Member Info for BaysilHope

I get the HBR message, it has the output volume (potentially PMO never had & TLW are just finding out - hard to support debt). We know at $20 BOE - maintenance will be postponed for obvious reasons and HBR are playing catch up =- at some cost. My very short term concern is NOt HBR but the market. Both US & China global growth are suffering under covid, supply side disruptions and withering US fiscal stim. If I launch into HBR now, and we suffer a 5% correction - as seen on 19th July when HBR hit 3.10 I 'll be fecked off.. I think - the US & FTSE 100 need a clear out - then I'll add big, after the 23rd and the results are out and better understand the true trading results in detail. As we all know, if you're going to have a bad one - get it done out of the way and then its up. US market - really does make me worried short term. Correction long overdue - then there's the Jobs report miss - huge - when will that find its way into matters. GLA

Look son I've been investing in PMO before your time, made huge cash when Oil hit $10 sorry for the old board, really don't need you to explain to me the metrics, My man is Pleebs, - FYI reminder - we are going into H2 - 2 profit warnings - the bulk +$650m Capex to come - get that $650m capex & what write offs into H2 with 20% lower output - son I think you are raving up the SP boys partying baby - It will happen in time - but not your time scale with +20% Shares hitting the market so soon. Just get real. FFS GLA

Never said $2-3bn - said 2/3bn twiit GLA

I can't remember the last OIL RNS that the SP went vertical. On the assum - they can't say too much - in Negs, the pure trading results will be puny - I'm into CNE - great Co - but as EC states - fight on the land, the Sea and the beaches mentality worries me. A 2 year delay here and we back into the cash Shell No growth era. GLA - I'm holding my breath for a great result.

I'm not sure I'm investing in an Oil Rave party, bottom line gas prices are high - Toul Ain't producing, H2 output - DOWNGRADED FROM A SXXXT H1, FFS - and we are hedged on lower Oil volumes at $58/b - Please normalise that fantastic enthusiasm with a little bit of realism. Yes I want HBR to do well, but it will be on a slower time line. GLA - IMO DYOR - This SP level will get very real just before H1 results - trust me after 2 profit warnings prior and $2/3bn of capex YET TO COME ON DOWN & any maintenance capex unexpected. . Cashflow that is. Lets get the H1 out of the way and then go forward - at a realistic pace, +23% more shares will hit 30thSept so - the market dynamics will materially change. GLA - I'm very focused on reality, just right now. Why are we up 5% today??? !! must ask yourself a tad. Even CNE - with a potential $1.2bn payout from India is down....

A company making +£200m cash p.a - has a value greater than Book value Next Assets - key here is patience. Stockable - Mar 20 - there was no market liquidity - world wide - couldn't been more extreme pressure on any Financially based business - so I don't get your point 'On more Extreme'. Been watching this stock for months, now I'm in and happy with it, was not then tempted by the earlier 21p Divi, now the divi is a solid backstop at whatever reduced amount - giving good yield. Client No's up - so is Assets under management - HL dropped 11% on their Profit warning - and recovered back 4-5% within 3 days - CMC with a plus 29% drop last 2 days IMO that's a tad overdone. IMO DYOR . GLA - Strong cash gen business.

Yep, I remember TLW H1 figures and were shocked that $290m finance costs which is 20% of annual sales! and a debt coupon of 10.25%. If you strip out $133m asset sales H1 - they hardly earned any cash, plus a worry that +$10 a barrel increase - only generates +$50m, when there is $60m bank Refin fees - Jesus, i take a different read on TLW sorry, I worry slightly about our H1 performance - given the prolonged maintenance downtime to be fully costed in, increasing Opex $/b. GLA

EC & Others - Let's do it Brill. GLA - SP £1.97 that's the decider - I hope we win GLA

Great research SEAV - but 31st Aug Date so in the price - I tink deem bones - those dry bones are going to rattle - India still has the last exit plan. GLA HNY - Watching & waiting Next Innings cricket GLA MY mate is a solicitor - Never ever gave an 'Undertaking' its a death collar monetary sentence - on a legal principle, once on, never forgotten - India know this - waiting to buy in again GLA I'm in CNE will add - waiting for the bait. GLA

Took EC's advice - or as my gran said - take profit when the garden appears too rosy!! I Like CNE and will hold a position obviously - short term worries me a tad. If CNE fight this $1.7bn as EC states - it will drag out - I need to work my capital hard - not loaded!! My short-term concern and short-term only is a possible (plausible) US market 5% correction post jobs report I'm worried on US 10YR yield next week - US Mkt has detached Tapering & Interest rates, leaving the door open to drop the 10YR even when tapering is announced , which is not good for Oil - signals No Global growth, so I plan to add on the drop. IMO DYOR Markets say Yes - Data says no - I say goodbye and take some profit on the go. Beatles - seriously I had too large a holding in CNE compared to be normal portfolio If CNE get the cash - this will be a beast and I stand by what I said £4 Cash Shell. GLA I'll add more on the drops. Appreciate the debates, great BB, I'm waiting on some concrete news - I'm covered if we get a fast upward result, but somehow not quite so sure as the continuous SP advances. CNE has had a great run, I'm having a breather until we get clearer line of sight or maybe an India takeover of CNE - gets my vote, I'm banking on it. I still think our CEO has cut his own throat by selling up too early & has limited options leaving the Company vulnerable post settlement- BTW.

Post settlement - any acquirer issuing shares for cash can take our £1.25bn and leverage that up x 3 - take out a competitor in doing so - giving is a £5bn war chest for acquisitions whilst maintaining its capital discipline - as long as the combined acquisitions are cashflow positive. We - are in for a hell of a ride if we can settle - or maybe its safer not to? - as EC states and fight for the $1.7bn and keep my job for another 3 years, imagine CNE's value if they got $1.7bn - WOW. GN Last post GLA

It's more informative to discuss points and appreciate counter arguments, thats the way a great BB thrives and we ALL learn from +ve discussions. MY TAKE ON THE POINTS IMO DYOR briefly

1. GOI taking over CNE quote EC - @no legal issues'!!!!!!! Go back to my original point - How do you evaluate a Cash Shell and CNE would fight against a straight NAV value - 2 year job minimum. Then the precedent means they might have to takeover everybody. Unlikely.
2. Listen to BBB - the man got it straight as. Its easy to issue shares - at discount to acquire a cash Shell - easier than a Rights Issue - a target is easier to sell to NEW and existing II's and you ALSO TAKE OUT a competitor WITH THE CASH GAINED - from the acq'n point of view , a suitor could issue our acquired cash as a divi sweetner to new investors - like Blackrock...MSF and win them over.
3. More importantly - Is the Growth story of the Acquirer that counts which will be > CNE - thats easy - see later point on gearing up cash...
4. CNE post cash - No wind in the Sail - I did say - Post settlement CNE reminds me of a Cash Shell drifting in a Sea of Shark Infested 'INDEBTED' E&P hungry competitors - any new Indian deal with CNE - the timeline for the new cash to be put to work will take at least 6 months to fruition - so we are dead in the water - AND CAN'T DEFEND A BID FFS. See the maths.
4. Cash leverage - Great point Seav gearing up the Cash - thats what it is all about - 3:1 cash x debt - that also applies to the Acquiring Company - even more so when - After acquisition of £1.25bn cash - they can refinance an additional $4bn debt and double their war chest means $5bn TO THEM for SHARES FFS piece of pixx - so makes CNE TWICE more valuable as they (Acquirer) can - re-negotiate their finance UP UP UP from a stronger position and buy even more assets - as I and Plebs say MOL for HBR. Funds 2 acquisitions -
There's nothing NOT to like - acquiring CNE cash for shares allows acquirer to scale up - double up - exactly the point SEAV was making - but CNE will not be able to defend it. Thats my point.
We are grossly undervalued as a potential takeover target position (after the cash settlemet0 - we have no Immediate Options and Can't defend ourselves - so forget 90p cash from India - double the SP value it!! Thats my +ve take on it.

I'm in the wrong job FFS - trouble was I always had guys who would never pay up after the profits were made.. Our BOD need a plan a.s.a.p or delay the settlement.. GLA

Plebleens - a very respected & knowledgeable investor indeed - read his posts for years on old PMO = clever bloke. Only an idea - Sorry to pick your brains.
Posted in: HBR
Posts: 946
Price: 350.10

RE: oil price06 Aug 2021 15:36
As well as MOLs NSea assets…you know how much these guys love a deal, especially with accretive assets…?
Plebleens
Posted in: HBR
Posts: 946
Price: 349.40
No Opinion
RE: oil price06 Aug 2021 15:33
And with Cairn tax arbitration reaching a conclusion …would be an interesting addition to the portfolio ?

Last point - end - you heard it here first - bottom line demand for cash is huge if you have debt and as I stated - they could NOT defend a bid - Simples . Third point CEO piffed off II's with pay award and SP not convinced with growth path - as previous posters spoke about.. . GLA Last post on it. Added just in case. last point for EC, if they do strive for the $1.7bn challenge - expect this SP to crash to pre- offer levels - like a rock. HNy

CNE valuation 4th Aug say £1.30 = £650m, cash 80p per share - Earnings/ Asset element valued at 50p - this is key - discount to book - NAV was £820m = £1.64 -20% at £1.30 !! Market doesn't value CNE growth prospects basically at 50p.
Post settlement $1.2bn cash- New NAV = $2.4bn = £1.75bn Book or £3.50 share of which £1.25bn is cash = £2.50 per share - so bringing the Market Cap up to book (Not at old 20% disc) means - producing assets\E & P now are valued at £1 Ex cash or +100% their Aug 4th value of 50p. If a STARTING bid came in at £4 - CNE Value £2bn - of which £1.25bn = cash £2.50 that would value CNE E&P at £1.50 or x3 the 4th Aug position or more than the Aug 4th Market cap of £1.30 - thats more than stretched!! - from there on its even harder to defend, as it will be described as the 'Shell' it really is. Goodnight. IMO DYOR GLA Plus HBR are all Private equity players Hummm. Whatever the scenario - IMO this company is undervalued, primarily its potential cash rich position in a sea full of indebted sharks. Which is not reflected in the SP HNY GLA DYOR

see previous for this to make any sense. I'd go on to say, that stripping out the primary earning assets of CNE - so quickly , he has potentially cut his own throat - by severing access to earnings growth, leaving behind a vulnerable cash shell, with no material growth story to defend itself, within an indebted industry for small & medium players.. It will be down to our 80% II's to look forward and find the best way for this business to get back onto an exciting growth path, unless we have one hidden post settlement - fingers crossed. GLA. Anyway - it should be up from here on in. Only IMO DYOR

CNE is trading - for all intents and purposes as a cash shell at the moment, with little actual trading performance to justify an earnings based Valuation, more of a Net Asset cash review. It currently does not have the critical mass of assets to entice a takeover, at the moment $1.2bn. However, add $1.2bn cash into the Balance sheet and our shares go to say -ONLY- £2.75 our Mkt Cap = $1.4bn which is less than our cash holding post a $1.2bn pay out. We would be wide open to attack and couldn't defend a bid on any PE earnings multiple valuation basis. We have no earnings per se - short term. HBR for example have $2.9bn debt, which hampers their valuations and ability to exponentially grow their Mkt Cap. After HBR's SP consolidation to £4 in June, the shares in issue dramatically fell to 925m, a manageable equity base and gives that business - the potential for an aggressive acquisitive equity spring board to launch an attack.
Say a bid came in at $1.5bn or £3/share for CNE shares - with HBR shares valued at £3.70 thats 400m HBR shares issued to take us out, a 50% dilution for HBR shareholders and their debt smashed and provides the bidder with a massive upside opportunity to make further O & G acquisitions i.e MOL N Sea.. The point I'm making - the cash mechanics of the deal would mean HBR get access to easy cash and they have the Balance Sheet capacity to increase the offer without making it unattractive (non economic) accelerate their debt reduction plans by 3-4 years and swallow Egypt for free. Our BOD need to treat us fair!!!! hence i think there will be a keen pay-out on any deal.
Just a thought - I'd say we are wide open here for an extremely 'Indebted' industry - where cash is king. GLA Watch this space....

The best I could get - yahoo finance II's +80% 123 in number - Not subscribed to many Prof CNE related circulars - The bottom line regarding the settlement (IMO DYOR) - Only a guess - One fund managers current years performance bonus is another PI's poison so to speak. News will out soon. GLA . Its the collective fund managers take on any 'India' related risks will dominate proceedings, depending how realistic the contractual offer is. If the quality of the proposed settlement is laced with difficulty - simply fight on, no brainer. GLA

So timescale - allowing for 21days notice for any Class1 vote - it is looking like end of October - fingers crossed. Only 4 more trading days for first Indian detailed update since May 11th CEO's address and then March 21 before that I believe. A long time horse trading & no real corporate internal CNE detail, hence the speculation based upon variable International external News - no doubt GLA
I can see that top 5 major stakeholders on website 3% cut off - I can't get a grip on total II's position, only stuff I have is below:-Name Equities %
Henderson Global Investors Ltd. 11,995,772 2.40%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP 11,832,572 2.37%
Schroder Investment Management Ltd. 10,916,780 2.19%
M&G Investment Management Ltd. 10,864,328 2.18%
Aviva Investors Global Services Ltd. 10,857,000 2.17%
Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management LLC 10,594,000 2.12%
Anybody? just trying to get a feel on total II exposure.

Solicitors have something concrete to work towards now for unlocking settlement - its a paradigm shift away from verbal ploys, towards a positively a written identifiable paper contract solution- markets must take note. . GLA

I have worked over 35 years as an Industrial Accountant, secured many corporate and individual debts in my time (albeit not mega complex ones). Very rarely are matters simply Black or White when it to enforcement . For SME's & consumers its primarily an affordability call and not waste good many after bad on hopeless causes.
When it comes to sovereign Debt, it becomes more complex and the affordability risk parameter can be replaced by (what I call) the Pride risk. Where a previous regime made a bad call and the current people in power admit to that mistake, change the law accordingly (Reflecting actions and not just words) and offers a capital refund. The BOD have to balance the commercial risk of disrespecting the ' Officials in power Offer ' by ignoring it.
There is the real risk of inflaming governmental attitude and force a siege mentality. - there has to be some room to manouvre . The term 'Disrespect' has even greater meaning abroad (working in the Middle East for 2 years) - believe me. As I said before- the SP & II's probably never thought they would be able to get their capital back within 10-15 years, normal time to enforce settlement of a foreign government debt. So $1-1.2bn now is a real boon within 2 months. Even if CNE didn't want the undertake business again with India, it's not clever going into a longer term commercial war with potentially, a top 5 world economy, when they have 1. Admitted the mistake, 2. Offered to return the capital sum & 3. Your top II's have funds in India or see that as a growing opportunity. The marginal gain, albeit $0.5bn - IMO is not worth the pain (nor the missed opportunity cost of investing $1bn in new project s in the next 12 months) or risk waiting 3-5 years for the difference if The US enforcement fails next month, time that could be spent on improving the O&G business. IMO DYOR either way this will have to go to a shareholder vote- no doubt, we'll soon see. GLA That's my last say on that aspect of the matter. On CNE doing business in India - Quote Cairn Apr 21 tribunal. The Edinburgh-based oil and gas explorer, which won a long-running legal battle in December, is said to be offering to invest the $500 million interest payments due. One local report said it would be prepared to invest the entire award payment. So that's not an issue- the entire award!! Could offer that without II backing.