Member Info for BaysilHope

HBR has $770m set aside for Q2 capex, they've shelved early development capex, don't have enough drilling in progress to spend say $250-350m capex in H2 - so there is a clear $400m set aside for acquisitions, IMO DYOR, thats why with say +$500m FCF after capex $80/mth, etc we get $1.5bn - just to explain my figures. The $500m senior notes success is a precursor given by the banks for a green light to acquire - news soon - I think at least 2 acquisitions. . GN GLA

Largest Big Oil FCF for 13 years - Shell & Total 28th Oct +$29bn FCF , exxon 29th Oct record and BP 2nd Nov, BP cheap including the divi. Backdrop - if Enq can make a $260m acq'n in a distressed state, what can HBR bring to the table - 6 weeks and we will find out. Now is the time to build a position, Hedge funds are buying long oil +11m Barrels last week, short 1m. My excel model needs a review but I reckon we are making $0.75m FCF per day and $140m NPBT per month - thats +$600m H2 after capex of $80m/mth plus - then add + $100m surplus from the $500m loan. Thats a lot of fire power of +$1.5bn within limits allowing +$500m acq'n fund (excluding equity issuance) - given the proven fact we are now bankable. GLA - HBR then capable of +260-300kboepd in 2022 - unstoppable , hovering up medium size chunks of BP etc that's too big for other medium oilers. Must be a castrated Donkey to sell now or even promote it FFS.

This uncertainty principle applies to CNE shareholders, you can't guess where the other particle is. No news always gravitates to the negative, where constant doubt creeps in. i don't think the II's will undermine the BOD with regard to the North Sea sale, they need the GOI resolution to remain intact. It's all about the GOI completion timeline IMO DYOR. The Air India deadline is the 18th Nov, the tax rules were issued 2nd oct, you'd expect 3 weeks minimum for the lawyers to digest it then communicate their advice to the BOD & II's legal teams. I can't guess Thursdays' GM references to the tax case, just glad to have some news update, to reassess the investment situation. GLA Thurs hurry up.

Quote - next GM outcome using Quantum Phyiscs - Phase 2 - Pauli's Exclusion Principle states that no two electrons in the same atom can have identical values for all four of their quantum numbers. In other words, (1) no more than two electrons can occupy the same orbital and (2) two electrons in the same orbital must have opposite spins.

The massive importance of this is – In my own words, think of the space between a hydrogen proton and its electron, prob same distance to Mars same scale – so WE SHOULD ALWAYS fall below the space between atoms and electrons. At the sub level massive we- don’t why?/ Pauli exclusion principle
I’ve adaped this to the baysil basic no clue approach principle – no two shorters be correct at the SP below £1.87 or occupy the same space time - FFS , it’s physically not possible, so am I making any money out of CNE Last Post GN GLA

Why would they buy - other than Tolmount - with secured 1st Pre emptions rights FFS - with a distressed seller in debt and floundering. GLA HNY

Quote ' uncertainty principle, also called Heisenberg uncertainty principle or indeterminacy principle, statement, articulated (1927) by the German physicist Werner Heisenberg, that the position and the velocity of an object cannot both be measured exactly, at the same time, even in theory. The very concepts of exact position and exact velocity together, in fact, have no meaning in nature. END APPLY THIS TO STOCK THEORY - & CNE SP = 3 News outcomes - 1. GOI agree pay up - given timescale 3.4wkks prob 15.37% £20 Sky bet , second- CNE BOD GOI agree extension 4- 6 weeks to agree on the legals - prob 66.78%, Sky bet £500 - third outcome - they rescind - 17.87% SP collapse. I put this through sky bet and I 've put £10 CNE don't get a pay - out hedging pay-out - £500 on a both score no draw outcome i.e we get $1.06bn with a condition - and £15 we go solo and Air India becomes an a military wing of Afhganni's .

Thx Pleebs, appreciate your insight, thats a lot of physical Oil - I would not know where to look for data like that. Cheers GLA and lets hope POO goes one way up. I'm amazed how disciplined US Shale has been and stock levels at Cushing could be catalyst for the $100 marker, in the coming weeks. Brent thru $86.24.

Clever by Linda, starve Dana of opportunity, frustrate the KNOC BOD with debt issues - forcing them to pay out more on operational repairs instead of getting $3m a day income - makes for a great negotiating meeting, knowing there's 2 more months to survive before any operational resolution - deliberate?? !! , especially when a big Fat carrot is dangling there, to get out( and history has proven they have NO appetite for Tolmount) . Typical PE strategy - you're drowning need a 50ft rope, they throw a 25ft, you must attach the keys to the safe, before you are pulled in. The current Sp swings are a distraction, although money making, this could become a very serious player in 2022, if POO is above $75 & nat gas +$2.50 GLA GN Knackered.

This is what i read from your link -

Oil price, Union Jack, Chariot, Kistos, Rockhopper. And finally…
23 September 2021|Categories: Daily Blog|Tags: Chariot, IOG, Kistos plc, Rockhopper Exploration, Union Jack Oil|2 Comments

Rockhopper Exploration
Rockhopper Exploration noted the announcement this morning by Harbour Energy plc regarding its decision not to proceed with the Sea Lion project.
I listened in to the webcast this morning but wasn’t invited to the conference call and thus the important Q&A session although just as it finished my request was granted. Harbour said that, according to my notes, despite quality subsurface reserves Sea Lion is a multi-billion dollar, in a remote part of the world with no infrastructure which adds to the risk in capex unit costs. This followed a comment that Harbour ‘won’t undertake high risk, multi-billion dollar long lead time projects’.
Readers know that I have a long standing policy of not writing about or covering companies that I have not met and this applies to Harbour, as any other. Having said that, I know the Premier assets well enough having followed them for a long time and of course a detailed knowledge of Rockhopper itself. As for Harbour with their operational problems and suchlike they are clearly keeping their heads down at the moment, I would like to cover the stock someday.

Shell 28th oct next Exxon & BP 2nd Nov, all this is to get oilers cheap before stupid profit season and distributions, showing what HBR is capable of - now back to 210k p day. Loaded up today - with that Friday feeling....

That's the 23rd sept - what relevance is it now - they need to speak to other more important peeps first.

Last points - 1 Linda Cook in her webcast expresses in disbelief BP were throwing off mature producing assets - never in her lifetime - check it out. 2. There are a limited number of players that can complete a deal. We all know from land or industrial deals, the ability to complete = discount and priority of purchase. Note PMo failed on both Tol & BP as they could not guarantee an outcome. HBR now - (After the fund raise) the ability to move with confidence. So can CNE who can actively buy in the market but don't have SCALE - SCALE FFS so its only CNE & Neptune potential bidders for BP assets IMO DYOR - I'd think they would need to raise equity - not listed so... CNE want green so out HBR in my mind have a clear run at this. Plus they have all the Legal paperwork and Due Diligence already performed, only need updating, most of the PMO KNOC & BP contacts I would presume all work for the same companies now HBR - HNY Bingo Good Night - One for all and All for one - FFS why am I not a NED for night nurse Luv it GL BP want out fast - HBR can do that, I reckon 70% hedged 30% free 210kboped less capex $80m/mth last 6 mths would have +$300m spare cash +$100m New loan to Dance baby. HNY GLA

I've missed you, big time when out of PMO HBR , you know about Oil, there's no doubt, one day you must educate me on it. GLA Always pleasure to read anything you post, fact, no biased, well educated, not like a hairy arsed belleck like me. Thx GL We'll keep posting no doubt.. can't wait for CMD - IMO its BP & KNOC acq'n 50% Tol - $1.5bn - 50:50 Debt equity.

As i said 2 birds one house brick - quote - but now HBR have the Fire power..
Premier Oil scraps Tolmount purchase as creditors approve BP deal
Exploratory firm Premier Oil has dropped plans to buy a 25 per cent stake in Korean-owned company Dana Petroleum’s Tolmount field in the North Sea.
The $191m (£152.6m) deal was agreed in January, alongside agreements to buy two fields from BP for a combined $625m.
However, the company today revealed that it had shelved the plan to buy the gas field, which it already owns a 50 per cent stake in, but did not comment on the reasons why. Like oil prices, the value of gas has plunged this year in line with the fall in global demand due to the coronavirus.
Premier also announced that its creditors had approved its acquisition of the BP fields after the oil giant agreed to reduce the prices for the Andrew Area and Shearwater deposits.
Under the amended terms cash payable upon completion has been reduced from the original price to $210m.
Korea’s state oil firm sells 25% stake in Tolmount project to ease liquidity strains
State-run Korea National Oil Corp. (KNOC) offloaded half of its stake in the Tolmount gas project in the British North Sea, retrieving up to $300 million to help shore up its finances.
Dana Petroleum, the British oil company wholly owned by the debt-ridden Korean utility, agreed to sell 25 percent out of its total 50 percent stake in Tolmount to the project operator Premier Oil, KNOC said in a press release.
Dana and Premier Oil had held equal stakes in the Tolmount gas project. Tolmount Main gas field, located 50 kilometers east of Britain’s central coast, is one of the biggest undeveloped gas discoveries in the Southern North Sea. Tolmount is estimated to hold 89 million barrels of recoverable gas resources and is slated to start production in late 2020. KNOC has been involved in the project ever since it acquired Dana in 2011.
With the stake sale, Premier Oil is expected to boost its operational efficiency and stability from the increased ownership, while Dana would provide much-needed liquidity to its heavily indebted parent company.

The sale is part of KNOC’s self-rescue efforts to turn around its troubled business. The company has set up an emergency task force, with the chief executive at the helm, to push cost-cutting measures and bolster its balance sheet.

KNOC saw its debt swell by 300 billion won ($255 million) to 1.16 trillion won in 2019 from a year earlier. Its annual losses over the past five years have averaged 1.8 trillion won.
When the stake sale is completed, Dana is expected to reduce its stake from 50 percent to 25 percent and receive up to US$300 million -- US$250 million in proceeds from the sale and US$50 million in settlement for investment already made. Premier Oil, which currently owns the operation right, will be able to enhance efficiency in project management by acquiring additional stakes. GLA GN

The more I look at this on a Strategic level, IMO DYOR, I think the success of HBR's $500m refinancing deal is not fully appreciated by the PI's stakeholders. No doubt - for the $500m, II's would have had access to the full SCALE GROWTH PICTURE - HENCE THE no SP reaction - wait an buy in load up !! bigger picture and as I said, its easy for Green to raise finance than the power house of the UK's fossil energy system. Linda Cook re-emphasised time and time again in her H1 webcast - How proficient HBR group is at M&A and its track record & the preferred option - Not Sea Lion etc !!! This funding deal was a test of market appetite for what's to come IMO, whether its a mix of Equity and debt and reneg - hedging deals etc etc - GLA This is the start... IMO DYOR Major RNS before CMD - GLA

especially in the US with Cushion empty ??? Where's Shale at $85 - no funding OPEC are rubbing their hands , if you want to fund a green frog start up for Methane capture +$1bn SPAC no prob's Bitcoin any-day, heat and supply energy to the planet - feck off. To fund the green energy transition you need +$100POO SIMPLES & - Poster Oil please feck up for a mo - so others can post FFS

Some are born with Scale, some achieve Scale, some have Scale thrust upon them - why just not buy scale before it becomes critical - before it hits $100. GLA. Deals talks with various happening-no doubt. Short this - must be mental at £3.67 Klazy as a fool... Bet next RNS is a fecking Peaky Blinder.. hence the NO News H1 Webcast.

Posted this yesterday - why push back TU by 1 month? Unless something material is happening behind the scenes , in H1 no mention of renegotiating soft loan, adding $100m cash , as I state no commitment to year end debt - see below - something is a foot...
M&A - Annual Natural Decline rate - Dec CM
Just listened to Linda again and the thing that stands out for me - is she gets revved up talking about the various M&A options - BP strategy to reduce prod'n over the next 7-8 years - and where M&A will play apart in the growth story. Annual Natural Decline rates were 10-15% so continuous drillings maintains output - I would expect M&A some news at CMD, no matter how small. The BOD dodged year end exit prod'n, year end debt levels, Tolmount in detail - future growth forecasts - using 9th Dec CMD as a shield, which you would if you were in acquisition discussions, whatever size, even taking smaller working interests out. The fact remains that growth will require some kind of M&A activity even with Tolmount back on line, if HBR's ambitions are to be realised. GLA. I 'm more focused on what they 'Didn't say' or avoided, than the presentation details itself, which by definition - is the rear window view. GLA

Just listened to Linda again and the thing that stands out for me - is she gets revved up talking about the various M&A options - BP strategy to reduce prod'n over the next 7-8 years - and where M&A will play apart in the growth story. Annual Natural Decline rates were 10-15% so continuous drillings maintains output - I would expect M&A some news at CMD, no matter how small. The BOD dodged year end exit prod'n, year end debt levels, Tolmount in detail - future growth forecasts - using 9th Dec CMD as a shield, which you would if you were in acquisition discussions, whatever size, even taking smaller working interests out. The fact remains that growth will require some kind of M&A activity even with Tolmount back on line, if HBR's ambitions are to be realised. GLA. I 'm more focused on what they 'Didn't say' or avoided, than the presentation details itself, which by definition - is the rear window view.

CNE should be £2.25- from 7th sept RNs exclude Egypt acq'n - solely on the upward move of Brent & Nat gas - 16% discount , so all you girls trying to talk this cheaper -SHAME ON YOU - lisa's full of crxp.... Hny $1.8bn joke recovery - move to ENQ or TLW or Bitcoin FFS..