Member Info for BaysilHope

ONE time oppo - One off Cairn energy have nearly - DYOR IMO - settled a $1bn tax refund from India and are promising a 72p share divi - SP held down by shorter's to £1.88 - after receipt of the payout CNE will have £1.75 in cash - per share - After all the gloom of this - What an oppo - CHECK IT OUT - THIS CO WILL BE TAKEN OVER SOON BEFORE THE DIVI - NO BRAINER - DON'T DIVE IN CHECK IT OUT HEALTH WARNING - PS IN AT ACCETABLE LEVELS GLA HNY

Shorters get priority - stinks - this is SP manipulation on a major scale. GLA Nees to be reported..

I've argued with the CNE BB about taking $1.06bn Tax refund instead of $1.7bn for a quick resolution - there are 500m shares in issue CNE so CASH of £1.75 in 4 weeks - why is the SP falling SHORTERS - Get in now - burn them and reinvest in HBR SIMPLES - IF and I say IF DYOR IMO that $700m gets paid out that a 72p divi to put straight back into HBR - or HBR buy it - WIN WIN WIN GLa Just shows how sick this market is FFS>>>

Sorry for the delay in replying - CNE announced $700m dist;n shares go down FFS, limited my transfer to HBR by a few days. I've read your posts and IMO DYOR HBR could take over CNE 75: 25 shares & cash - say CNE £3/share valuing CNE at £1.5bn - on receipt on the India money they should have $1.3bn or £1.75 per share in CASH post India deal. They are then wide open for a bid - until the 6 week later vote on the distribution. If HBR considered a CNA takeover - The +$1.3bn CNE cash acquired = add x 3 leverage up would be worth +$3.5bn to HBR and shoot them to the FTSE 100 and get 50k boepd post CNE Egypt acq'n due this month. If I was HBR - go the cash route - then takeover Neptune next year - SIMPLES. Will be in touch - waiting on part of my CNE to get released HNy - Let me know your thoughts. I'm on the move tomorrow - just to let you know.

SP Reaction 5th Aug Post India RNS £1.88 dragged to £1.62 ish - news of law change- huge shorts straight after - this time Girls we dealing with cash - Get burned baby and I hope you get fecked HNY

Wednesday, August 11, 2021 170 179.3 167.2 177.8 3,311,439 SHORTED
Tuesday, August 10, 2021 175 176.44 166.8 169.9 3,907,607 SHORTED
Monday, August 09, 2021 169 172.6 159.5 171.5 5,668,745 SHORTED
Friday, August 06, 2021 167 179.45 160.4 168.2 8,833,211 SHORTED
Thursday, August 05, 2021 124 185 122 158.5 6,993,505 INIDA NEWS OF LEG'N
Wednesday, August 04, 2021 128.9 129.3 123 125.6 1,765,782
Tuesday, August 03, 2021 129.3 132.8 128.5 130.4 1,055,933

Great oppo - all the neg guys buying at £1.29 trying to be clever shorting at £2 great - carry on -listen to their crap again - Just GReed - never. GLA Luzzin it.

T2040 - IMO DYOR - I think our CEO Piffed the Market with Pay increase starters earlier in the year , wrecked the easy visible growth model for lazy II's to sell to their squad - think - no commission on CNE - where's the growth other than the divi. So - Ideal for a predator and II's backing other options - I think next 4-5 weeks we're gone and help others on their ESG transition. IMO DYOR GN GLA & cheers T2040 _GLA

Its a CNE inferno - FFS any company getting $1bn cash refund - if you're piffed, either cause you played $1.7bn - or No deal = cause you is short BABY burn. GN Am Luzzin it.

That tipping point I'd say is around 7-9p away, when CNE becomes a NO RISK Play = 100% cash or 75p divi - me & the boys are waiting for a serious top up, as I sold 50% pre RNs - now will be a bit of fun next 3 weeks before India cash comes in, watching the games. Pure MM' manips = but for who's benefit - Last post GLA .

I was lucky with old PMO shorted it from £1+ - to low 20p's when Russia split OPEC + $10 OIl, In an ICE AGE I' would never dream of shorting a CASH based NAV in 2-3 weeks with $70 & obv NO DEBT FFS , good luck - the more they drive the bigger the return. GLA GN

Yep $1.2-3bn cash Post Indian settlement pre- vote makes CASH - equal to market Cap, never seen that before - Offer £3, or £1.5bn sterling - undefended target - you get 60% back in cash for Paper - then gear up with the $1b +3x $1bn - $4bn value the harbour. Harbour IMO will not join with Neptune, its a reverse takeover - Neptune are bigger and dominate the affair - would oust the BOD as PE animals do. Cheaper - CAIRN option, for both HBR & Neptune, Neptune get fast tracked to FTSE 250 - then straight to FTSE 100 post reverse takeover. HBR get 50BOPED for nothing and a $1bn cash - sends its growth cycle through the roof for shares -. Something Blackrock would love - HBR - could then renegotiate funding costs, facilities and start paying divis, they have $650m available cash for CAPEX- that could be applied for a takeover - and they then joint the FTSE 100 FFS for free and $1bn cash - I'm in. . What's best for any bidder- when there's no BID premium to budget for - no defence - unlike the Morris's auction - BOD are defenceless - so make's a BID 3x times more attractive - cheap as chips. Come on down - the price is right.. GLA I'm very serious about what I say, this is not a ramp, far from it - I said all this before the RNS- no - its looks total game on. It's all about the size of the prize to be gained and then the size of the fish chasing the bait. BOD needs a bigger boat.

Neptune could reverse into Cairn for cash - save an IPO its a $5bn company, get the cash back & 50kboepd post Egypt pre- distribution, HBR - CNE sits them to a tee - actually CNe would be worth nearly $bn to HBR x time cash but idiot forgot the cash - taking 29% of cash is a gift you'd get 50% back in cash day 3 FFS. Why are we being discounted to CASH, that's manipulation for you, if I have ever seen it. The cheaper we become- the greater the target, unfortunately, you will not get a bid until the India's money is in - TOO RISKY - so with this market we could be pushed down to suit a prime mover IMO DYOR, it will force a bid of some sorts. CNE becomes 'A De-risked takeover target in a debt heavy industry- with cash hungry ESG transition issues . This ' UNIQUE' opportunity does not happen very often & our CEO has been caught out & vulnerable to any move. I'd be waiting for a holding to emerge next 2-3 weeks. Very confident, we will be take out post India's cash either by PE's our the likes of Harbour, PE's more likely that want Market status - without an IPO, you get a FTSE 250 LISTING for CASH VALUE FFS, I'm putting the veg on, I smell CNE's dinners cooking. Better value here than Aldi's veg section 7pm on a Friday. HNY GLA

IC hit the point I was trying to make pre RNS CNE is a cash shell - The BOD stated in the podcast a 4-6 week delay - from receipt until Distribution vote, there's lot of potential M&A out there HBR & Neptune merger , given the lacklustre SP performance - I'd say we are wide open 'Pre distribution' for a bid - as I believe part of the logic for the $700m distribution is to cancel out that threat by reducing target cash holding (defensive move) . Pre distribution Cairn would have $1.1-1.2bn Net Cash of £1.75 per share CASH with a £1.95 SP FFS - that would allow an indebted suitor to leverage up x3.5times - worth to say HBR - north of $3.3-3.5Bn, whilst our market cap -sub $1bn--- gravy!!!! £3 bid difficult to defend now (was £4 but market reaction cause me to discount it) - as there's no news on the growth story - and as stated previously - the CEO has cut his own throat - leaving the company vulnerable to a bid - albeit for a short window of time. GLA I'm in for the Divi 75p bottom case - whatever the outcome. These will be interesting times.

What are you? - a One man JPM for Gods sake, I just do not have the breadth of knowledge nor your insight - anyone just read the mans notes brilliant. yes its entry point, I will be moving in here - even with Neptune and play the volatility as you state. I envy your brain - my man - always have and thanks for taking the time to post such detailed thoughts . I'm no longer sceptical - will now add when it feels a good deal and build a position. GLA What a man!!!! BB should respect his presence..

We gave back India - at least their giving back our cash. Can't fight a stubborn Sub Continent & massive economy too important for our major II's - if they weren't happy CNE BOD would fight it out - Ever read 'The Art of War' when dealing with a larger foe, live to fight another day and move on. GLA

DH, I think the earlier point you made- cannot be overstated. CNE BOD are risk adverse, they are not 'Chancers' sorry for the poor description, IMO DYOR these chaps would not put their name to a bogus call and take every precaution possible to best represent the India position. And yes someone is dumping at £1.99 ish - just look at the trade cover up. GLA A $Bill in the hand is worth £1.54 in the pocket.

With clear slide presentation, CEO, CFO have put their reputations on the line -here. gGreat update of Egypt with more output growth, many +ves except the SP. A few weeks will tell and then the distribution & the Share buy back 4-6 weeks after settlement well before Xmas - roll on. GLA

India Tax Dispute
The Group is considering entering into statutory undertakings with the Government of India in respect of new legislation, which would enable the refund of retrospective taxes collected from Cairn in India by way of asset seizures since 2014 totalling INR 79bn (approximately US$1.06bn). The final form of these statutory undertakings has yet to be published by the Government of India, but it is anticipated that the principal condition that they prescribe will be the withdrawal of Cairn's rights under the international arbitration award. As the Group has not yet entered into any such undertakings.

The government is also in touch with companies on the rules and the undertaking to be given before these are finalised. Regular discussions have been held with representatives of companies including Cairn on the settlement, the official said. The government will announce the rules after discussions to ensure that they are not cumbersome but address the concerns of all stakeholders, he said. - There's too much at stake here, the conditions have to be correct and satisfy II's legals review. GLA

Disappointed with Market reaction, however it allows me to regain some of the shares I sold. Obviously market is still sceptical and holding down for the US maybe to open - but as previous posters state, Blackrock would not have allowed the RNS out, unless fully consulted. Maybe the MM's want to draw out the SP's recognition of the progress made - as they have down this last month, with its reaction to the Indian legislation changes. GLA.
Yesterday - I was really worried they could not be able to say anything, whilst in litigation, I really got that wrong - Thank god, thought the Market would hammer - a no comment stance ..... . I'm more than happy to sit here and wait it out. GLA PS On reading the RNS and the SP hit £211 I thought I had really blown it, now we all get another chance.

GLA you LTH'ers - as the COI rules seem have baked, give up all claims, plus undertaking then fingers crossed, hope there' s good news tmz, that the more than patient deserve.