Member Info for BaysilHope

Sorry for any confusion, I'm long on UK Banks & The Us punters will buy in - BUT after a US reset & its long time overdue - let the hedge funds clear out and reset - I think the S&p 500 is due a rinse and then repeat. GN GLA

Agree with your view markets are over valued short term. Last time S&P retraced -5% was end of Oct 20 - 6 months over due that just happened curiously before the VACCINE announcement 9-11th Nov up 300pts in a week. The likes of Apple falling after blockbuster results smells of a reset. Europe due to open up in say 6 weeks, US stim & recovery (very sad with India obviously and the world needs to react asap) - next 2-3 months will be interesting - hoping to get Barc at discount - short term, sold Tues part and back in £1.7522. IMO DYOR - I waited a tad for the results and within the £2.4bn NPBT - there will be normal trading imbalances - However you bake the cake - 9.9p EPS tastes wonderful & stands out to me with no impairment write back, with UK +6% GDP to come and UK opening up sometime soon, will sort matters and +£3.6bn Mortgage lending Q1. GLA HNY Come on US reset - now is the time Sell in May etc etc before consumers takeover.

GLA, always amazes me when press concentrate on Credit card 22% drop in income say 220m, yet have not released £1bn of impairment reserves like others to support profit. Probably £2-3bn up their sleeve barring another lockdown. Great set of results good FT article.

Don't know where to post this but I hold Tesco and added at £2.20. I've watched the colour of financial language these last few days and stats and state the following - IMO DYOR no edge to this - as I've moved to more cash.
1. Big Tech US Earnings season- this week - Peak demand - Great way to drop the US Market apre-ski
2. Biden 18th Stim package - tax the Wealthy US for health Care - Agree but we took 50 years on this not £1.7t in 3months - will impact US equities - overwhelmed and can't forecast EPS & Futures PE's with Tax increases - biggest change in 40 YEARS & S&P unchanged ????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
3. US Corp tax rate & loop holes - Big Tech = Apple $1.5T Makt Cap - should pay $80bn tax not STOCK BUY BACKS - IMO
4. Surge in Crypto worldwide asset allocation (Whilst FED keeps Int Rate low) - too much money swashing about on volatility - potential to accelerate disrupting \ any Equity MARKET!!!!!
5. S&P at All time High - can it go higher? - With Tax increases US Corp & Wealthy - reducing future EPS if no loopholes??
6. FTSE near 7k limit - can it push higher?/ - IF there is a US correction???
7. Commodity Inflation - Copper\ Oil Wood - Precious Metals - One way upward trip with World demand & Crop prices
8. Interest rates Q2 -4 pressure
9. Auto & tech - CHIP shortage - Ford cost $2.5bn
10. Sell in May and Go away
11. US Stocks - Q1 80% beat forecasts average reaction down 20pts
12. INDIA CORONA VIRUS NEW VARIANT - as really sad and distressing this human catastrophy is - it can hit all our phyiscal well being. World needs to jump and support this as a 'War Zone' now. Throw all support to help India.
13. Peak Rate of change - in US corp earning compared to deflated Q1 2020
14. S&P up +80% since pandemic. Peak Rate of change priced in?
GLA - I needed to get this off my chest - Tesco is a quality defensive stock and I will add at suitable pricing. GLA - I may be blabbing - but I'm genuinely concerned here and needed to share it. If i'm totally screwed up - no harm- this is NOT a Deramp of Tesco whatsoever, just a global equity reality check. GLA I can sleep now. GN

Been in HSBC a short while, failed this week - by my inexperience to notice the descending push on HSBC - when the global finance Market MM use the Credit Suisse Wang Hedge fund loss as an execution excuse to bank shares. Then point noticed - this week the following:
1. FT Article criticising HSBC move to Asia top execs
2. Next day HSBC manager has an heart attack - no offense or malice by me.
3. Evolution whatveer paint HSBC offices - never mind a $1trillion move out og/ stop fossil fuels
4 HSBC wont use BitCoin as a currency or whatever
5. Yet Credit S lost $5bn needs capital Morgan Stanley lost etc + JPMorgan on Europe breakaway soccer league
6. Citi Bank & all US moving to or expanding in ASIA FFS
When a company share gets targeted like that - a. There's a problem before results, or B they want in cheap. I'm in. GLA

I hope Biden hits the FANNG mob hard with fair and proper taxation, they've got away with murder for years,especially with Ginger balls. Now with the true extent of pandemic costs known and the Tech super profits, they should now pay an equitable share - country debts worldwide too high - not to tap into to these tax jokers. GLA.

Summarised Dividend Research - 2020 Quote' FTSE 100 dividends are forecast to fall 24% (£18bn) in 2020, according to AJ Bell.
The investment platform’s Q3 Dividend Dashboard shows that 35 firms have cut dividends for 2020 with Shell, HSBC and BP topping the list. Nearly 500 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange have cancelled, cut, or suspended dividend payments since the start of the year.
The research, by GraniteShares, an ETF provider, highlights the dividend black hole that has emerged in 2020. The firm found that 493 companies between 1 January 2020 and 23 November 2020 have taken action on the dividend front to shore up balance sheets in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. No segment of the market has been immune, 51 FTSE 100 companies, 115 FTSE 250 companies, and 149 AIM-listed companies have cut, suspended or cancelled dividends in 2020.
UK equity income fund managers also caution that, while they expect 2021 to be a better year for income investors, dividends for the UK market as a whole are not going to return to 2019 levels.
Blake Hutchins, co-manager of the Trojan Income fund, notes dividends for the UK market in 2021 will be “lower in the future (compared to 2019 dividend levels), but at more sensible levels”. He expects the biggest dividend paying stocks to rebase their dividends (NOT TESCO - THE opposite 2bn less shares make up the divi base) , which in turn will result in dividends for the overall market being lower. NOT TESCO after a £5bn Spec Div + yield up.... Firstly, data from Winterflood to 9 November shows that 47 dividend announcements have been made by trusts since the end of March, in which trusts have either cut, suspended or cancelled income payments to shareholders.
Secondly, AIC data from last May showed that 249 investment companies were paying income. Therefore, the number of dividend cuts or suspensions by trusts equates to just under 20% of those that pay dividends. End Quote Tesco is a STANDOUT investment... So why not invest in Tesco, trusts, pension funds etc etc. DYOR IMO shares are held down, pre results - so II's can recover the 21% shares lost in the consolidation and reinvest cash they are not getting form Shell BP of HSBC, which will leave 2bn less for everyone else. GLA
So my boy, carry on. (Just got Zulu film in my mind sorry.)

Answer is NO, Fecking no. Appreciate & digest. GLA - I'm enjoying the 3-4p daily swings keeping my LTH in tack. Today £2.269 out +£2.292 HNY

I shorted this stock in Jan 21 when the new variants emerged, NHS breakdown and massive national lockdown (I know they still get paid) - too my huge cost. I have waited for the results deliberately and bought in to recover my earlier stupid losses. My last purchase today was at £3.002 - I'm holding on until I recover my position, I under-estimated how good this management team is and the results where far better than I dreamed of - debt down solid cash and lockdown easing next 2-3 months. One happy redeemer. GLA Only +35p to go!

Sorry LTI, What I meant (Under cover of darkness). Iceberg orders are large orders that are split up into lots or small sized limit orders. ... They are typically placed by large institutional investors to avoid disrupting trading markets with a single, large order. Agreed the amount allocated is in advance. GL

There she goes again
Racing through my brain
And I just can't contain
This feeling that remains. The LA's
Couldn't stop myself. GLA

Hi Svend, Back in Apr 20 Tesco was £2.17 and maintained its divi when others failed, we hadn't sold Asia so the $5.7bn wasn't realised in the results, yet Tesco Mkt Cap 9.9bn shares was +£21.7bn. Quote 'Savers' lifeline as Tesco mulls £550m payout: 220,000 small investors in line for dividend. 'Millions of savers will also benefit through their pension fund, with Tesco one of the most widely held stocks. Banks were last week ordered by the Prudential Regulation Authority to scrap dividend payments in order to conserve capital so they can lend to small firms and households. Quote 'The disposal was unanimously agreed by the Board to be in the best interests of all stakeholders -The disposal will further simplify the Group, enabling a stronger focus on driving cash generation and returns to shareholders from our retail businesses in the UK and Ireland and in Central Europe'. So all this - With total Institutional Investor support, who have had a WINDFALL payout when divi's dried up the most in living memory. SO THE REWARD - at £2.20 and 7.7bn shares Tesco market Cap <£17bn, a £5bn drop in MV, despite an increasing payout in the pipeline, no pension deficit for many years (with 60k less staff) and business on the up??!! I think the II boys are seriously light on Tesco at the mo (IMO) and have been slowly quietly adding their positions under the cover darkness hidden using the UT dark arts DYOR. This is no way to reward a BOD - who have played a straight bat, complete II consultation and delivered a £5.7bn profit of disposal in the year and are increasing the payout FFS. I'm in and will not suffer FOMO syndrome, I might have the old fretful night however , but thats part of this frustrating job!. . GLA DYOR

Nice to hear from you, hope all is well with you, your family and portfolio. Stock choice is more difficult now than ever IMO, so much volatility and valuations travelling in the most extreme macro economic times for decades. I've gone for yield and the 21% reduced provision of shares which should extenuate trading performance over the next few years., in terms of EPS PE ratio, yield and market Cap - this should be less risk and more moderate growth than other probably more exciting options ( maybe a tad boring until II's wake up) - fingers crossed. GLA

MRW is a good company no doubt but why switch? Tesco just made a £5bn SD form earned profit on disposal, which is greater than the entire market Cap of MRW (and don't get the credit for such a deal) , they are the 13th most shorted share and could fall out of the ftse. The 21% share buy back I call it, is no different to Warren - Buffett is buying back more Berkshire stock this year after record $25 billion repurchase in 2020. It will manifest itself in a higher SP, after the II's take out all the cheap shares of impatient PI's, distracted by the constant SP rise in COVId financially challenged companies - we know who they are. Tesco would have run this £5bn SD scenrio via II's as the most efficient utilisation of cash resources for the longer term - to get the optimum investment support. IMO won't be too long before things turn as the UK & US stimulus lead recovery gathers momentum and we emerge from lockdown at key milestone dates. There are only weeks not months to cement a position here at bottom prices. It will be interesting to see how MRW results pan out on Friday 11th Mar .IMO DYOR GLA

There won't be a 7% dilution, this has been in the public domain for 2 years, it is extremely clever funding quote FT Mar 19
Vodafone’s equity-neutral mandatory convertible bond aims to pull off a trick: raising bonds which accountants and rating agencies view as equity rather than debt, but which shareholders will not treat as a fresh stock sale, diluting their existing holdings. This piece of financial engineering has already achieved the latter part of this aim: Vodafone’s stock rallied as much as 3.3 per cent on Tuesday, rather than falling as it typically would if a new share sale were announced. Mar 19.

Vodafone said it expects the mandatory convertible bonds, excluding the value of coupon payments, to be accounted for as equity. They are scheduled to convert into shares in 2021 and 2022. The company said it could buy back shares to mitigate dilution and fund the purchase by issuing hybrid securities. GLA How can a €15bn IPO be treated as negative other than by serial shorting, does offer oppos though. Voda Net debt is €49bn after cash.

The Sp grew all day friday, first time post SD, even when S&P 500 dropped, I jumped back into ITV thurs after it dropped, thinking TSCO was flat or drop further, cleared some itv midday ish - missed Friday first thing oppo at £2.178. I don't have enough tsco at the mo sub £2.20, SP didn't drop late afternoon as I hoped. See what next week brings. ITV results 9/3 will fully close position then add tesco. I thought with over 50% of Tesco owned by II's and no support so far - it would flag sub £2.20 for longer? Next week will tell. GLA S&P 500 strong finish Friday night, however you can't tell what games they are playing with yields in the US. The fluctuations are wild and concerning. Stim Bill final 14th Mar, if passed. Busy week ahead.

Hi Rockonuk01,
Yes, I use CFd's if I want a relatively short exposure to a particular position, i.e I was lucky when BP fell 17p on its results day, that was a 2-3 week max for me. Tesco is a more longer term position for me and I want the yield in the background, which is unusual for me. Yes I make use of CFd's cautiously , I 've been burnt a few times though but they are very useful to get solid exposure for a given short term oppo. GL

Hi Mike,
Thanks for your reply, in answer to your point, as an old bean counter I - IMO I would look at the double entry relating to the £2.5bn bank payment, firstly reduces cash on the Balance Sheet, secondly it reduces the pension deficit liability on the Balance Sheet , the cash does not leave the Tesco entity unlike the SD, where the cash physically leaves the Tesco entity as a distribution. The £2.5bn cash now sits in the pension fund yes, not available for Tesco to use, but does positively eliminate the Pension deficit liability in the Balance Sheet - improving Net Assets (Note 18 or 20 I believe). IMO this fact is no appreciated in the Mkt cap calcs , its a redirection of profit earned on disposal within the business entity and should get full tax allowance (if I'm correct) set off any profit on disposal for Asia sale. . Hope that helps. GL. On another point of distributions, what I like is the increase in the final divi to 7.8p on 7.732m shares costs less than the 6.5p? on 9.78bn old cap. Smart move.

Hi Mike,
Thanks for your reply, in answer to your point, as an old bean counter I - IMO I would look at the double entry relating to the £2.5bn bank payment, firstly reduces cash on the Balance Sheet, secondly it reduces the pension deficit liability on the Balance Sheet , the cash does not leave the Tesco entity unlike the SD, where the cash physically leaves the Tesco entity as a distribution. The £2.5bn cash now sits in the pension fund yes, not available for Tesco to use, but does positively eliminate the Pension deficit liability in the Balance Sheet - improving Net Assets (Note 18 or 20 I believe). IMO this fact is no appreciated in the Mkt cap calcs , its a redirection of profit earned on disposal within the business entity and should get full tax allowance (if I'm correct) set off any profit on disposal for Asia sale. . Hope that helps. GL. On another point of distributions, what I like is the increase in the final divi to 7.8p on 7.732m shares costs less than the 6.5p? on 9.78bn old cap. Smart move.

Morning Stormer, I missed AV and a big mistake, I have limited funds and I don't pretend to understand Gold Pur etc, what I did go for in a limited way was ITV and BP (modestly) and am now out of both, too early unfortunately, never seem to get it right. Good luck with your portfolio - hopefully some of our shared investments get a lift., next few months.