Member Info for BaysilHope

Basically I'm i'm MM FFS you are just being an annoying Charlie Uniform November T - you know if Oil is +$85 invest INVEST INVEST when Opex is $17 - please stop being an repeating basic economic and accounting bull Terxxxx - you're dragging this BB down and Fiing me off.

Its like the being boiled - starting with cold water, it does not recognise the heat surge until too late, our SP is being held deliberately Discounted IMO DYOR - CNE SP has been subtly discounted gradually by 16% over the last 6 weeks compared to Crude & Gas price movements + Egypt acq'n , - just plays into the hands of other predators, with their strengthening cashflows, Balance sheets and bank, Equity funding options. The Mm's want us to sell cheaply, we should be adding - big time - IMO DYOR GLA

Yep, their streamlining their Institutional funding for an acquisition or new producing assets in line with their strategy, which can then take them out of the hedging straight jacket imposed by the banks. IMO DYOR - POO up +20% last 2 months, they need to take on M&A or the BP Shell Oil major throw off medium size plays at discount. The extra $100m helps accelerate the growth- whether M&A - grow Non hedged prod'n, if not new field - move forward drilling prog.

On the 7th sept CNE RNS, Brent was $69.5 & nat Gas $4.50 - today Brent say $84 up 20%, NG $5.07 up +12.5% so our Sp as a target price relative to the surge in raw commodity costs is a Net discount of say -16% - so our SP relative to Other Oilers - forget hedging a second is £1.64, yet with the EQT acquisition our NAV goes up + 25p to +$1bn Pre India. CNE is a dead duck IMO DYOR - HBR cash flow now flying - with output up +30% - with more to come, the BOD must be worried. I said over a week ago the SP would crab, which increases our MKT Cap discount per day when POO & NG increase at new structural highs. GLA.

Seav, again right - I've heard of Diwali - hol period -whats happening in Mumbai right now -

Sharad Navratri - 7–15 Oct
Diwali Festival – Mega Hols
Thu 4 Nov – Fri 5 Nov
GOI Civil servants on a Jolly....

API big build in Crude - I'm watching how they play BP SP before 2nd Nov results. Drag BP down - so do most Oilers, BP could hit £3.40ish then cheap to buy. GLA

Quote - They were originally converted at £1.35p adjusted to £1.20 - so perversely for the PI, VOD makes profit buying back under £1.20, bond holders recover by shorting from £1.35 in April - this cycle will end H1 results - RNS 12 March 2021
MATURING MANDATORY CONVERTIBLE BOND AND INTENTION TO LAUNCH AN ASSOCIATED SHARE BUYBACK PROGRAMME
In March 2019, Vodafone Group Plc ('Vodafone') issued a two-tranche mandatory convertible bond ('MCB'), the first tranche of which (£1,720,000,000 1.20 per cent. Subordinated Mandatory Convertible Bonds; ISIN XS1960588850) matures today, 12 March 2021, and the second tranche of which is due to mature in March 2022. In order to satisfy the conversion of the first tranche of the MCB, 1,426,710,898 shares will be issued from treasury today at a conversion price of £1.2055. This reflects the conversion price at issue (£1.3505) adjusted for the pound sterling equivalent of aggregate dividends paid in August 2019, February 2020, August 2020 and February 2021. END - So while the SP is - where it is - the II's are happy - one month to go GLA

Excellent points Seav, I think the SP will drift now after 11th oct RNS on the N sea- until close to the GM date , I sold some yesterday to buy back before the GM. GLA

Hi GB1 ,
I think you've missed $0.7bn H2 capex on debt, but I agree POO $80 will yield better, I hate the Nat Gas Cap - & Volume, next year will be a transformation for this business. As soon as Tolmount is sorted - end of days IMO DYOR I's say allow 4-6 weeks to get the overhang levelled +then Tol and then massive upswing. GLA GN

Tried for 20 years to sell AI - Says it all really, its loss making, in debt Post pandemic issues losing $3m per day - they need out, so kill 3 birds one house brick , 1. Clear the Tax Dispute with CNE & others on seizure of AI planes. 2. Get AI off their back, saving taxpayers money - reduce debt, 3. Make India great again in front of a collapsing China investment story. G:A GN> DYOR IMO - CNE is really a refund of what was taken from an Indian point of view - no Net loss. get it done.

It's the release on the share lock up - overhang. in the last 2 weeks Free Float has increased form 150m to 500m +2.33% so the MM's don't want a flood of shares dumped after 2 profit warnings. This will pass - and i an excellent oppo to add at the right price, HBR output is now at levels PMO could only dream of. I think the best ratio PMO hit was sales $1.45bn debt $2.3bn roughly 63%, on my calc HBR H2 sales +$2.1bn - held back by hedging full yr $3.6bn sales Net debt $2.6bn 138% sales to debt can be repaid at these levels. So IMO DYOR - its the short term caution of +350m shares hitting the market unlocked Free float increase - as we saw last night 22m dropped at £3.45 - It's a Halloween share till 9th Dec TU ...... UHUHUH HNY.. I'm buying on the dips..

Sorry, I think I'm close by in my thinking - I forgot to mention the 17 days notice period - Circular to GM vote before the 18th Nov court deadline.. thats' what i was trying to say.
Court deadline - is a crucial date for CNE & Air India . I was too brief, get 28th out of the way, next circular say latest 30th Oct - 17 day vote before the court deadline, if nothing's decided by 18th Nov another extension conflicts with the sale of Air India 10th Dec deadline and would shake confidence in GOI & delay much needed trade agreements India is pushing for. . So IMO DYOR - there should be a circular regarding GOI refund 29th - 31st Oct???!! Vote before 18th Nov. or is that too simple? Sale of North Sea is a required defensive move - I get it, raise cash to pursue acquisitions if GOI fails, makes sense.

Thx Seav - cheers.

The late RNE yesterday +6pm - and 17 days notice from the 11th to the 28th is working under pressure. In June Egypt GM circular was 29th June GM 19th July - 20days. At the end of Sept both GOI & CNE agreed a stay of action until the 31st Oct I believe, so is this clearing the decks before GM No. 2?? Hope so. GLA

Dearie Me - if they close this deal and get another Net $180m in the bank - - $1.6bn cash post GOI - FFS this is like an old song' Dina, Dina show us your leg - a yard above your knee!.. HNY Plan falling into place - CNE falls next week to £1.80 on US correction - 10YR US yield and poor Q3 Us earing outlook - in like Flint . GLA IMO DYOR

CNE BOD understand they have put their Wedding tackle out in the market last 9 months whilst Oil & Gas have gone absurdamundo , nearly sold the cleaner above $80POO FFS - Class 1 holds II's until the BOI is unveiled... The timing of this RNS - IMO DYOR is crucial - it buys time, until GOI news, support SP. I think these guys are toast in a +$85 enviro &$1.35bn cash.. I can taste the liver and Chianti... GLA

plus avoid a recession - if its only +400m boe per day - it will calm markets and regain order. You can't run a steel works on wind or Solar, IMO the most reliable green energy is Tidal, known output and the Uk is blessed with the 2nd largest tidal movements in the world. In 30 years we will have Nuclear Fusion power - the greenest of the lot powered by helium 3 from the moon, one less proton!! Key advantage - does not need to repel the surplus proton into the reactor walls - decaying them. That's why China is going to the Moon first - claim its stake - 1kg of Helium 3 in a nuclear fusion reactor can power New York for a year = $1bn in value = 1KG HNy. 30 years away and clean - no heavy elements mimics the Sun.... If you research most valuable elements in the world - 1st is Negative energy - helium 3 - the burnt decay debris of the solar wind, abundant on the surface on the moon - can't react Earth because of the atmosphere is in the top 4 .. We need OPEC and Green energy to get us there. GLA.. Uk are in the top - in the field of Nuclear Fusion generation - expect a SPAC next 10 years HNY GLA

EC - you're knowledge of Oil & trading goes way back - Quote you yesterday on the Bb BP share - I have BP shaes samll Qty
Will be interesting to see how Biden plays this. Apparently Sat 15:41

"high" gas (what we call petrol) prices in the USA are a very big deal to USA voters. I have read Bidens administration has previously already spoken to the Saudis about what they regard as a high oil price. Now Brent is over $82 no doubt they will have been speaking to the Saudis again. But will they act? This is the key question. Also the API and EIA oil stock reports will have a big affect at these price levels. I sold 2/3rds of my investment Friday @ £3.54 as if Saudi and OPEC cave in to pressure and up oil output I think the price of Brent will nose dive to $70-$75 within 3 or 4 days, still a very nice price for oil Co's but it would knock BP's sp down a load too.
All IMHO.
Bring this to CNE BB - I totally agree with you're insight - Spot On Quality Post !!! FFS

Modi wants to wrap up a clutch of Quick fire bilateral trade pacts by Mar 22, 'early Harvest ' free trade agreements reversing previous attitudes Post Covid - Arrows point same direction... GLA

Sorry, NOFEAR - I'm not signed up everywhere on subscriptions - I love reading info and am pretty good on research - everything I've found is available to all - only thing is- I'm lucky i have a twisted mind when it comes to business tactics and can sometimes smell a rat - few not many - but with Land & oil - I've dealt in land quite a lot for others and learned many negotiating tactics from that. I'm an ordinary PI Unfortunately not wealthy enough - too many Vodafone shares!!! 5G Tower Investment FFS GLA

sorry - last point- in a joint block E&P - the fortunes of every member fluctuate - which makes Oil a brilliant asset to trade, PE firms are clever at exploiting Debt laden partners - or distress and getting value in changing POO environment i.e. HBR & PMO - with POO over $80 and Nat gas expect HBR to get busy, this is their deal making enviro next 6-9mths. GLA