Member Info for BaysilHope

Just a Clazy idea, Neptune too big a swallow for HBR at +$70, so Neptune don't want to go it alone, can't IPO, no takers to date - why not sell - firstly fractions of production progressively to HBr as a leg up for a favourable exit rate -to make the final meal more digestible. I thinks HBR are in the driving seat as there are no pears of equal scale with such free access to resources. So - If I were CFO HBR - take out CNE first, for shares, get +$1.4bn cash back and take a third of Neptune production straight out - and Dana's 50% Tolmount, thats gets the Mega Incomes scales growing to swallow Neptune whole in 12 months. If Neptune are 'In and play ball - you have +$8bn talking to the banks on a joint reconfiguration over a 12-15 month window - with little competition . Simples - GLA IMO DYOR GLA Throughout, managed carefully HBR shares would just be on an upward runway - taking all before it and consolidate a position of few others in that division, just like Jupiter in the earlier solar system formation, not a star but the best of the planets. This laver bread is strong. GN

Overnight Brent crashed, UK open - Bloomberg Spiel Oil rally Bolares - All peeps knews they will push Oil down before OPEC Meets finish, so HBR performs a long upward arch climbing loop and we are frozen out of the Treat. I know yesterday was Gold dust - £3.76 ish . But show they is a cash wrecking ball, why we are left to whistle Dixie, with this wide volatility - you can't play a DR Strangelove Nuke. GLA Hate the yanks, I'm holding firm for the CMD - which should bring in a higher trading range - even at $70ish Brent - with M&A news... hence the II's positioning IMO DYOR GLA...

I agree the boredom on waiting - it's like being attached to a Lebanese radiator. Lighten the mood a tad, great idea WH, I think there will be an Interim RNS Update on the date of the name Change 13th Dec and GOI confirmation RNS after a beer & a curry on the 29th Dec. So I'm going for the 29th DEC GOI payment date deadline notification. GLA and my SP prediction £2.30. HNY Looking at GOI's IPO ambitions - CNE pay-out cash Mid Jan 22 14th - T/O 21st. Inchalla.

Life' s like a box of Hydro carbons - you never know which one you're gonna get. GLA

And the peeps are just delib side-tracking the obvious. GLA

First Barny, the GOI refund - the market has totally forgotten about it - Joke!!!1. sideways trading in the SP - does challenge your mental health somewhat - our share group keep waiting & I keep stalling. However - the new variant will stir the mix. I noticed on the Friday collapse - lack of Vol - the bots pushed Brent down too far -11% post US open - when US on hols - IMO todays brief rally IMO - to get those out of the Mkt - square at SP 2:30 26th time. Now with Iran & Greek letter z variant - OPEC plus delayed meeting - SPR release world wide - MM's will push Oil down - short term until Winter kicks in & No Gas. This presents a great oppo - to buy further dips - I've traded CNE on obvious moves, don't expect any news until the 13th Name Change. GLA This share is low risk against an Oil dip - unlike others with big loan & hedging commitments. I can't wait for the breakthrough moment - not long. Am tired of waiting - which is what the MM's want - Remember Harlech castle survived a 7 year siege - only 80 months to go.

Called it - quote Are they setting an Oil trap?? Is it too Simples....?? Are we Whistling Dixie? GLA This SP is mental though - today Jesus..

Soder, you are a great guy and excellent HBR poster - very knowing poster - seems to me you are in deep HBR for the excitement in your posts . Look HBR will fly - all I'm saying is Oil is in for a ride MM,s wll luv lying about it's priced in, Iran back on stream a joke !!!!!!!!! What i hate is Inflation and the impact POO on the weakest so SPR release WORLD WIDE will sound a message to KSA there is a duty of care here - on GLOBAL INFLATION - .. and the powers maybe - are not so divided as all. IMO S & P neds to drop 300 points and calm down. HNY After thanksgiving...

IMO World markets overvalued short term - HBR Great stock based upon recovering Tolmount output - see Enq example - of - I'm not on for £4.14p great stock = My favourite CNE +$1.bn cash - quicker than HBR can justify non HNY GLA and you don't have crazy monologues on the SP BB

Saudi are large into Oil but Feck size in all world economics, if US India, Japan, China & others plus US take action - then Russia goes feral on Ukraine - KSA are wide open to economic bullying by her Massive International customers, Iran are key this US know it Trump Broke the deal 2018 Uncle Joe bring it home - US Gas pumps prices -10% for 6 months when Interest rates kick in - no demand Covid etc GLA IMO DYOR Bloom****e - Half the news.

Soder - you mention 2011 SPR release The U.S. Department of Energy said 2011- it will release 30 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to alleviate Libyan supply disruptions -- driving already sinking prices lower. Inflation then was 3.19% Now +6% and affecting voting decisions - Then - No Covid - No Russia looking to invade Ukraine, no Lockdowns, restrictive supply constraint and travel affecting Oil demand. Add Iran - sanction free renewed export supply, US Shale numb to react and Brent is UP FFS - Add Interest rate hikes and tapering withdrawal - and then be careful = that's all I say. Great share - IMO Over priced at the Mo - we're looking at +2 months supressed Oil IMO once slow down kicks in to the US of A FFS

Trust me I'm not Short on HBR wish I had more but this SP is dangerous - a cruel mistress. Be careful.. Forgot asteroids...

Are they setting an Oil trap?? Is it too Simples....?? Are we Whistling Dixie? GLA This SP is mental though - today Jesus..

No expert - Brent rolls over Friday, huge mention of US & China SPR release, no one has mentioned Iran talks resuming 29th Nov, add Covid Europe, Inflation jitters and Interest rate hikes, IMO DYOR expect Brent to be under pressure early doors. Bottom line energy costs is a bummer on the economic outlook - chance for Biden to make good pre Thanksgiving in tandem with China, bolster ratings. End of Nov should be a good time to acquire CNE IMO - GLA

Megla, thou doth protest too much? What is the raison d'être behind your litany of posts same theme 'SP Lower than the current SP after divi posts. Whats the MO? Quotes over the last 7 days - same theme - we get it, totally disagree mind you as the SP will be £3 less the divi - higher than today....

'Of course the share price will drop on ex-dividend date and 100% it will be lower than the current price of 186p.
Even from 225p, the share price would end up at 150p, which is significantly lower than the current price,
Current price of 192p, minus the 75p, so would be 117p.

Obviously the market will adjust the share price on the ex dividend date, but no one knows what the share price will be the day prior to this date.

All I’m trying to do is understand is how this will play out. So if the share price does stay the same as now (192p), and the market adjusts efficiently based on the divi, the company would be buying back an absolute mountain of shares at 117p with the $200m allocated.

Divi is 73p at current exchanges rates, so if the share price adjusts from 185p, the company would be buying back stock at 112p per share, so 130m shares (it won’t happen at this price).
Share price post divi adjustment would be 110p, which would allow the company to buyback 133m shares with the $200m buyback,

All I’m trying to do is understand is how this will play out. So if the share price does stay the same as now (192p), and the market adjusts efficiently based on the divi, the company would be buying back an absolute mountain of shares at 117p with the $200m allocated.

Hi Nobby, I think there's a slight misfire with £ & US$'s in your fag packet. Post N sea P27 Circular CNE Balance sheet is $1007.8m or £800m NAV before GOI. The $1,060m GOI less the $500m Divi, $200 Share consol leaves $360m adds to NAV, $360m = £267m - revised CNE NAV = £1,067m divided by 400m shares = £2.67/share NAV - assuming the $200m allocated to buy back & the extra $20m get 100m shares cancelled. This ignores any Net profit from EQT production. GLA So I disagree with Megla's £1.10 base line post all deals.

Thanks for replying, I'm stuck at the mo sorting out the chicken stew. Will reply later, did not trust the markets in oil last few days, SP' pushed up when warning signs flashing. GLA

I don't understand your commercial calculations for that SP 110p post Divi, would you care to explain please.

Thx B

Voda revenue forecast is €22.3-22.4bn & EBITDA €7.4bn, in the Q2 July to sept - Lufthansa has flown 17m Germans compared to 8.7m 2020 for hols, Football in Europe has seen crowds return, European & world Cup qualifiers, together with lighter restrictions. I'm hoping for +€22.7-9bn Rev +€7.6-8bn EBITDA and improved Full year guidance +€6bn FCF, with reduced Capex. Following on for planned monetisation of discounted global assets. As posters have stated 2 dividends in 7-8 months gives +10% timeline wise. GLA

Vodacom Group may consider a separate listing of its main South African business to unlock value, seeking to address what chief executive officer Shameel Joosub says is a stockmarket discount to the carrier’s sum-of-parts worth. expect a lot of news tmz. GLA

Expect an update on M Pesa, Voda egypt resulted in Voda getting +5% more of Vodacom. Any float should be through Africa, Vodacom have had offers for the platform. quote - South Africa’s telecoms operator Vodacom Group has received offers from parties interested in buying into its continental mobile money platform M-Pesa at a major premium. “If you do it early, yes, we know we can get multiples of 25 times and upwards. We’ve had unsolicited offers coming through in that regard. But we’re not in that space yet.” Airtel Africa recently sold minority stakes in its continental mobile money service Airtel Money for Sh32.2 billion, valuing the platform at Sh286 billion or 11.6 times the revenues of Sh24.5 billion it generated in the year ended March.
Applying a similar valuation to M-Pesa’s revenue of Sh148 billion in the same period across Africa, including Kenya, would indicate that it is worth Sh1.7 trillion. Vodacom has a market capitalisation of about Sh1.8 trillion, slightly ahead of Safaricom’s Sh1.5 trillion despite being a much larger firm by revenues and earnings among other measures. We are a clear number one in the African market. We have a base of mobile money of over 60 million in active customers. So we are about three times the size of Airtel,” Vodafone’s chief executive Nick Read said on Tuesday last week in response to an analyst who asked if the multinational will make similar deals like Airtel. “These are less capital-intensive businesses compared to core mobile so that you gives you a better return on capital profile,” Mr Joosub said. That would value M pesa extended platform at Vodacom Mkt cap levels.