Member Info for BaysilHope

Good FT article - China are demolishing surplus flats and need a different (Not property lead growth Model) so Global growth slows as the transition takes effect (They have surplus EMPTY PROPERTY TO HOUSE +90M ACCORDING TO THE FT & THEIR COMMIE!!!! Speculation rife cuts thru their ideology FFS. This correction - when played out - (Means Feck all when we $1bn form India )- US politics - who are now looking favourite to benefit from China's real structural growth problems (They will always need O&G baby) - wait for 'Uncle Sam to tuck everybody up and enjoy China squirm & thn & adjust to slower world growth - except Green energy. . GLA

I'm nervous holding any Non Short position - Fed Tapering, bringing rate hikes forward to 2022, US & China growth fading, supply constraints, inflation, stagflation, COVID Delta Gas shortage - - Evergrande collapse could trigger contagion as it add 1-2% to China GDP, Commodities price collapse (Not so much Oil) - US Tech vulnerable to rate hikes and yet US market climbs, even when bond buying will be reduced. I'm nervous and reducing GLA- can't wait for this to get cleared and then march on. GLA

Quote -Neptune has been considering a potential IPO that could value the business at more than $5 billion, people familiar with the matter said in May. The pitch for a share sale could be hampered by growing concerns from investors about how oil companies will adapt to the energy transition. Next day HBR shares fell 4.2% . IMO DYOR - A merger of PE firms or VC's usually ends up in a blood bath, both Neptune & HBR have large debt and are Carbon Unfriendly - the double transition cost Crazy. CNE would be the cure to either and get both to the FTSE 100, its greener and cash rich. IMO I would expect a bidding war between the two. HBR After being through one merger is unlikely to go for a second with a Clumsy awkward BIGGER RIVAL that would dictate and lose control of the mothership. On the opposite side a takeover on CNE by Neptune would work - until HBR blocks it- Neptune can't issue shares, its not quoted - they'd have to pay cash plus debt and make HBR work at it, if they're going to lose out - HBR favourite right size - they'd issue 500m sahes only 1/3 dilution - very sellable to investors IMO . HNY GLA If you've worked for any company stricken by debt, dampening expectations, control and limiting any business plan. The route out is PRICELESS to regain control and not be subservient to debt - properly, enjoy the freedom to grab the massive oppos of majors unloading assets . My GUT & its large says soon, either way. FREEDOM. Just after a 10% market correction after Evergrande collapses next week in China .... get into CNE & HBR cheap next 2 weeks. GLA

HBR gearing +150% and has to fund probably $2-3bn of additional 'Transition' costs next 5 years on top of everything else. CNE would bridge that gap yield +$50m in Finance costs saving and add +40k/day greener production plus replace reserves- no brainer. Both the original protagonists of the merger have been constrained by debt for +5-7 years, now there's a chance to escape the trading shackles of Debt confinement, liberate trading options and assist growth, especially with interest rates on the rise. As an FT article stated, the merger was not a typical equity reverse more akin to a debt management exercise. I'm all for HBR, I honestly think they will hit £5-6 more quickly through acquisition of a low maintenance, cash shell that ticks every box they require (its also a greener and helps that Transition). IMO DYOR GLA

HBR's debt only reduced to $2.6bn, albeit H2 output will rise. Dumping Sealion sends out a large signal to replace those lost reserves and double down on debt and replace exploration assets with infrastructure - if they acquired CME. IMO DYOR GLA

I've struggled with trying to remap my own version of the merger accounts, I can't wait to get the real picture, I think gearing will be 225% debt to Net Assets - not the end of the world for a cash cow, but I can't model forward without H1 results. After a merger there will be unforeseen costs and down time, H2 will be better and so on for 2022. GLA - I have found the release of Accounting info a tad difficult. GN

I hope this doesn't go wrong - re-edit the original song for India:
I love the sound of banking cash
Deep into the night
I love the sound of its condition
1 Billion pounds Flying all around,
Oh change of mind, sound of banking cash
Nothing new, sound of banking cash

I love the sound of banking cash
POO will soon be 90
I love the work it can do
I need the noises of Destruction
Oh all around, sound of banking cash
Safe at last, sound of banking cash

I'm very sorry, but I just see this illusion of CNE Balance sheet rising to £1.365bn of which £1bn is cash FFS - I love the sound of banking cash.....deep into the night...

Last point today, H1 CNE NAV $810m - or £1.10 Nat Asset Book Value. Post India $1.06bn - straight add to NAV - $1.87bn or £1.65bn or £2.70 per share. Less Divi NAV $1.37bn or £2\ share as $360m of the Indian cash receipt was retained, add Egypt completion and this share should be consolidated at £1.90, the $200m share cons will hold it at £2 as book value falls to $1.17bn - £850m dividend by say 400m shares £2.10, assuming $200m = 100m share reduction. So the scaremongering of a collapse to £1.20 SP forgets the retained $360m or 52p 500m shares share before consolidation - or 65p share. So at todays SP IMO DYOR, there is little risk at any purchase below £1.90 - as long as India pays up. So this SP squeeze has been a pure blessing in disguise. GN GLA DYOR. Last post. Added for divi..

Hi Ant1986, HBR are Venture Capital PE background outfit, which helps, it all depends on the CNE II's, they would have to be won over before a launch. I can imagine - CNE would have dropped onto the radar of any predator as soon as the Indian Tax legislation was changed, mid Aug - so I 'Guess' this - IMO DYOR - A framework would have been already planned - VC's work to strict deadlines - working in HBR's favour - on the defence side - a hefty material bid would make CNE II's sit up and negotiate with the CNE's BOD, which would struggle with a counter argument, especially if Egypt is delayed. I remember - I think - the Hanson dawn raid on ICI - that's age for you. Stagecoach - Nex is a 28day turnaround after the initial proposal - which has been discussed for some time. Needs must where the devil drives. Every Exec on a HBR would make this happen - As Sir John Harvey Jones used to say - its TOO good an opportunity to let slip IMO a 'One Off' due to the nature of the windfall - which changes mid cap oilers opportunity dynamics, which also is very unlikely to happen again. Success = Right time, Right place and Effort. Where else would you get these 6 opportunities rolled in ONE - together 1. Launch Possible bid with weak resistance from BOD & Stakeholders II's . 2- Near Cash value per share acquired, 3. Major Global Oil supermajors throwing off assets like confetti for acquisition. 4. Repair a damaged Balance Sheet - by reducing gearing by 80% - from risk 227% to safety compliance 43% . 5 nearly guaranteeing the acquirers SP to jump substantially because of point 4- accretive all day long. 6. Be set up for growth, transition and be able to pay a sustained dividend, whilst materially reducing risk. IMO DYOR - This is all guess work, so please DYOR. I'm in.

Back 4-5 months ago, major stakeholders in Stagecoach, Souter & Gloag started offloading shares due to age. This action Opens to door for a bid, at the right time and price. Only a guess IMO DYOR - the fact that our II's are off loading (Even after a $700m handout windfall handout and NOT ADDING - FFS) WOULD SIGNAL - there would be least resistance to a bid from the majority of II's - for any observing predator. IMO after the receipt of Indian cash, door is open, smash it in. GLA (MFS reduced earlier in the year). Any bid would have to be post Indian cash & before a distribution vote. Last post on this - sorry to march on. Our Ii's & MM's -- IMO are signalling come and get it......

Hi Whitehat, the reason I think CNE II's will go for it, (If ever happened) they own 80%ish I believe, three reasons, one promotion to the FTSE 100 through HBR, with nearly guaranteed HBR +30% increase in quick time (43% gearing v 233% New HBR) , constant dividend, as HBR new financial complexion would allow more reliable income stream and finally, growth\transition story. So Blackrock would get £3 for CNE share and then +30% uplift for New HBR (say 3-4 mths) = £4\share as opposed to £700m or £1/share and where there is little visibility on future divi stream - IMO DYOR 4:1 better return, if all II's support it. HBR will get to £5 far quicker than CNE getting to £3 through normal trading. GLA

I know I'm repeating myself - but have rerun Back of an envelope calcs - HBR H1 out Thurs 23rd, HBR Net assets post PMO merger say $1.2bn, debt $2.7bn, gearing 225%, which is WEAK & supresses the HBR SP, limits upside growth and immediate Funds available to expand. IF? - HBR acquired CNE for £3\share or $2bn ALL Share acquisition. New Balance Sheet NAV $3.2bn and Net debt down to $1.4bn - gearing 43%, that would increase HBR SP by +30%?? immediately- new rating and give an immediate +$3bn for growth or further acquisitions.- where all the majors are 'Offloading' - Right Time- Right Place IMO
The acquisition would get HBR into the FTSE 100 and gain say 40k boped for free. These opportunities are rare, especially at $74 PO and CNE would struggle to defend it, so if I were the HBR BOD, charge in, absolutely nothing to lose all to gain, sorts their Balance Sheet immediately, gearing, debt issue out and the Free float for the FTSE 100. HNY. I'm not ramping here, but when things get so cheap, look at Nex & Stagecoach, falls into your lap.
It would take HBR 3 -4 years to get down to 40% gearing through normal trading IMO DYOR. Watch this space, if HBR don't move on CNE other similars could get similar improvements, so FOMO from a weak target. From an Accounting - business perspective ticks so many boxes - the +ves far out way the -ves - it would be a huge miss. IMO DYOR GLA

Thx Megla, I did panic a tad through frustration but then looked again at the Meggitt story pre bid - IMO DYOR the only way II's would get a better return is in support of a bid, from a company with a stronger business plan. If 80% of CNE is owned by II's - a potential bidder would need CNE II support to build a holding, only thing greater than a $700m return of capital, is a +£3 bid with a GROWTH story and constant access to dividends. I think we are being softened up here and allowing cheap access to CNE, at less than potential cash per share. I stand by what I said, our cash would be irresistible to other mid cap 'indebted' Oilers. The only thing I can visualise - why various II's are reducing is paving a way for a takeover, whilst supressing the SP. The lower the SP - the less risk for any bidder & greater the reward. GLA

Where in Europe would $50m, get you 5% of $1.2bn and a seat on the Board, and then get $18m divi back FFS, you take out a competitors strategy and HBR needs to go green - where CNE fits the bill over a longer period - same Noble - same Enq anyone, the MM's have really down a great job of making any new investor worried about manipulation, when things are going well - drop it 20%. Well played. GLA

HBR would get at least qa 72p divi if a 30% stake failed - NO RISK and positioned for CNE slip up. That $1.2bn cash is worth $4bn to HBR to gear up and acquire many producing assets - even bid for Neptune - there's so many derampers here pretending they are not short - - like Oh it would be 123p - then 80 p Egypt cramp - and forget we get $1bn in 8 working days - I hope you guys get burned - for Lizza Minelli- ing FFS just say it I'm a greedy twit and will feck over any LTH'ers - at least you know the truth.

They lost money and didn't generate cash.

Today's drop smelt of panic, overdone 8p on crap Broker Re-rates by nobody - the only legal way for them to reduce the SP. If I was short in the next 3-4 days - I'd be taking Vodka and a warm blanket to bed - this will drop below the cash NAV £1.73 - peeps will pile in. We've had 2 Olympics, US Open - utterly brilliant and now CNE trashed... I was lucky I sold before the RNS and took profit - like you guys assuming a bad RNS but I didn't short. GLA The shorts will win no doubt and make mega bucks - but not for me, GL I couldn't short that RNS didn't have the guts, not my game - this will turn when you guys go green. GLA - I'm planning on the 72p Divi cashflow - beats US 10YR Yield a tad.
I think they will push this through the 200DMA - holding back cash ready

Thurs JPMorgan £2.00 = don't hold much, Friday £1.95 Cancord Uncertain - Next week £3 after deal signed - can't wait. Manipulation at its utter best - Really am impressed ( When MM's GET AN RNS COMPLETELY INCORRECT & ARE WRONG FOOTED would help if the Market was jittery - what excuse next- sack the CNE broker FFS - learned loads GLA

Keep those shorter's closing Rawhide. We're down 9% in a week with a $700m pay-out - Tullow was up +13% despite a production downgrade H2 and £2.3bn debt at 10.25% coupon $290m finance costs p.a. - its a mixed up muddled up world except for Lola. Keep falling... I need to get my mates into this.

Simples - Like Enq - then Tullow will follow - Oilers set up for the fall, maybe HBR on the 23rd also? - when their debt gets exposed + the ugly side of the business - Oilers SP fall. So for CNE BUT MM's got CNE wrong IMO , didn't expect Indian resolution so quick and so NOW the downgrade to justify the slow exit - I'll get me coat. I'm buying - over the next few weeks as the SP falls - buying like Toyota needs semi conductors - not yet - let's see the volume as these guys - who got CNE H1 results TOTALLY wrong - Now crawl out from behind the rocks - these munter's bet on India withdrawal - (same - remember when OPEC split with Russia $10 Oil - I was there - the right side of Oilers) . This is different Then - - after receipt of India cash - a bid. FFS - Love the continued down play on this BB - when you get a 72p divi ?? - its clear - who is who. Luz it - SIMPLES!!! Crack on. Harbour Energy could buy 29% on CNE if II's backed them and get 2\3 of their cash back. Look carry on - help drive the SP lower so I can make more money. Berencrap downgraded because they were caught out , didn't think so many had NO FAITH FFS - only thing changed with h1 RNS - is things have got much better. I won't post now for 2 weeks - need you guys to work your downward magic - play-on. Where's EC with the $1.7m bellecks. I hope you guys - clear the gunnels and get back to the real business of this SP going forward/ Clue was 7th Sept RNS - shares hit £2.11 before the Shorting scream pull back - rigged stack - in the short term only. RNS was Not a collapse to £1.59. or 200DMA> I think we should bottom at £1.75 ish - ALL IN