tell me by the way I walk. GLA - I think a 5% drop in S&P 500 pre Next Fed meeting > than a 5% hike in the FTSE 100. GLA. The only things that goes up in a relative straight line, are divorce, Global Human Mortality & World temperatures. HNY

I'm sending Prince Andrew out there next flight. Can't fail. GLA

In Accounting - Consolidations is an amalgum' of various subsidiaries results to form group accounts, group reserves- different to --. Legal distributions - in the UK rely on a 'Single legal entity' known as the Holding Company. That Co, has to have the cash and Positive Net Reserves to pay out. Group results - from an accounting point of view & is a mathematical exercise in its creation , you can't pay a divi from 'Group reserves' I enjoyed the creative space with consolidations, as any beanie will add - with a bit of Van go magic - i was OK when younger!! , what does the Bank want to see ish!! your honour, what's an 'exceptional item' accounts wise or extra-ordinary item in the accounts disclosure - in my mind 3 days expenses on the job GLA HNy

UK law states you can't pay a dividend from negative reserves, so to I believe in parts of Europe. It's all about the holding Company position of solvency and tax status and cash. Imagine I'm Glencore Australia with $10bn EBITA and the Glencore Global Moon venture $20bn loss on Write downs NOT CASH Impairments - group reserves ($10bn) can't pay a divi, but legally the Holding Company - with cash & solvent and can prove it - has cash from ops positive Net profit with cash can pay-out circums permitting - not great but do-able. After the Loan Conv subsidies buy back. this will fly.

I'm seen some warped reality posts on here, cost of debt crisis?? Vodafone go for the conversion loans as it has an unwritten deal with the MM's to buy back cheaper than the conversion price. The Market made €1.1bn profit for Voda last year and to my reckoning is making another €0.5bn NOW in this discounted buying -repurchase spree. So please guys TELL THE TRUTH!!!! FFS. This truth distortion here is unbelievable, Vantage Towers has created a£13bn spin off with another multi billion spinoff on its way - Fintech M pesa, never mind 5G. Read the accounts - see notes on 2021 prelims - Market to Market profit. They can repeat this, when conditions allow - because they have critical mass. So on a €3bn loan they MADE €1.1bn!

Voda 2021 prelims Net financing Costs
Net financing costs decreased by €2.6 billion, primarily due to mark-to-market gains of €1.1 billion (compared to losses of €1.1 billion in FY20). This was driven by a higher share price, causing a gain on options held relating to €3.8 billion of mandatory convertible bonds. Adjusted net financing costs decreased reflecting net favourable interest movements on borrowings in relation to foreign operations.

Been in old PMo for years - like new set up but concerned that there could be a modest correction coming
1. US GDP 6.5% Est 8.4% US tickers down
2. FTSE 100 & S&P 500 at highs but volumes low
3. China Delta variant growth downward revisions - will affect POO
4. Stagflation & passed peak growth going into Q3
5. Amazon & US Tech Q3 slowdown etc etc etc - after earnings beat shares down - that worries me for all shares & China tech crackdown.

BP down today, HBR up (forget FTSE 250 jolt) which have hedged large Oil output at $58+ we are up? After 2 profit warnings - BP beat estimates -& seriously ups investor returns -I think HBR will be a winner but up against the the Oil majors Q2 trading performance will get smashed. I'm too cautious at this price - but looking for a bargain - I'll wait. GLA

Did you listen to BP CEO 23min video 14th July with Alix steel on Asset disposals and all. Please before posting utter fake news ... I see the Vostok project is expected in 2024 to deliver 500,000 barrels a day, rising to 1 million in 2027 and peaking at 2 million. No wonder BP will not sell its 22% stake, as I do not expect BP under Looney to be doing such projects. GLA Same for FID om green. Ineos is a great company but they will have their emission work legacy no doubt.

I tried looking at consensus - Q2 in the BP ADR and glazed over a tad, FT states 0.09 cents, which is $1.8bn underlying earnings I believe, 20bn shares in issue ftse 100 my basis point. Full year 0.50 cents of circa $10bn underlying profit per se. Q3 is building up to be a storm, re-opening and post Q2 Maintenance. Q2 could beat the analysts- given that last strength of POO and nat gas- fingers crossed. Guess $2.2bn but more important +ve cashflow +$0.6bn

Q2 should be solid given a 40% in reduction in debt costs, posts a $20 increase in POO and annual cost savings of $2.5bn,despite maintenance and disposal lost production, cashflow should be positive even after GOm payment, share buy back and redundancies. DP is lower that at the start of Q1 run up results, yet oil up hugely. I remember when the 2020 results RNS was pub;lished - 2nb Feb Brent $53.45, Sp fell to £2.50 after a $20bn write down....... Net debt high 40's bn, How are we £2.92 now? - fear of the results i guess, after Q1 caution on cashflow post GOM. BP is flying at $74 Brent see Looney's interview 14th July with Alix steel. Everyone mentions sales volume fall 40% by 2030, no-one mentions margin increase by +20% 2025 FFS - I'd rather higher margin less volume quality - lower risk business model - than a volume free for all. Profit sanity, volume vanity. GLA I was impressed with the guy, given to date actions, I think this guy is an understated winner. DYOR IMO GLA

If you plot BP share price against WTI & Ftse 100 you get a descending wedge, WTI rough average APR 61.7 may $65.3, June $71.3 & July increasing for Q3 $72.7. At its collective relative height - WTI $62 BP £3.17 & FTSE 100 7043 17th May - score 1.69. Thurs 22nd july - score 1.32 fall of 15% - BP 2.84 WTI $72 & FTSE 6998. Bottom line, today with WTI reaching $75 - FTSE recovery to 7150 in a few weeks results driven UK PLC - BP should be North of £3.48. This disconnect that started 2 months ago could reverse sharply before Ex Div 12th Aug. GLA - I've added. The MM's have held back all Oilers US - even when Nat Gas is flying was $4.13 at one stage - bodes very well for Q3 , when BP maint'ce is finished and no GOM payment - 3 months of Raven uptick even after disposal 10% Q1 etc , huge cash flow plus the commodity trading side must be flying in this enviro . DYOR Why £2.92, when £3.37 mid June - I know Delta variant but still re-opening is happening and world recovery, especially if US stim packages are passed.

Thx to you guys Voda profit from debt conversion - quote'
Net financing costs FY21 FY20 Reported €m €m change % Investment income 330 248 Financing costs (1,027) (3,549) Net financing costs (697) (3,301) 78.9 Adjustments for: Mark-to-market (gains)/losses (1,091) 1,128 Foreign exchange losses 23 205 Adjusted net financing costs1 (1,765) (1,968) 10.3 Note: 1. Adjusted net financing costs is a Non-GAAP measure. See page 40 for more information. The FY20 adjusted net financing costs has been aligned to the FY21 presentation which no longer excludes lease interest. This increased adjusted net financing costs for FY20 by €330 million. Net financing costs decreased by €2.6 billion, primarily due to mark-to-market gains of €1.1 billion (compared to losses of €1.1 billion in FY20). This was driven by a higher share price, causing a gain on options held relating to €3.8 billion of mandatory convertible bonds. Adjusted net financing costs decreased reflecting net favourable interest movements on borrowings in relation to foreign operations. Look guys post balanced rational posts not skewed cr............... ffs go short elsewhere.

Still ignoring the upside & negativity - Go Short IAG FFs

UK based Wise - a Fintech float - valued at £13bn has 3.7m customers and transacted £16.4 bn volume and £137m Rev last period reported , Voda's M-Pesa 40m customers and $63bn transacted Q1 - this has critical mass and 10 years operating experience and Africa First mover advantage - between this potentially floating DYOR & IMO and with vantage Towers - goodbye debt, the Growth here is hidden, took Amazon 14 years to get a profit - all the time investing in infrastructure. Voda is Not and Never in a million - will be close to a fraction of a US Tech stock, but the investment value of its striking arsenal of differentiated assets - is hidden in the Balance Sheet and with Mr Read add to Investors value and has the cashflow to fund this and partner with UK banks, anyone globally . GLA

Watch this space with great interest.

Can't post the link- but good read today FT - throws a different light on the hidden value of this company which is way undervalued by the shorting community. Will change, as we become evermore reliant on telecom technology and others will see the M-Peas success and partner Voda. Simples - Nobody has mentioned FINTECH - the growth story......

Barclays published Analysts consensus for Q2 (14th july ) forecast Q2 NPBT of £1.7bn giving an EPS of 7.9p, then FY 2021 £6.4bn, 2022 falling to £6.1bn and 2023 £6.5, EPS range 22-25p - giving a PE ration of 7.5 worst case, the consensus basically puts barclays under a fire blanket of doom, note that current 10YR yields call into question the global recovery. A good barometer of Global demand is Oil - fell to $67.9 19th July now $73.6.
Barclays SP was cremated after the Q1 results as it did not release any credit impairment reserves- (they probably have $4.5bn surplus up the sleeve by year end) and the SP never recovered in 10 weeks , so IMO II's can load up cheaply. If Barc reverses say £0.75BN of impairment reserves Q2 that would give another £2.5bn NBPT but Credit Card trans vol is up 30% on Q1 and Global IPO's still up so £+2.7bn would be a dream, now the divi collar is lifted. That would restate FY 21 from £6.4bn - to more like £8.5bn +32% on consensus and a FY 2021 EPS of 35p ish giving a current PE ratio of 4.7 FFS, the 2022 & 2023 forecast ignore a fully vaccinated world and 10 YR yields rising to 2% - Grossly undervalued. GLA - Short squeeze coming.